Proekt_73
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Мы в Twitter и др - @Proekt_73. Анализ крипторынка, новости, сделки с объяснением. Не даем финансовых рекомендаций, DYOR! Тупые комменты, "вангования" - бан
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There is a transition to a sustainable uptrend on the 3-hour time frame for BTC. A long position has been opened on part of the deposit.
There is a transition to a sustainable uptrend on the 3-hour time frame for BTC. For the first time since January 29, by the way. Basic targets: 69,494$, 70,747$, 72,000$, potential breakdown level - 66,361$. The nearest liquidity zone according to our P73 Smart Liquidity Zones indicator on this time frame is 75,991-76,857$.
According to their trading strategy, they closed their small short at a loss. It was closed at -101.92%. However, in practice, that's -29.52$. The short risk at lows was taken into account.
According to their trading strategy, they closed their small short at a loss. It was closed at -101.92%. However, in practice, that's -29.52$. The short risk at lows was taken into account.
BTC and ETH have entered a stable uptrend on the 2-hour time frame. Along with them - another 14 assets from the TOP-200, according to the calculations of our P73 CryptoMarket Monitor.
Also in this hour, 18 assets have entered a stable uptrend on the hourly time frame and 8 - even on the 4-hour time frame. The algorithm provides a short-term forecast of average probability for the continuation of the upward movement in the market. With or without correction. Considering the Strong signal high on the hourly time frame for BTC and ETH - more likely with correction.
For #BTC, the unfulfilled basic targets are: 69,977$, 70,977$, the level of potential breakdown: 66,479$.
For #ETH, the basic targets are: 2,068$, 2,105$, the level of potential breakdown: 1,941$.
This is already - a more serious claim for continued growth. It will force consideration of closing the short position before transitioning to a stable uptrend on the 3-hour time frame, in case of a correction development we will take advantage of the opportunity. Especially if an uptrend is obtained on the 2.5-hour time frame. As a rule, it serves as an early spoiler of the uptrend on the 3-hour.
Also in this hour, 18 assets have entered a stable uptrend on the hourly time frame and 8 - even on the 4-hour time frame. The algorithm provides a short-term forecast of average probability for the continuation of the upward movement in the market. With or without correction. Considering the Strong signal high on the hourly time frame for BTC and ETH - more likely with correction.
For #BTC, the unfulfilled basic targets are: 69,977$, 70,977$, the level of potential breakdown: 66,479$.
For #ETH, the basic targets are: 2,068$, 2,105$, the level of potential breakdown: 1,941$.
This is already - a more serious claim for continued growth. It will force consideration of closing the short position before transitioning to a stable uptrend on the 3-hour time frame, in case of a correction development we will take advantage of the opportunity. Especially if an uptrend is obtained on the 2.5-hour time frame. As a rule, it serves as an early spoiler of the uptrend on the 3-hour.
The BTC rate has just broken through $69,000, and the ETH rate is $2,000.
The BTC rate has just broken through $69,000, and the ETH rate is $2,000. The key question now is - isn't this a short squeeze?
The answer to this question will be provided a little over 2 hours from now, when the 3-hour candle closes. With the current rise, both liquidity zones for #BTC have already been collected, which were mentioned in the morning review - $67,643-$68,434 and $68,750-$69,278. The current high is $69,309. The liquidity zone $68,750-$69,278 has not disappeared from the chart because our indicator P73 Smart Liquidity Zones only removes zones when they are firmly established above them. And there has been no firm establishment.
The answer to this question will be provided a little over 2 hours from now, when the 3-hour candle closes. With the current rise, both liquidity zones for #BTC have already been collected, which were mentioned in the morning review - $67,643-$68,434 and $68,750-$69,278. The current high is $69,309. The liquidity zone $68,750-$69,278 has not disappeared from the chart because our indicator P73 Smart Liquidity Zones only removes zones when they are firmly established above them. And there has been no firm establishment.
Crypto scam scheme on dozens of "review sites": how the funnel works through phishing
Crypto scam scheme on dozens of "review sites": how the funnel works through phishing on Bybit. Analysis from the SCAM LIST channel.
The authors of the channel summarize the investigation of a scheme that affects almost the entire crypto segment of Telegram. The scale is impressive: dozens of sites, hundreds of channels, thousands of victims.
The authors of the channel summarize the investigation of a scheme that affects almost the entire crypto segment of Telegram. The scale is impressive: dozens of sites, hundreds of channels, thousands of victims.
CryptoQuant does not see a "structural bottom" for BTC - on-chain has not yet reached capitulation
CryptoQuant does not see a "structural bottom" for BTC - on-chain has not yet reached capitulation.
Analysts from #CryptoQuant note that the market has already shown a significant loss fixation, but according to internal metrics, #BTC currently seems more like a transition into a bearish phase than a final bottom of the cycle.
Key fact about the losses:
Analysts from #CryptoQuant note that the market has already shown a significant loss fixation, but according to internal metrics, #BTC currently seems more like a transition into a bearish phase than a final bottom of the cycle.
Key fact about the losses:
Consumer inflation in the USA for January 2026 - better than forecasts
Consumer inflation in the USA for January 2026 - better than forecasts. Below, albeit slightly. This is positive for risky asset markets, for which the question "What will the US Federal Reserve do about "sticky" inflation?" remains extremely important.
To the numbers:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (January): 0.2% with a forecast of 0.3% and a previous figure of 0.3%.
To the numbers:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) (m/m) (January): 0.2% with a forecast of 0.3% and a previous figure of 0.3%.
BTC in this hour has transitioned into a stable uptrend on the hourly timeframe for the first time since February 9. With key targets of $67,433, $68,025, $68,617. And a level of potential breakdown at $65,952.
For the liquidity zones that are now prioritized on the hourly timeframe - these are $67,643-$68,434$ and $68,750-$69,278.
Yesterday, our expectation of a decline for #BTC at the price of $67,705$ materialized, literally in the same hour after the forecast, the price was sent down with a low of $65,118. BUT after that, we see a price recovery, again breaking through the trend resistance since January 30 and - the mentioned uptrend on the hourly.
Nevertheless, while trends mostly look down, we continue to hold our short from $66,835,90$ . We will continue as long as stable downtrends persist on our indicator on the 3- and 4-hour timeframes. Or at least on the 2.5-hour.
The only change - the additional order for adding to the short at the price of $70,513$ has been removed. As the transition to a stable uptrend on the 3-hour timeframe is almost certainly going to happen sooner if the growth continues.
For the liquidity zones that are now prioritized on the hourly timeframe - these are $67,643-$68,434$ and $68,750-$69,278.
Yesterday, our expectation of a decline for #BTC at the price of $67,705$ materialized, literally in the same hour after the forecast, the price was sent down with a low of $65,118. BUT after that, we see a price recovery, again breaking through the trend resistance since January 30 and - the mentioned uptrend on the hourly.
Nevertheless, while trends mostly look down, we continue to hold our short from $66,835,90$ . We will continue as long as stable downtrends persist on our indicator on the 3- and 4-hour timeframes. Or at least on the 2.5-hour.
The only change - the additional order for adding to the short at the price of $70,513$ has been removed. As the transition to a stable uptrend on the 3-hour timeframe is almost certainly going to happen sooner if the growth continues.
The dominance of BTC in February reminded us that its decline is not necessarily positive for altcoins
The dominance of BTC in February reminded us that its decline is not necessarily positive for altcoins.
First, the conclusion, and then - its justification. The conclusion is that we expect the dominance of #BTC to grow in the coming days. It is doubtful under the current conditions that this growth will coincide with a market rise. However, we will not dismiss such a possibility after the recent dump of the asset's price, especially considering how the dominance of stablecoins looks (it should decline after the vertical surge). But to put it simply - in the moment, we are talking about the prospects for the growth of Bitcoin's dominance, and we must admit - recently, this has not brought anything good for altcoins.
First, the conclusion, and then - its justification. The conclusion is that we expect the dominance of #BTC to grow in the coming days. It is doubtful under the current conditions that this growth will coincide with a market rise. However, we will not dismiss such a possibility after the recent dump of the asset's price, especially considering how the dominance of stablecoins looks (it should decline after the vertical surge). But to put it simply - in the moment, we are talking about the prospects for the growth of Bitcoin's dominance, and we must admit - recently, this has not brought anything good for altcoins.
In "Project "73" - 50 thousand subscribers on Binance Square. 🎉. We thank everyone involved 🤝
Maintaining a page on this platform is not always easy. Especially when we try to teach commentators not to "predict" and somehow justify their market expectations. If they decide to express them 😁.
But the decision to start writing in Square at that time - we are very pleased. Binance with the creation of this platform and its innovations has clearly set the trend for "social networks for crypto enthusiasts", which other exchanges are now trying to replicate. But it is on Square that the algorithms, search engine indexing - are top-notch. Quality content will always find its reader here 👏. Plus, there's motivation - rewards, tips from the exchange, drops. Traditionally - if you were thinking about starting to write, it's worth a try.
Maintaining a page on this platform is not always easy. Especially when we try to teach commentators not to "predict" and somehow justify their market expectations. If they decide to express them 😁.
But the decision to start writing in Square at that time - we are very pleased. Binance with the creation of this platform and its innovations has clearly set the trend for "social networks for crypto enthusiasts", which other exchanges are now trying to replicate. But it is on Square that the algorithms, search engine indexing - are top-notch. Quality content will always find its reader here 👏. Plus, there's motivation - rewards, tips from the exchange, drops. Traditionally - if you were thinking about starting to write, it's worth a try.
Glassnode: demand through spot ETFs for BTC and ETH is still "on pause."
Glassnode: demand through spot ETFs for BTC and ETH is still "on pause."
According to #Glassnode, the 30-day moving average of net flows in spot ETFs for #BTC and #ETH has been in negative territory for most of the last approximately 90 days. This means that on average, more money is flowing out than in - and there is no stable "new demand" visible yet.
According to #Glassnode, the 30-day moving average of net flows in spot ETFs for #BTC and #ETH has been in negative territory for most of the last approximately 90 days. This means that on average, more money is flowing out than in - and there is no stable "new demand" visible yet.
"Smart money" on Bitfinex continues to accumulate longs on BTC, although the pace has slowed since February 6
"Smart money" on Bitfinex continues to accumulate longs on BTC, although the pace has slowed since February 6. That is, from the bottom of the current correction. The stable uptrend of this metric on the daily timeframe is maintained.
Recall that on Trading View, the BTCUSDLONGS ticker allows you to conveniently track how players on #Bitfinex accumulate and unload longs. They accumulate them as the asset falls and unload as it rises. There is a pronounced inverse correlation with the price of #BTC, and this is typical behavior of "smart money". They unload longs into the crowd at the moment when the crowd is actively buying and pushing the price up. To realize their profits, they need stable demand. Therefore, the unloading of longs on Bitfinex was actually a positive for growth prospects. Meanwhile, accumulating longs there is negative.
Recall that on Trading View, the BTCUSDLONGS ticker allows you to conveniently track how players on #Bitfinex accumulate and unload longs. They accumulate them as the asset falls and unload as it rises. There is a pronounced inverse correlation with the price of #BTC, and this is typical behavior of "smart money". They unload longs into the crowd at the moment when the crowd is actively buying and pushing the price up. To realize their profits, they need stable demand. Therefore, the unloading of longs on Bitfinex was actually a positive for growth prospects. Meanwhile, accumulating longs there is negative.
BTC is trying to consolidate above the trend resistance since January 30, but we continue to wait for a decline
The BTC course is trying to consolidate above the trend resistance since January 30, but we continue to wait for a decline. Its potential is an open question. But for now, the price is in a stable downtrend according to our indicator on the 3- and 4-hour time frames (especially considering the recent break of the uptrend on the 4-hour chart) - for us, correction is a priority.
Dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC: bearish setups for the market signals on February 2, forecast
Dominance of stablecoins USDT+USDC: bearish setups for the market signals on February 2, extreme markers and forecast.
Let's start with the conclusions, and the details and explanations for those who are interested will be below. The conclusion is that there is currently a very good combination of potential high markers from different time frames based on extremes. If there is confirmation of a correction in the form of a transition to a downtrend at least on the 4-hour time frame, it will be better to forget about shorts for some time. Therefore, we will be cautious with our BTC short.
Let's start with the conclusions, and the details and explanations for those who are interested will be below. The conclusion is that there is currently a very good combination of potential high markers from different time frames based on extremes. If there is confirmation of a correction in the form of a transition to a downtrend at least on the 4-hour time frame, it will be better to forget about shorts for some time. Therefore, we will be cautious with our BTC short.
CryptoQuant: BTC in futures is still in the "red zone" - there are no signs of reversal on lower timeframes.
On the chart #CryptoQuant, the futures flow index for #BTC (Bitcoin Futures Flow Index, scale 0-100) has dropped to 23.2%. This is well below the threshold of 45, which they define as the "bearish mode". To enter "bullish mode", it needs to return above 55, and we are far from that right now.
The conclusion on the surface is that the BTC futures market is not showing a stable inflow/improvement in structure. In such conditions, price spikes can occur, but for now, they look like reactions within a weak background, rather than a mode change.
Overall, while the index remains around 20-30, the futures "basis" for growth is loose. Any negative news can easily push the price back.
Analyst's quote: "I check the futures charts on lower timeframes every other day, hoping for any signs of improvement, but so far I see nothing."
On the chart #CryptoQuant, the futures flow index for #BTC (Bitcoin Futures Flow Index, scale 0-100) has dropped to 23.2%. This is well below the threshold of 45, which they define as the "bearish mode". To enter "bullish mode", it needs to return above 55, and we are far from that right now.
The conclusion on the surface is that the BTC futures market is not showing a stable inflow/improvement in structure. In such conditions, price spikes can occur, but for now, they look like reactions within a weak background, rather than a mode change.
Overall, while the index remains around 20-30, the futures "basis" for growth is loose. Any negative news can easily push the price back.
Analyst's quote: "I check the futures charts on lower timeframes every other day, hoping for any signs of improvement, but so far I see nothing."
Now the reaction of BTC to negative data from the US labor market looks organic
Now the reaction of BTC to negative data from the US labor market looks organic. The rise occurred as a short squeeze, the targets of the uptrends on the lower timeframes have been met, and the uptrends have already been broken in such a rapid decline.
On the hourly timeframe, the price hit the liquidity zone of $68,750-$69,278 and immediately retraced, showing active selling.
On the hourly timeframe, the price hit the liquidity zone of $68,750-$69,278 and immediately retraced, showing active selling.
Securitize and Uniswap announced a partnership: the BlackRock BUIDL fund is being connected to the infrastructure
Securitize and Uniswap announced a partnership: the tokenized fund BlackRock BUIDL is being connected to the UniswapX infrastructure.
Separate detail: BlackRock (❗️) marked strategic investments in the #Uniswap ecosystem - meaning the story is not only about integration but also about interest in DeFi infrastructure as an asset.
Separate detail: BlackRock (❗️) marked strategic investments in the #Uniswap ecosystem - meaning the story is not only about integration but also about interest in DeFi infrastructure as an asset.
The US labor market for January turned out to be tougher than expected and it is not entirely clear why BTC reacted with growth
The US labor market for January turned out to be tougher than expected and it is not entirely clear why BTC reacted with growth to today's data. Along with the US Dollar Index DXY, by the way. With which it should have an inverse correlation.
Why DXY rose - this raises no questions. The bad news is that today's data deprives the markets of the prospect of "quick Fed support". That is, today's data, in theory, distances a softer regulatory policy - a strong labor market does not contribute to this. And it, judging by the data, is strong.
Why DXY rose - this raises no questions. The bad news is that today's data deprives the markets of the prospect of "quick Fed support". That is, today's data, in theory, distances a softer regulatory policy - a strong labor market does not contribute to this. And it, judging by the data, is strong.
Matrixport: The "engine" of the Bitcoin ETF has stalled because there is a lack of retail, and this is impacting inflows.
Matrixport: The "engine" of the Bitcoin ETF has stalled because there is a lack of retail, and this is impacting inflows.
In the fresh chart from #Matrixport, the link "funding rate for BTC vs trading volumes in South Korea" serves as an indicator of retail traders' activity.
The essence of the thesis is that retail demand has been noticeably weak for over a year. If we take Korean volumes as a "thermometer" for retail, then the "retail rate" for growth has not turned on (which, slightly deviating from the topic, leads us back to the "Psychological Market Cycle" by Jean-Paul Rodrigue, where a bull run comes after the institutional phase and in the crowd phase).
In the fresh chart from #Matrixport, the link "funding rate for BTC vs trading volumes in South Korea" serves as an indicator of retail traders' activity.
The essence of the thesis is that retail demand has been noticeably weak for over a year. If we take Korean volumes as a "thermometer" for retail, then the "retail rate" for growth has not turned on (which, slightly deviating from the topic, leads us back to the "Psychological Market Cycle" by Jean-Paul Rodrigue, where a bull run comes after the institutional phase and in the crowd phase).
Glassnode: the current BTC drawdown looks "moderate", and the market structure resembles the cycle of 2015-2017.
Analysts #Glassnode compared the current dynamics with historical bull cycles and concluded that the current pullbacks appear rather moderate when looking at typical drawdowns within bull phases (according to historical patterns).
The authors suggest that the October peak might have been the end of the bull phase - and then the current corrections fit into a "moderate" regime (similar to 2015-2017). Here, of course, many who lost deposits in the dump would argue.
Let’s recall, yesterday the analysts of this company provided an analysis, according to which at a price of about 69 000$ , the unrealized loss is estimated at approximately 16% of the market capitalization. And the current "market pain" in structure is comparable to the beginning of May 2022.
Analysts #Glassnode compared the current dynamics with historical bull cycles and concluded that the current pullbacks appear rather moderate when looking at typical drawdowns within bull phases (according to historical patterns).
The authors suggest that the October peak might have been the end of the bull phase - and then the current corrections fit into a "moderate" regime (similar to 2015-2017). Here, of course, many who lost deposits in the dump would argue.
Let’s recall, yesterday the analysts of this company provided an analysis, according to which at a price of about 69 000$ , the unrealized loss is estimated at approximately 16% of the market capitalization. And the current "market pain" in structure is comparable to the beginning of May 2022.
Important events for the cryptocurrency market on February 11 from the economic calendar.
Today is the second most important day of the week for macro data. If on Friday the key data will be on inflation in the USA, then today - data on the US labor market for January. The greatest volatility for risky asset markets may be provided by the Change in Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.
Schedule for the day:
❗️- 15:30 Kyiv time / 16:30 MSK / 18:30 Astana time - A large pool of data on the US labor market: Average Hourly Earnings (m/m, January), Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (January), Unemployment Rate (January), Labor Force Participation Rate (January), Revisions to seasonally adjusted employment data.
- 17:15 Kyiv time / 18:15 MSK / 20:15 Astana time - Speech by FOMC member Bowman.
- 21:00 Kyiv time / 22:00 MSK / 00:00 of the new day in Astana - Report on the execution of the federal budget of the USA (January). Market fluctuations are possible only with significant changes in indicators.
Today is the second most important day of the week for macro data. If on Friday the key data will be on inflation in the USA, then today - data on the US labor market for January. The greatest volatility for risky asset markets may be provided by the Change in Non-Farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.
Schedule for the day:
❗️- 15:30 Kyiv time / 16:30 MSK / 18:30 Astana time - A large pool of data on the US labor market: Average Hourly Earnings (m/m, January), Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (January), Unemployment Rate (January), Labor Force Participation Rate (January), Revisions to seasonally adjusted employment data.
- 17:15 Kyiv time / 18:15 MSK / 20:15 Astana time - Speech by FOMC member Bowman.
- 21:00 Kyiv time / 22:00 MSK / 00:00 of the new day in Astana - Report on the execution of the federal budget of the USA (January). Market fluctuations are possible only with significant changes in indicators.
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