玄阳师兄

Don't rush to buy the dip, wait until Bitcoin drops below $50,000, then buy Bitcoin spot, this is the winning strategy in the crypto world. Don't underestimate the rise of Bitcoin spot, the rise of altcoins is not as good as Bitcoin. Contracts require a high level of investment skills, and generally, it's difficult to win. So buying Bitcoin spot at the bottom of a bear market is the winning strategy in the crypto world. $BTC $ETH $BNB

I always think about accurately predicting and grasping short-term trends, but the fluctuations and trends of the short term actually have no meaning or impact on me. Whether it turns around and continues downward from this point or turns around and continues downward around one hundred thousand dollars, there is no practical difference between the two. It's time to forget about candlestick charts and empty my mind. $BTC $ETH $BNB

Uni, tokens like AAVE cannot replace equity; institutional investors still prefer equity over tokens. This is because the decentralized nature of the crypto space and the power of the community are not yet strong enough, as tokens cannot constrain the project parties. Only when tokens are completely abandoned by the community will many project parties realize their mistakes and seriously regard token holders as real shareholders, and only then will they use project profits to reward shareholders. $BTC

As a Bitcoin believer, during that round of bull market in 2021, I would never have considered shorting Bitcoin. At that time, I wouldn't even dare to short Bitcoin, let alone think about it, because the rise of Bitcoin had no ceiling. Back then, anyone who dared to short Bitcoin would be buried by its rise. However, now in 2026, I boldly started to short Bitcoin, and I have no worries about it. This shows that the crypto circle has really changed. The development path of the crypto circle is long and full of obstacles. $BTC $ETH

In this bear market of 2026, I feel it is very likely to see Ethereum at $1000 again. It's hard to imagine Ethereum dropping back to $1000. But could you have imagined two years ago that Ethereum would drop below $2000? Ethereum's performance in this bull market has really been disappointing. If Ethereum is so disappointing, other altcoins have almost gone to zero. Right now, the Shanghai Composite Index and US stocks are still hovering at high levels and have not officially declined, so I feel that Ethereum has the potential to return to $1000 again. $ETH $BTC

Any change in price at any point can lead two different groups of people to firmly believe they are right, so at any point there are many people buying or selling, making the price continuous. Therefore, before the price becomes a reality in the next second, it is actually Schrödinger's cat, both dead and alive, with both states existing simultaneously. If you think in the opposite direction of what you believe, and think about it enough, you will feel that the direction opposite to yours is the real path of the future. The smaller the price level, the stronger the randomness. Thus, price changes are completely random. The only factor that affects price is the trend; the past that has already occurred influences the future, forming trends and inertia. Each price level has its own trend. Trends are constantly changing. Although the past affects the future, it seems that the future has already been determined, even down to specific points and times; it's just that we humans cannot discern the secrets within. $BTC $ETH

Today I thought for a long time again and found that the short-term trends in the future cannot be predicted at all, there are all kinds of possibilities. So in the next few weeks, if Ethereum does not continue to drop to my order price of 1570 USD, I must cancel this order at 1570 USD because the lowest bottom of Ethereum will definitely be below 1570 USD. If it hasn't dropped to 1570 USD within 5 weeks, once it drops, 1570 USD will definitely not be able to support the downward trend, so I must cancel the order at 1570 USD. Additionally, it is also very difficult to judge whether it can drop to 1000 USD. The only thing I am more certain about is that Bitcoin will drop below 50,000 USD. However, the short-term trends are really hard to judge. So the first bottoming out at that time can only be a rough estimate. The reason I want to place an order at the bottom is that I think after the first bottom, there will be a quick rebound, and at that time I can profit from a large wave. For example, if I can buy Ethereum at 1000 USD, after the first bottom reaches 1000 USD, there will be a quick rebound, leading to substantial profits, which can then accumulate the principal for the second bottoming. However, buying at the absolute bottom and not missing the opportunity is extremely difficult. But after the first rebound from the bottom, there will definitely be enough time to bottom out for the second time, but the bottoming out at that time will not have a quick rebound, so I can only hold the coins and wait for the next bull market. In summary, for short-term trends, even if I think hard, it is difficult to have full confidence. Short-term trends must consider various possibilities, so winning with short-term contracts is indeed very difficult. $ETH $BTC

Just now, my emotions got the better of me, and I almost couldn't resist the urge to place a bet. Fortunately, I thought about my original plan and managed to control my impulse. In fact, earning a little more really makes no difference; wanting to earn more only makes it easier to incur losses. I need to strictly follow the plan. Trading emotionally is not a wise choice.

Although I have some small position orders at the Ethereum price of $1570, my order at $1570 is for spot buying, not for contracts. Therefore, the discrepancy in my price compared to the market's lowest price may be quite large, and thus it cannot be used as a reference for contract bottom buying. Moreover, I am short-term bottom buying; after a slight rebound, I will sell and will not hold for long. The price of $1570 may indeed be a bit high. However, if I set it lower, I'm afraid I won't get filled. I will continue to hold my Bitcoin short position; I will only close my Bitcoin short position when Bitcoin drops to $50,000. $ETH $BTC

In the short term, I want to control myself and stop trading contracts. The less I trade, the greater the chance of winning. I have already placed an order for Ethereum at $1570 and an order for Ethereum at $1000, just waiting to win passively. The price of Ethereum at $1000 may never be reached.

The main reason for contract operation failure is basically due to a lack of rationality, emotional ordering, and impulsive ordering. Many times, in a moment of excitement, there is an impulse to place an order. Only by remaining unchanged in the face of change and waiting for the right opportunity can one win.

The short-term market has seen sharp rises and falls; it's safer and more prudent to wait until Bitcoin drops to $50,000 before buying the dip. After it falls to $50,000, I can only cautiously buy the dip with a portion of my position. My stuck Ethereum long contracts will also need to wait until Bitcoin drops to $50,000 to be unlocked. The rapid drop last night was too frightening. Unless Ethereum can rebound to $2,600, I won't unlock my stuck long position. Otherwise, I'll still wait for Bitcoin to drop to $50,000 before unlocking. Ethereum is unlikely to rebound to $2,600 in the short term. $ETH

For locking orders, it is equivalent to temporarily stopping your time after making an incorrect decision due to misreading the market, waiting for the market to shift to a new point where you can be confident again, and then unlocking the locked order. This way, you can use your intention to choose a market that you understand and are confident in, filtering out the markets you do not understand or are not confident in, so as not to be controlled by complex markets. This reduces floating losses and can even turn floating losses into profits. The timing for unlocking should be chosen at relatively high or low points, where the probability of success is very high.

The method of stop-loss is not as good as opening a new hedging position, because a stop-loss is equivalent to leaving the market. Opening a new hedging position does not mean leaving the market. Once you leave the market, losses truly become losses. Floating profit is not a win, and floating loss is not a loss. As long as you do not leave the market, there is no real loss. A hedging position modifies past incorrect decisions with new correct decisions. Incorrect decisions that have been validated by market trends need to be corrected in a timely manner. Holding on to positions is just repeating the same mistakes.

The principle of hedging: the disadvantage of holding a position or averaging down to increase margin is that it does not acknowledge past erroneous decisions, allowing wrong decisions to continue compounding errors, with the new future determined by a series of past decisions. The mistake and principle of holding a position lies in continually making wrong decisions, leading to an erroneous future. The principle of hedging is to stop making wrong decisions and to influence the future with new correct decisions, thereby creating a new correct future. Holding a position uses margin and past erroneous decisions to influence the future, while hedging uses new decisions to influence the future.

The principle of locking an order is that: a wrong decision made now, although incorrect, can be changed by a series of new correct decisions in the future.

The principle of locking an order is: if it is currently unclear whether there will be a short-term rise or fall, then leave the problem to a future moment when the trend can be clearly seen. Incorrect orders can be changed, and the new future lies in each new operation going forward.

The principle of locking a single order is: although I am not good enough now, through my efforts in the future, I will become better and better. Leave the current problems to be solved in the future. The present and the future are a dynamic process, a process with causal relations. The present can be changed, and the future is determined by every decision of consciousness.

The method of locking an order is really useful. In case multiple orders are opened incorrectly, to prevent losses from expanding, a new short order can be used to compensate. If used well, it can even increase profits. The principle of this method is similar to U.S. Treasuries, which use future methods to solve present problems. The key to the success of this method lies in whether it can successfully solve the problem better in the future. Leaving the current problem for the future is the principle of locking an order. This is also a method of parallel universes, leaving the problems of this universe to another parallel universe version of myself to solve. $ETH $BTC