For the first time since Feb 2024, Chinaās new-energy vehicle (NEV) sales declined year-over-year. January retail sales dropped 20% to 596,000 units, while overall passenger car sales fell 14% YoY and 32% from December. $TWT
The main drag? Expired tax exemptions and fading subsidy momentum. After years of explosive growth, the market appears to be entering a ānormal adjustmentā phase. $TOSHI
But itās not all bearish.
šØš³ Chinese automakers are accelerating overseas expansion: ⢠Passenger car exports +52% YoY in January ⢠NEV exports more than doubled ⢠2025 total car exports hit 8.32M units (+30%) ⢠EV & hybrid exports surged 70% to 3.43M
Teslaās Shanghai plant delivered 69,129 cars domestically and exported 50,644 units in January. $TNSR
Short term: Lunar New Year seasonality could make February the yearly bottom. Long term: Competition intensifies, global expansion becomes key.
China EV story isnāt ending ā itās evolving.
Asian stocks hit fresh records as US data reshapes rate bets š $AA
Asian markets climbed to new highs, led by strong gains in Koreaās Kospi and Japanās benchmarks, with tech stocks driving momentum. MSCI Asia-Pacific is up around 13% in just six weeks ā a powerful start to the year. $ME
The catalyst? A hotter-than-expected US jobs report.
Solid labor data cooled expectations for a near-term Fed rate cut. March cut odds dropped sharply, Treasury yields jumped, and the dollar regained some strength. However, traders still see at least two cuts later this year. All eyes now turn to Fridayās US inflation print for the next move. $BTR
The yen stood out, strengthening further as markets react to Japanās election outcome and hopes for fiscal discipline under PM Takaichi.
Oil is ticking higher as traders weigh fresh U.S.āIran tensions against rising U.S. stockpiles. $GRASS
Brent is hovering near $69.7 and WTI around $65, with prices up roughly 0.4% after stronger gains in the previous session. The market is focused on geopolitical risk, as President Trump signaled talks with Tehran will continue but left the door open to further military presence in the Middle East if negotiations stall. $ALLO
Any escalation that threatens Iranian supply or regional shipping routes could push WTI firmly above the $65ā$66 zone. On the flip side, easing tensions may drag prices back toward $60ā$61 as profit-taking kicks in.
Fundamentally, a strong U.S. jobs report is supporting demand expectations. However, a surprise 8.5M barrel jump in U.S. crude inventories is capping upside momentum. $pippin
For now, oil remains geopolitically supported, but headline-driven volatility is likely to stay high. #write2earnšš¹
š¦šŗ Aussie Dollar Surges as Yield Advantage Expands $BERA
The Australian dollar pushed to a fresh 3-year high near 0.7146, fueled by widening yield spreads and strong momentum buying. $DYM
š¹ Australiaās 3-year yields now sit 75 bps above U.S. Treasuries ā a massive swing from last yearās 60 bps discount. š¹ RBA has shifted from rate cuts to hikes, with markets pricing an 80% chance of another hike in May. š¹ Policy rate could reach 4.35% by year-end if inflation stays sticky. $LINEA
Meanwhile: ā¢ šŗšø Markets expect ~54 bps of Fed cuts in 2026 ā¢ šŖšŗ ECB seen on hold through 2026 ā¢ š³šæ RBNZ likely to stay at 2.25% next week
The yield gap is driving capital into AUD, with technical resistance ahead at 0.7158, then 0.7282.
As long as spreads keep widening, dips may stay supported.
Dollar Surges After Strong U.S. Jobs Report šµš
The U.S. dollar rallied Wednesday after Januaryās jobs data crushed expectations, reinforcing confidence in the resilience of the American economy.
š¹ 130K jobs added vs. 70K forecast š¹ Unemployment dips to 4.3% š¹ Markets now see a 94% chance of no rate cut at the next Fed meeting $ALLO
The dollar gained sharply against the Swiss franc and euro, with the DXY rebounding after three days of losses. Strong payrolls + firm earnings = reduced urgency for Fed easing. $BERA
However, markets still price in about 50bps of cuts later this year, keeping rate-cut hopes alive for June.
Notable FX moves:
šÆšµ Yen continues outperforming after Japanās political shift
š¦šŗ Aussie hits a 3-year high as RBA signals inflation fight isnāt over
š¬š§ Pound edges higher
šØš³ Offshore yuan slightly weaker $KERNEL
Bottom line: Strong labor data supports the dollar short term, but rate-cut expectations havenāt fully disappeared. Volatility likely continues in FX markets. #write2earnšš¹
Bitcoin may have just printed a local bottom near $60K.
According to K33, last weekās sell-off showed clear ācapitulation-likeā signals across spot, ETFs, and derivatives ā the kind of extremes typically seen near cycle lows.
Hereās what stood out:
⢠Daily RSI dropped to 15.9 ā one of the most oversold readings since 2015 (only March 2020 & Nov 2018 were lower). ⢠95th percentile spot volumes printed back-to-back ā something last seen during the FTX collapse. ⢠Funding rates flipped deeply negative (down to -15% annualized), showing aggressive short positioning. ⢠Options skew moved into extreme defensive territory. ⢠Fear & Greed Index hit 6 ā second lowest ever. ⢠IBIT saw record trading volume ($10B+) alongside heavy ETF outflows.
Historically, this kind of panic + volume spike + extreme sentiment tends to form local bottoms, though consolidation and retests are common afterward.
K33 expects a range phase between $60Kā$75K in the coming weeks/months, with reduced momentum and lower probability of significant downside below $60K.
Capitulation often feels worst at the bottom. The data suggests sellers may already be exhausted ā now the market likely cools off before the next major move. #write2earnšš¹
Silver jumped more than 4% to around $84.3 after the latest US jobs report, even as it trimmed part of its earlier rally. $STG
January nonfarm payrolls came in strong at 130K, more than double expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 4.3%. The solid labor data pushed back against aggressive Fed rate-cut bets, lifting yields and capping some of silverās upside. $UNI
Still, the bigger picture remains supportive. Markets are continuing to price in rate cuts later this year, and with mixed growth signals and softer retail sales earlier, silver is holding firm. Its dual appeal as both a safe-haven and industrial metal keeps the broader bullish structure intact ā despite elevated volatility. $TRIA #write2earnšš¹
š¬š§ Pound Rebounds as Political Pressure Eases $FHE
Sterling pushed higher on Wednesday, gaining ground against both the dollar and the euro as concerns over PM Keir Starmerās leadership cooled.
GBP/USD climbed to around 1.3708, helped partly by a softer U.S. dollar ahead of key jobs data. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP slipped back toward 0.8690, reversing earlier moves seen when political uncertainty weighed on the pound earlier this week. $ZRO
Starmer reaffirmed his commitment to remain in office, easing fears of leadership turmoil ā at least for now. Political stability is offering short-term support, though traders remain cautious. $NIL
On the monetary side, the Bank of Englandās recent narrow vote to hold rates has kept March rate cut expectations alive (~60% probability). If UK GDP data this week surprises to the upside, those easing bets could shift quickly.
š Key drivers ahead: ⢠U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls ⢠UK GDP (Jan & Q4 2025) ⢠BoE rate cut expectations
For now, sterling sentiment has stabilized ā but both politics and rate policy remain major swing factors. #write2earnšš¹
Apple is facing a sharp rise in memory chip costs ā mobile DRAM prices are up over 200% since mid-2025 and NAND isnāt far behind. That could push iPhone component costs up around 15% and trim margins by roughly 1.5 percentage points over time. $SLAY
But the bigger story isnāt costs ā itās AI.
Bernstein just raised its Apple price target to $340, arguing that āApple Intelligenceā and Siri 2.0 will be the real catalyst this year. By combining on-device AI with cloud-based models through its hybrid architecture, Apple aims to deliver advanced features while keeping privacy as a key differentiator. $ZRO
Yes, iPhone prices may rise. Yes, some users may trade down. But AI-driven features could spark a fresh upgrade cycle ā especially if the most powerful capabilities require newer hardware.
Rising input costs are a headwind. A major AI upgrade cycle is a tailwind.
Saylor Doubles Down: Strategy to Buy BTC Every Quarter ā No Matter What
Michael Saylor isnāt flinching.
Despite Bitcoinās recent drop and MSTR sliding nearly 70% from its highs, Strategy says it will keep buying Bitcoin every single quarter ā regardless of volatility. $POWER
Saylor made it clear: even if BTC falls 90% for years, the company plans to refinance its $8B+ debt rather than sell its holdings. Liquidation is ānot part of the plan.ā $PIPPIN
š Current position: ⢠714,644 BTC (~$49B value) ⢠~$8B in debt (mostly convertible notes) ⢠Short interest rising ā about 10% of float ⢠BTC trading near $69K
While short sellers increase bets against MSTR, Saylor remains confident in Bitcoinās long-term value and says the company has enough liquidity to manage obligations for the next couple of years.
Love it or hate it ā this is conviction at scale.
Gold and silver bounced Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields slid to near one-month lows following weak December retail sales data. Slower consumer spending is fueling expectations that the Fed may need to cut rates sooner and more aggressively in 2026.
Spot gold climbed toward $5,050, with futures moving above $5,070. Silver rebounded over 2% after Tuesdayās sharp 3% drop, showing how quickly volatility can reset positioning. Platinum and palladium also posted solid gains.
With markets now pricing in at least two rate cuts this year, all eyes shift to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report and upcoming inflation data. If economic softness continues, lower yields could keep supporting precious metals in the near term. #write2earnšš¹
Gold is holding firm above $5,000 as softer US retail sales strengthen the case for Fed rate cuts. Lower rates tend to support non-yielding assets like gold, and that narrative is back in focus.
After the late-January spike to $5,595 and the sharp 13% pullback, price action is stabilizing around the $5K zone. Bulls appear to be regaining control, with several major banks projecting a renewed push higher ā some even targeting $6,000 by year-end.
With rate expectations shifting and the dollar cooling off, goldās macro backdrop remains supportive. The next key catalyst: incoming US jobs data and Fed signals.
Volatility isnāt over ā but the broader uptrend story is still alive. #write2earnšš¹ $XAU $XAG
The Chinese yuan edged lower on Wednesday even after the PBOC delivered its strongest daily midpoint since May 2023. Softer January inflation data and ongoing factory deflation reinforced expectations of further easing, keeping pressure on the currency. $ATM
USDCNY hovered near 6.915, while 10-year bond futures climbed to their highest since November, signaling falling yield expectations. Analysts see Chinaās 10-year yield potentially drifting toward 1.6% from 1.79% if loose policy continues. $OG
Interestingly, the central bank set the fixing stronger but still weaker than market estimates ā a move traders view as controlled appreciation rather than aggressive tightening.
After hitting a near three-year high ahead of Lunar New Year corporate demand, the yuan now faces a tug-of-war between policy support and easing expectations. $RIVER
š Key watch: Any shift in PBOC stance and post-holiday liquidity flows.
Gold is hovering near 2-week highs above $5,070/oz as softer U.S. data boosts bets on a more dovish Fed. Cooling retail sales, weaker jobs signals, and easing inflation pressure are lifting non-yielding bullion. $PIPPIN
Whatās supporting prices:
š Lower rate expectations
š¦ Strong central bank demand (China buying for 15 straight months) $POWER
Silver trimmed earlier losses and hovered near $82.5/oz, down about 1%, as traders locked in profits after the recent surge. Volatility is still high following Januaryās historic liquidation. $GHST
Weaker US data ā flat December retail sales and a -0.1% GDP control group ā revived bets on easier Fed policy, offering some support to non-yielding metals. That softer demand picture is cooling rate expectations and easing inflation pressure.
Still, silver remains ~30% below its late-January peak after a brutal selloff that briefly wiped out nearly half its value. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blamed recent wild swings on speculative flows, especially from China.
All eyes now on upcoming US jobs and inflation data for the next clue on the Fedās rate path. $XAG #write2earnšš¹
š¬š§ Sterling Slips as Politics + BoE Uncertainty Weigh
Pound edged lower as the USD selloff cooled and UK-specific risks stayed in focus. $BLUAI
Whatās moving GBP?
š¦ BoE outlook: Rates held, but a tight 5ā4 vote + guidance hints at cuts if inflation keeps easing ā dovish signal.
šļø Politics: PM Starmer under pressure, leadership chatter lingering despite party backing. Uncertainty = GBP drag. $FHE
š Markets: UK 2Y yields steady after a sharp drop last week; EUR/GBP pushing higher.
Price check
GBP/USD ā 1.367 (down)
EUR/GBP ā 0.872 (up) $ALLO
Takeaway: Near-term pound direction stays fragile. Politics + easing expectations cap upside, even as the UK economy shows early recovery signs. Traders eye US data next for the USD leg. šš· #write2earnšš¹
š¢ļø Oil Edges Lower as U.S.āIran Tensions Stay in Play $LYN
Oil gave back a bit of ground after yesterdayās bounce. Brent slipped to ~$68.9 while WTI eased near $63.6 as traders reassess geopolitical risk. $OG
Markets are watching U.S.āIran signals closely. While concerns around the Strait of Hormuz offered some support earlier, prices are still struggling to break above the $70 level. Some analysts believe sustained high fuel costs could eventually push Washington toward negotiations, capping upside for crude. $FHE
For now: tension premium is there, but momentum looks fragile. š #write2earnšš¹
š¬š§ UK watchdog turns up heat on Apple & Google app stores $BEAT
The UK Competition and Markets Authority is asking for public feedback on new commitments from Apple and Google aimed at aligning their app stores with upcoming digital competition rules. $BERA
Whatās on the table?
Fair, transparent, and non-discriminatory app reviews
Neutral app rankings (no favoritism to their own services)
No misuse of developer data during app approvals $pippin
This is part of the UKās Digital Markets, Competition and Consumer Bill, targeting Big Tech dominance. Apple and Google were officially flagged as āstrategicā platforms in 2025.
š Feedback deadline: March 3 āļø Rules kick in: April 1
Market reaction: AAPL ā1.26% | GOOG +0.40%
Bigger picture: tighter regulation = potential long-term shift in app store economics š #write2earnšš¹