静静看趋势

The current liquidity pool depth is very limited, with a market cap only maintained at several million dollars, but the community discussion remains highly active, with daily interactions extraordinarily vibrant. Meanwhile, large funds are gradually flowing in an inconspicuous manner—this is often a typical sign of the main forces quietly accumulating chips at low levels.

Despite the high market attention, the price has always been suppressed around 0.0000120, showing obvious characteristics of price control. This situation of "low liquidity, high attention" coexisting with "price stagnation" is usually a classic manifestation of the main capital's consolidation phase.

For such low market cap, low liquidity assets, once market sentiment is ignited or the main forces complete their layout, buying pressure may experience explosive growth, driving the price to achieve several times increases in a short period.

#why

Yesterday morning it was said there would be a second probe, and it happened last night. Before going to bed last night, I had a short position set to break below 87000, 2300, and added to the short position at 100. The take profit is still close to the low point from the night before last. If it breaks below the previous low, it will create a new low, so the short position should keep a trailing stop. If a new low is made, maximize profits; otherwise, if you exit all at once as it keeps going lower, you might hesitate to short again.

Two probes to the bottom, there is still no clear "bottom". Today, BTC resistance is 77850-78200, ETH resistance is 2282-2326, SOL resistance is 102.5-104.25, and it is still possible to short and add to positions as it rises.

My old group friends are preparing to wait for the "coin aid" in the crypto circle that leaks chest and butt to switch careers and buy in again. He believes that waiting until no one cares and buying back will definitely be the best interval.

I agree with this point, but I think that these leaks cannot fully reflect the market. Just like a prostitute selling for 2000 a night and one selling for 500 a night, it does not affect maintaining a basic life.
Coin aids can completely continue to mix in Twitter, but the dog food has changed from salmon to cornmeal.

I think the best interval, besides the four-year cycle time interval, should be when some KOLs run out of money to renew their Twitter blue V.

Do you agree?

Hahaha... before it was all about gold, U.S. stocks, and silver hitting new highs, and now it's good, it's not just the cryptocurrency market that's getting criticized. It's not just the cryptocurrency market that's falling; global assets are all declining. Feels good, right?

But should ordinary people stock up on gold? Let's get to the conclusion first: yes, but it's not necessary. Why isn't it necessary? Isn't gold rising well? And silver too. Yes, but you must always remember that gold is a low-volatility asset. Don't think that just because gold has doubled in the last year or two, it can rise significantly; in the long term, it is a low-volatility asset, so don't get it wrong. And for ordinary people, low-volatility assets are of no use.

If you have a principal of 100,000, and some people even invest 1,000 a month, what are they doing? No matter how much it rises, it's not enough for a few meals. Gold is a hedging asset against risk assets. Just a few examples: from 2000 to 2002, when the internet bubble burst and tech stocks generally fell by 50%, gold rose by 12%; during the global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, stocks generally fell by nearly 60%, and gold rose by about 25%; in the year the COVID-19 pandemic started, stocks fell by about 35%, while gold rose 24% for the entire year.

Whenever the world falls into panic, gold becomes impressive. But have you ever thought, since it is so impressive, why hasn't it outperformed the S&P, NASDAQ, or Bitcoin in the long run? Almost no one has outperformed. That's because when everyone else is impressive, it doesn't necessarily have to be; sometimes it even falls. That's its characteristic.

Ordinary people can allocate some gold, which isn't a mistake, but it's not necessary because in the long run, holding gold doesn't significantly help your asset growth. But if you are wealthy, say, with more than ten million in high-liquid investable assets, should you allocate some gold? Yes, to guard against extreme uncontrollable situations in the world. The probability is extremely low, but you need to be foolproof. You need to ensure that if the world falls apart, and your house, car, and money become worthless, you can still be wealthier than most people.

What ordinary people need to consider is only to concentrate advantageous forces to advance; the 'extremely low probability of falling back into poverty' has nothing to do with you. If you are not rich, how can you fall back into poverty?

If I say that the counterfeit season was supposed to arrive in Q4 2025, but was forcefully interrupted due to the 10.11 incident, causing blood to flow in the cryptocurrency world, later the market took a whole quarter to barely get back on its feet. Do you believe it?

Breakthrough is the "bait of the doghouse," and the pullback is "your buying point."

Waiting for the pullback is using a portion of the fish body profit to exchange for three things:

1. Exchange certainty, let the false breakthrough run its course, filtering out the burrs. Only true strength can support the structure.

2. Exchange clear stop-loss, the low point of the pullback is a natural defensive position. Break the position and leave, don't fantasize, and maintain discipline.

3. Exchange initiative, the market rarely offers only one chance. Waiting for the pullback means waiting for the market to give you a more comfortable position with a better risk-reward ratio.

Chasing highs can easily lead to FOMO, resulting in randomly opening positions without setting stop-losses, with thoughts like "the leverage isn't maxed out," "the position isn't big enough," and "this time I must catch it."

Waiting for the pullback allows the market to come to you. Let go of the obsession of "eating from head to tail," slow down, especially let your emotions slow down. Calculate your position clearly and control your emotions; often, this way, you can end up with the most substantial portion in the end.

I don't know if everyone feels like me
I no longer have any passion for memes
And I'm desensitized to the word "building"
Then a meme says that those who are building
Are all trapped leeks

Ever since #I Came Here, and #I Love You, etc.
Going on Alpha is just good news exhausted, starting to sell off

No matter what you buy, it's a loss
200k can water, 100k can water, 50k can also water
As long as you are not holding the bottom chips, it's basically a loss
The most absurd thing is that no matter the price
As long as you bought in, it's the highest point
And then it's an endless decline

Many BSC comrades who used to interact frequently on X have also disappeared
I don't know if they have lost everything or if they have achieved financial freedom
I hope everyone has made money.

Actually, yesterday at 12:00 PM on January 25, the odds on Polymarket for "Will the U.S. government shut down this month?" were directly pushed to 80%, and the market almost implicitly assumed that the government would shut down.

I was thinking at the time: doesn't that mean BTC is going to drop again?

But strangely, the market had no reaction at all.
It wasn't until early this morning that the price suddenly started to plummet, as if everyone collectively "woke up."

In an instant, I even wondered: am I too sensitive, or is the market really lagging behind?

Regardless, one thing is becoming increasingly clear:
The odds on Polymarket that are strongly related to macro and policy must be closely monitored in the future.

DASH has always respected the EMA21 moving average.

Breakthrough and pullback, supporting the rebound.

Breaking below the rebound, pressing down on the opening drop.

Now DASH is quickly returning to the daily EMA21.

Around the moving average, waiting for intraday oversold, finding a position to go long, watching for a rise to the previous high, with a stop loss placed below the moving average.

The gap between Bitcoin and gold and silver is becoming increasingly large. The price of the coin needs to rise to $270,000 each for its market value to surpass silver and enter the global second position; the price of the coin needs to rise to $1,670,000 each for its market value to surpass gold and become the highest valued asset in the world. It is expected that there will need to be three or four more bull markets for this to be possible.

btc is not a safe-haven asset but a risk asset
We can see
Every time there is a war risk, gold rises sharply while btc falls
When the world is at peace
Gold falls sharply while btc rebounds

Just over 400,000 copied a bit of the new disk troll $TROLL !

BSC's local dog #MEME market has already entered the international concept market driven by $memes and $1, we can’t just focus on playing Chinese disks

#TROLL is considered a classic concept, having launched many disks on SOL. Since we want to seize the market, using old universal concepts for new disks has become the best entry point. The first wave on the K-line dropped from 2.5 million, washing it thoroughly, and the consolidation started around four to five hundred thousand

Moreover, the trend is very similar to $beepe, both first retracing from over 2 million to several hundred thousand, then pulling up, not excluding the possibility of being the same operator

If BSC is determined to de-spiritualize, many international concept million-dollar disks will definitely be born recently, and even directly go to Alpha. #TROLL ’s second segment has the same hope of returning to a million!

The most exquisite scam of this era is making the majority believe they are not at the gambling table.
When everyone is passively participating in the asset roulette, the awake speculators at least know they are taking risks, while the blindfolded masses treat shackles as amulets and fate as certainty.

Education does not equal cognition. I think many who complain about their education after completing a PhD have cognitive abilities similar to those of a person with average intelligence. They believe that after achieving this level of education and doing the same work, private company bosses should pay them several tens of thousands every month. They are not NPCs; they hire you only because you can create greater value, such as government subsidies for high-tech talent.

Many people feel that after spending several years and tuition, during which they hardly earn any money, they see other classmates making quite a bit. In fact, they might envy your higher education and greater future achievements.

It's just that you didn't make the right choice. Those who reach a PhD but don't go into the civil service system to exploit the loopholes always want to mix in private companies. Isn't that just making the private company bosses look foolish?

Whether something can succeed has nothing to do with your effort; trying too hard can actually lead to failure. The most important thing in life is to know how to play. When you play, your heart relaxes, your energy flows, and your mind becomes clear. In scientific terms, this is called dopamine, and in Taoist philosophy, it's referred to as achieving great use without intention. Treat your goals as a game; whether good, bad, or ugly, consider everything as an experience. It doesn't require effort, but rather inspires creativity. Cultivation is not about holding back, but finding a rhythm in relaxation.

炒山寨跟谈恋爱很像，如果你总让一个人欺负你，还一直反省是不是自己的错，那你一定是最后输的那个人

一个币让你输一两次就够了，及时止损，不要反思是不是自己买点不好，去期盼浪子回头金不换

就是这币太畜生了，而你可能也错过了她最好的年华，换一个就好了

比如Aster、Giggle，打损我一次我就永远不会再买回来了

Leek: There is a project that skyrocketed several times and then started to buy back, but the project party has been buying back while the price keeps falling. Why is that?

Professor: The market has given it a pricing it shouldn't have, reaching a height it shouldn't have.

Leek: But it has money! It has already started buying back every day.

Professor: A simple algorithm: if more is sold than bought, the price will fall. So, who has so much stock to sell? (Where is the money coming from?)

From a daily perspective, Bitcoin has been negatively impacted by Trump's new tariff policy in the short term, resulting in a rise followed by a fall. The K-line has experienced four consecutive downward trends, but there is support from the medium-term moving average below. The range of 90000 to 92000 is a relatively strong support area. If it can hold this level in the short term, after building momentum, it will continue to challenge the previous high of 98000 or even the 100000 mark.

A cold hard fact: Bitcoin is not yet ready for "central bank reserves"

Assuming you are China, Russia, or the European Union, and you want to get rid of 2-3 trillion in US debt, gold had a market value of 20 trillion last year, which can absorb this level of capital inflow;

However, with a market value of 2 trillion, Bitcoin's capacity is far from enough.

So last year, Dongda became the "micro strategy of gold"

But gold vs Bitcoin is not an either-or situation; we will see that the balance sheets of enterprises and some sovereign nations will gradually begin to show BTC, which will become a tool to combat currency devaluation alongside gold.

Ordinary traders don't lack some mysterious secret technique, but rather the most tedious, solid fundamental skills and discipline.

100 trades of deliberate practice will help you master risk management and mechanical stop-losses.

500 trades of deliberate practice will make you understand that there is a distance as great as Mount Everest between knowing and doing.

1000 trades of deliberate practice will allow you to experience statistical advantages and witness the charm of the law of large numbers.

Tedious repetition is the only path to financial freedom.

What is effective loss?

Effective stop-loss means that even if you lose, you must understand the loss clearly.

At the planned point, decisively exit, even saying: 'Damn it, the market is impressive, I admit defeat.'

Ineffective loss is the kind of loss that drags on: always feeling you can hold on a bit longer, and while losing money, still wanting to wrestle with the market.

The former is discipline, while the latter is emotion.