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买方研究员 | 跨市场宏观视野，专注链上数据分析与二级市场策略。#BTC #ETH #SOL #BNB 💎，记录个人复盘，非投资建议
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$BTC experienced 24 hours of intense volatility and $500 million in mutual liquidation, what is the next target for the dealer?
There is some liquidity below ($63k-$66k). The liquidity scale above ($69k-$72k) is twice that of below! According to the liquidity magnet theory, the price is more likely to be attracted towards the $69k-$72k range to hunt for the densely packed stop losses of short positions there. #BTC
There is some liquidity below ($63k-$66k). The liquidity scale above ($69k-$72k) is twice that of below! According to the liquidity magnet theory, the price is more likely to be attracted towards the $69k-$72k range to hunt for the densely packed stop losses of short positions there. #BTC
$BTC The overall trend is quite weak after the initial rebound. The bulls failed to effectively break through the $72K+ resistance zone, and the price has instead come under pressure again.
Unless it can regain the $68k level, the short-term focus should be on the support situation at the retracement levels. #加密市场观察 #BTC
Unless it can regain the $68k level, the short-term focus should be on the support situation at the retracement levels. #加密市场观察 #BTC
$BTC failed to stand firm at the 70,000 mark, which is a dangerous signal. Now, all eyes are focused on $66k - $68k.
This is not just a support level, but also a 'sandbag formation' for the bulls.
If it breaks below this area, the situation will become very ugly. It may trigger an accelerated decline and spread panic. Be prepared for risk control!
#BTC #trading
This is not just a support level, but also a 'sandbag formation' for the bulls.
If it breaks below this area, the situation will become very ugly. It may trigger an accelerated decline and spread panic. Be prepared for risk control!
#BTC #trading
The indicator shows that $BTC has entered the 'accumulation zone', but this does not mean that an absolute bottom has appeared.
The accumulation zone is a price range, not a specific point.
History tells us that often after entering this area, there will be a deeper pullback to test human nature.
Build positions in batches and reserve bullets to cope with the possible final drop. #加密市场观察 #BTC
The accumulation zone is a price range, not a specific point.
History tells us that often after entering this area, there will be a deeper pullback to test human nature.
Build positions in batches and reserve bullets to cope with the possible final drop. #加密市场观察 #BTC
The most fundamental driving force of the market is capital. Data shows that the inflow of funds from new investors has turned negative. The current sell-off is fierce due to the lack of 'absorption' of new capital.
In a bull market, pullbacks attract capital to enter more quickly; whereas in the early stages of a bear market, weakness only triggers more withdrawals. We are currently in the latter situation. Without new money, it is difficult to reverse #BTC☀️ #加密市场观察
In a bull market, pullbacks attract capital to enter more quickly; whereas in the early stages of a bear market, weakness only triggers more withdrawals. We are currently in the latter situation. Without new money, it is difficult to reverse #BTC☀️ #加密市场观察
Short-term investors are in floating losses, and the upper 80,000 lock-up is the biggest resistance
Changes in BTC chip distribution
After Bitcoin hit a low of $60,000, there has been increased turnover activity among chips in the lower range. Spot ETFs continued to flow in on Monday, and American investors have started buying on dips.
Currently, MicroStrategy, which is in a floating loss position, purchased 1142 Bitcoins last week.
However, we still need to look at the Coinbase premium indicator. After a brief positive premium, it often signals a peak in the rebound, and it currently seems like there is still some room for a rebound.
The market has conducted an extreme stress test on short-term Bitcoin holders. This round of testing has already pushed the short-term holders' MVRV indicator to around 0.75.
After Bitcoin hit a low of $60,000, there has been increased turnover activity among chips in the lower range. Spot ETFs continued to flow in on Monday, and American investors have started buying on dips.
Currently, MicroStrategy, which is in a floating loss position, purchased 1142 Bitcoins last week.
However, we still need to look at the Coinbase premium indicator. After a brief positive premium, it often signals a peak in the rebound, and it currently seems like there is still some room for a rebound.
The market has conducted an extreme stress test on short-term Bitcoin holders. This round of testing has already pushed the short-term holders' MVRV indicator to around 0.75.
MVRV Z-Score shows that Ethereum has entered the surrender zone, but we need to know the data: recent low: -0.42, historical low in 2018: -0.76.
Although we are in the bottom area, the strength is still insufficient compared to the extreme bottoms of 2018 and 2022.
History shows that before forming a true structural bottom, the market still has room for further decline #ETH #加密市场观察
Although we are in the bottom area, the strength is still insufficient compared to the extreme bottoms of 2018 and 2022.
History shows that before forming a true structural bottom, the market still has room for further decline #ETH #加密市场观察
Currently presenting a typical "price consolidation ➕ declining open interest" pattern.
This means we are in a deleveraging system:
1. Funds are flowing out, positions are closing rather than increasing.
2. There is no fresh leveraged capital entering the market.
The current environment does not support explosive breakthroughs.
True directional choice must wait until open interest stabilizes and begins to rebuild. Before that, the market is likely to continue in a dull fluctuation. #加密市场观察 #BTC走势分析 $BTC
This means we are in a deleveraging system:
1. Funds are flowing out, positions are closing rather than increasing.
2. There is no fresh leveraged capital entering the market.
The current environment does not support explosive breakthroughs.
True directional choice must wait until open interest stabilizes and begins to rebuild. Before that, the market is likely to continue in a dull fluctuation. #加密市场观察 #BTC走势分析 $BTC
The short liquidity around $72K has been completely cleared, and as the main fuel above has been nearly exhausted, the short-term upward momentum may weaken. We are entering a consolidation phase, and before new liquidity gathers, the market is expected to fluctuate up and down, lacking a clear direction #BTC清算热力图 #BTC
ETH/BTC is currently showing weak trends, indicating that liquidity is drying up. This structure is usually very unfavorable for altcoins. If ETH cannot hold, other coins will only drop deeper.
Great caution is required for long positions; now is not the time to be aggressively buying #加密市场观察 #ETH/BTC #Alts
Great caution is required for long positions; now is not the time to be aggressively buying #加密市场观察 #ETH/BTC #Alts
As the price broke below the $70000 mark, the market is likely to weaken in the short term.
This week is expected to enter a slow consolidation phase. There will be sporadic selling pressure and gradual declines, but a sharp one-sided surge or drop is not anticipated.
This kind of market is most frustrating for the mindset; maintain patience and observe more while acting less. #BTC #加密市场观察
This week is expected to enter a slow consolidation phase. There will be sporadic selling pressure and gradual declines, but a sharp one-sided surge or drop is not anticipated.
This kind of market is most frustrating for the mindset; maintain patience and observe more while acting less. #BTC #加密市场观察
LTH/STH SOPR ratio is continuously declining, and the trading profitability of long-term holders is weakening relative to short-term holders. Simply put, the profit margin of old players is being compressed by the market.
This pattern has appeared in every previous bear market cycle.
Do not ignore the regularity of on-chain behavior, which indicates that the market is currently still in a difficult phase of de-bubbling or bottoming out, rather than the starting point of a frenzied bull market. #比特币走势分析 #btc #加密市场
This pattern has appeared in every previous bear market cycle.
Do not ignore the regularity of on-chain behavior, which indicates that the market is currently still in a difficult phase of de-bubbling or bottoming out, rather than the starting point of a frenzied bull market. #比特币走势分析 #btc #加密市场
According to the market psychology cycle chart, the BTC/gold ratio has reached the anger stage.
Investors have transitioned from panic to anger about market performance, which is a key part of forming the bottom structure. But please note, we may still be far from the true cycle bottom.
Only when anger turns to despair and silence does the major cycle begin. Patiently wait for this final washout. #BTC #加密市场观察
Investors have transitioned from panic to anger about market performance, which is a key part of forming the bottom structure. But please note, we may still be far from the true cycle bottom.
Only when anger turns to despair and silence does the major cycle begin. Patiently wait for this final washout. #BTC #加密市场观察
Bitcoin returns above $70k, the next resistance level is $74k - $76k, which is also near Michael Saylor's average holding price. The market often likes to test the breakeven points of these 'big players', where there will be a lot of turnover and competition.
If the bulls cannot maintain momentum and fall below the $66k - $68k range, then this breakout may just be a flash in the pan, and we will return to this week's low #BTC #加密市场观察 #比特币反弹
If the bulls cannot maintain momentum and fall below the $66k - $68k range, then this breakout may just be a flash in the pan, and we will return to this week's low #BTC #加密市场观察 #比特币反弹
Ethereum successfully broke through the psychological barrier of $2100, but the key now is not the intraday breakout, but the daily close.
If the daily close can firmly stay above $2100, it will open the door to $2400.
Once it falls back below this level, the price is likely to retest this week's low #ETH走势分析 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #加密市场观察 $ETH
If the daily close can firmly stay above $2100, it will open the door to $2400.
Once it falls back below this level, the price is likely to retest this week's low #ETH走势分析 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 #加密市场观察 $ETH
The giant whale is going long while retail investors are still enthusiastic. This kind of divergence usually indicates the proximity of a short-term top.
The unilateral upward trend has ended, and a wide-ranging oscillation mode has begun. In the coming month, we will see Bitcoin repeatedly wash out and build structure within the range. This is no longer the time to buy with closed eyes, but rather a test of patience and range trading ability #BTC #whale #加密市场观察
The unilateral upward trend has ended, and a wide-ranging oscillation mode has begun. In the coming month, we will see Bitcoin repeatedly wash out and build structure within the range. This is no longer the time to buy with closed eyes, but rather a test of patience and range trading ability #BTC #whale #加密市场观察
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