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Bitcoin $BTC is sending a bearish signal that the market hasn't seen since 2022, while overall sentiment in traditional markets remains relatively stable. Against the backdrop of a cooling macro environment, the first cryptocurrency is showing weakness, prompting increasing discussions among analysts.

This concerns the dynamics of the 200-day moving average, which is deteriorating at the fastest pace since the last bear market. Analysts pointed out that historically such a collapse of momentum does not occur during healthy corrections but arises when markets are under real stress.

Meanwhile, the current situation is different from 2022. Back then, it was noted that everything was falling simultaneously. Stocks crashed, liquidity dried up, and appetite for risk vanished.

Now, however, #Nasdaq is slowing down but not crashing, and the stock market is behaving cautiously rather than capitulating. In fact, the market sees bearish weakness in Bitcoin, while broader risk sentiment is only moderately weakening.

According to experts, this means two things: the weakness of Bitcoin is real and should not be ignored, but at the same time, it arises without significant consequences for the crypto market as a whole.

JPMorgan's analysts assessed the production cost of Bitcoin $BTC at approximately $77,000, which is significantly lower than the asset is currently trading.

A prolonged stay of the price below this level may pressure miners and force high-cost operators to scale back operations, which in turn lowers the average cost in the network.

Overall, JPMorgan maintains a constructive view on the crypto market despite a sharp decline at the beginning of the year and expects that institutional flows will be the key driver of recovery in 2026.

Optimism arises against the backdrop of a deep correction, during which Bitcoin fell below the estimated mining cost — a level that historically served as a soft price floor.

Co-founder of Ethereum $ETH Vitalik Buterin and head of AI direction #Aİ at the Ethereum Foundation Davide Krapis proposed an architecture that allows for the confidentiality of user interactions with AI models. Developers also noted that the solution provides protection for services against spam and abuse.

At the core of the idea is the application of #ZK -proofs and smart contracts. The user deposits funds once and receives the opportunity to make numerous API calls to the model without revealing their identity and without linking individual requests to each other.

The proposed model is oriented towards depositing funds in the contract, after which the user proves their solvency through cryptographic mechanisms. The provider receives paid requests but cannot determine whether they belong to one person or are related to each other.

The company Input Output Global (IOG) announced the launch of #Midnight — a new blockchain network focused on privacy. This was stated by IOG founder and Cardano blockchain creator Charles Hoskinson during his speech at the Consensus Hong Kong conference.

Hoskinson reported that the long-awaited project will go live on the mainnet in the last week of March 2026 and will operate as a partner network of Cardano $ADA .

Midnight is built using zero-knowledge proofs (#ZK ), allowing for the implementation of selective disclosure mechanisms. The network provides transaction privacy by default but allows specific data to be shared with authorized parties when necessary.

The project is positioned as infrastructure for a decentralized application (dApp) that combines privacy and regulatory compliance.

On February 13, 2026, the resolution for the short-term funding of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) expires. Senate Democratic Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated that his colleagues intend to block its extension, which will cause a new government shutdown, reports The Hill.

The first shutdown lasted 43 days in the fall of 2025. The second, this time partial, lasted four days, from January 31 to February 3, 2026, inclusive. It occurred because Democrats and Republicans could not reach a consensus on DHS funding.

The left demanded a reduction in the powers of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Despite some concessions, such as a requirement for agency employees to wear body cameras, Republicans opposed any overall funding cuts, which led to the failure of the budget vote.

At the same time, the new shutdown is unlikely to significantly impact the markets, as it primarily concerns DHS and its accountable agencies, such as Customs and Border Protection. Previously, the authorities passed funding bills for most other agencies.

Negotiations between OpenAI and Nvidia over a massive deal worth up to $100 billion have effectively stalled, reports WSJ. According to sources familiar with the situation, the discussed deal has not progressed beyond the initial stage.

In September 2025, the companies presented a memorandum of understanding. According to the document, Nvidia was to build no less than 10 GW of computing power for OpenAI and invest up to $100 billion to fund the project.

As part of the agreements, the ChatGPT developer planned to rent chips from the graphics processor manufacturer.

However, after the announcement of the deal, some Nvidia employees expressed doubts about its feasibility, WSJ reports. According to sources, the company's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized in private conversations that the deal was not binding and had not been finalized.

#OpenAI #NVIDIA

The aggregator of decentralized exchanges Jupiter, which operates on the Solana blockchain, announced the integration of the prediction platform Polymarket. Users will be able to trade event contracts directly in the Jupiter interface.

In the cryptocurrency derivatives market, one of the largest liquidations was recorded on the Hyperliquid platform — a position worth over $700 million was forcibly closed. This concerns the account of a well-known trader, Garrett Bullish, who was previously considered one of the most successful participants in the marketplace.

According to data on account activity, in just two weeks, he lost $270 million, turning a historical profit of $142 million into a huge loss.

The current summary for the account — total profit and loss (PnL) -$128 million. It was his large long position that was liquidated for over $700 million.

Earlier, this account became known in October by the nickname "whale 1011," when, according to market discussions, he made significant money on political insights — a story that the trading community describes as "easy come, easy go."

$HYPE

In the US, a partial shutdown has begun due to disagreements between Democrats and Republicans regarding funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

A shutdown means that the US government is forced to suspend the operations of federal agencies due to a lack of funding. A similar situation occurred in the fall of 2025. At that time, the shutdown lasted 43 days. It ended with US President Donald Trump signing a resolution for temporary funding, extending the operation of federal structures until the end of January 2026.

It was planned that during this time, legislators would agree on the budget for the next year. Some of the bills were indeed passed, so some agencies will continue to operate.

The stumbling block was the issue of funding for DHS. Democrats insist on cutting the department's budget after the events in Minnesota.

According to CoinMarketCap, on February 2, 2026, the market capitalization of the crypto market fell by 2.5% and stands at $2.57 trillion, while the daily liquidation volume reached nearly $800 million. Bitcoin is trading above $78,000, while its drop below this value the day before caused liquidations of $2.6 billion.

Following Bitcoin, other crypto assets also noted declines. Ethereum, in particular, has dropped more than 8%. However, the coin is currently trading above $2300.

The collapse of the crypto market led to liquidations on futures contracts amounting to $796.12 million. Long position holders incurred losses on many assets amounting to $597.55 million, while short position holders faced losses of $198.58 million. A total of 200,987 traders recorded losses. The share of liquidations among Bitcoin and Ethereum traders amounted to $265.51 million and $292.98 million respectively.

Ethereum $ETH launches a standard for the global market of AI agents

Ethereum announced the rapid release of the ERC-8004 standard on the mainnet. It introduces a "portable reputation" mechanism and a discovery model, allowing AI agents from different ecosystems to interact safely with each other without centralized intermediaries.

According to the developers' idea, ERC-8004 forms a global market for AI services, where trust and reputation of the agent are preserved while transitioning between platforms, paving the way for inter-organizational AI interaction.

#Ethereum #Aİ

Crypto investors have recorded over $4.5 billion in losses on Bitcoin $BTC , experts from the analytical platform CryptoQuant reported.

According to their data, this is the highest figure in the last three years. The company believes that such a level of capitulation may indicate the approach of a local market bottom.

However, despite the pessimism of some market participants, large Bitcoin whales continue to increase their positions. As reported by Santiment, wallets with a balance of at least 1000 BTC have collectively increased their reserves by 104,340 coins — approximately 1.5%.

Analysts also noted that addresses with a minimum balance of 1000 BTC hold 7.17 million BTC, the highest level since September 15, 2025.

The Optimism blockchain team $OP presented a long-term strategy for the transition of the Superchain ecosystem to post-quantum cryptography, warning that the emergence of large-scale quantum computers in the future could threaten the underlying cryptographic mechanisms of Ethereum $ETH and L2 networks.

The company emphasized that "signatures and cryptographic commitments are the foundation of the system. If they are broken, everything built on top of them will be at risk."

At the same time, OP Stack has already been designed to replace signature schemes through hard forks, so the transition is seen more as a coordination task rather than a complete overhaul of the architecture.

#Optimism #L2

The capitalization of stablecoins in the Ethereum network fell from $162 billion to $155 billion in less than a week. This was reported by analysts from the CryptoQuant platform. According to them, this is the first such reduction in the current market cycle.

CryptoQuant noted that the decrease in capitalization indicates a liquidity outflow from the market. Investors are converting stablecoins into fiat currencies, likely for investments in other assets.
$USDT

Swiss banking holding UBS Group AG is preparing to open access to cryptocurrency trading for some clients of private banking, which could become one of the most notable steps towards digital assets among leading global wealth managers.

According to sources familiar with the process, the bank is currently selecting partners to launch the crypto product. Discussions have been ongoing for several months, and a final decision has not yet been made. Sources emphasized that the process is confidential.

At the first stage, UBS plans to allow selected clients of its Swiss private bank to buy and sell Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH . Eventually, the offering may be scaled to other markets, including the Asia-Pacific region and the USA.

Tether Gold ($XAUT) strengthened its dominance in the market of gold-backed stablecoins — the token surpassed the $2.2 billion mark in the total market capitalization of the segment. This is according to the report by the company #Tether for the IV quarter of 2025.

According to the analysis, in 2025, the segment of gold-backed stablecoins demonstrated rapid growth: the total capitalization rose from approximately $1.3 billion to over $4 billion.

The drivers included historical price highs for gold, geopolitical fragmentation, and increased demand from institutional and digital investors for "safe havens" that remain fully on-chain.

The head of the board of directors of BitMine, Tom Lee, stated that the current rally in gold and silver prices is natural and does not contradict the rise of other assets. However, according to him, the price of Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH will rise when precious metals stop.

In Lee's opinion, precious metals confirm their status as a full-fledged asset class, with geopolitical tension, a weak dollar, and soft central bank policies serving as the drivers of growth.

The expert believes that the cryptocurrency market is still recovering from a massive reduction in leverage. At the same time, fundamental indicators are improving, and institutional interest is growing. He also noted that tokenization and blockchain continue to integrate with traditional finance.

According to expert Garrett Jin's analysis, Ethereum $ETH entered the fifth wave of the upward trend that began in April last year. He notes that the December attempt to continue the downward movement failed, indicating seller exhaustion.

ETH price targets: base target — $5413, aggressive target — $7155.

Garrett Jin is a former head of the BitForex exchange. In the crypto community, he is also associated with one of the OG whales, which is why his forecasts often attract heightened market attention.

Analyst Willie Wu expects a short-term bullish impulse in Bitcoin from the end of January to February. According to his assessment, Bitcoin $BTC may test the $98,000-100,000 range and even examine market reaction around historical highs.

Meanwhile, the overall forecast for 2026 remains bearish. In his words, liquidity is weakening relative to price momentum — characteristic of the final stage of the cycle, when support for sustained growth is already insufficient.

He emphasizes that there is no confirmed bear market yet, but a shift in outlook could only happen with a strong inflow of spot, long-term liquidity in the coming months.

Andrew Tate stated that Greenland is being considered a potential key location for Bitcoin mining $BTC due to its cold climate and cheap energy.

According to him, this could allow the U.S. to accumulate bitcoins at a cost below the market price and gain a strategic advantage.

If this scenario were realized, mining in Greenland could impact the global BTC supply and shift the balance of power in the crypto market in favor of the U.S.

#AndrewTateAlert #BTCreserve