木子韩

The previous blockchains (like Bitcoin and Ethereum) were 'monolithic chains', having to do everything themselves: consensus, settlement, data storage, making them slow and expensive.

The current trend is modularization. Just like assembling a computer, you buy the best CPU, graphics card, and hard drive individually, and then piece them together.

Key takeaway: Celestia (TIA).
It is the leader focused on 'data availability layer (DA)'. In simple terms, in the future, whoever wants to launch a new chain does not need to build nodes themselves; they can directly rent the underlying infrastructure of Celestia, which is both cheap and fast. This not only reduces costs and increases efficiency but also revolutionizes the threshold for launching chains.

Why should you pay attention to TIA?
Not only because of the coin price, but also because it is a golden shovel. Many new modular projects using Celestia technology (like Dymension, AltLayer, etc.) will airdrop rewards to TIA stakers to thank them for their support. Staking TIA means laying the groundwork for the future of the entire modular track.

The most boring debate in the crypto world is whether "Solana can kill Ethereum". These are two completely different species, and neither can die.

Ethereum (ETH): It is the settlement layer for Wall Street and institutions. If you want to deposit 10 million dollars, for safety, you must put it on Ethereum or its L2. This is the stronghold of legitimate forces, the base camp of DeFi.

Solana (SOL): It is the playground for retail investors and Degens (gamblers). Fast speed, almost zero fees, naturally suited for running MEME coins, high-frequency trading, and blockchain games. If you want to gamble a few hundred U for hundreds of thousands, there are the most opportunities here.

How to operate?
It's simple, keep assets in ETH and speculate in SOL. Don't put your lifesaving money on a high-speed chain that might occasionally crash, and don't use the money meant for buying coffee to pay dozens of dollars in Gas fees on Ethereum.

Ethereum now has countless Layer 2 (second-layer networks) like ARB, OP, Base, Starknet, zkSync... Newbies can be completely confused when they first enter.

Key selection logic: Don't be fooled by how impressive the technology sounds; focus solely on TVL (Total Value Locked) and ecosystem activity.

Arbitrum (ARB): Currently the leader, with the most DeFi applications, and the place most similar to the Ethereum mainnet, suitable for playing derivative protocols like GMX.

Optimism (OP): Introduced the concept of a 'super chain,' gathering a bunch of smaller players (including Base). It is not just a public chain but more like a technology service provider, with a huge potential in the long run.

Base: Coinbase's favored child, although it hasn't issued a token, it's filled with low-quality and high-quality projects, creating a strong wealth effect, suitable for players who enjoy high-risk projects.

ZK Series: While the technology is the ultimate destination, the current experience is average, and the ecosystem is still quite barren. Don't rush to move large funds over; just snag an airdrop for safety.

In the past, everyone thought Bitcoin was just "digital gold", meant to be hoarded and untouched. But with the emergence of the Ordinals protocol and Runes, this old chain of Bitcoin has come to life.

Many people criticize this as throwing garbage onto the Bitcoin blockchain and clogging the network. However, I must say: existence is reasonable, and miner support is the hard truth. This wave of ecological explosion has allowed miners to earn a lot, and they will maintain this ecosystem for the transaction fees.

Core:
Inscriptions: Assets like ORDI and SATS already have strong community consensus; when they drop, it's an opportunity, so avoid those "antiques" that no one is talking about.

Runes: This is a technical upgrade, more efficient than inscriptions, taking up less space. Focus on those rune projects that truly have application scenarios or are led by large Western communities.

Don't be the last one to take the baton: The liquidity of the Bitcoin ecosystem is not as good as Ethereum's, and large fluctuations are the norm. When you see Gas fees soar to hundreds of dollars, don't FOMO in; that's often when it's a short-term peak.

In the cryptocurrency world, everyone will lose money, and experts are no exception. But the difference between ordinary people and experts is: ordinary people blame the market and the operators when they lose money, then continue to make the same mistakes; experts will painfully review their trades after a loss.

Three review questions:
Whenever you incur a significant loss, force yourself to calm down and answer these three questions:
1. Why did I buy at that time? Was it based on logical analysis, or was it due to emotional excitement after hearing someone else's recommendation?

2. What was my trading plan? Did I set a stop-loss? Why was the stop-loss triggered but not executed?

3. What weaknesses did this loss expose in me? Is it greed? Is it fear? Or is it a lack of understanding?
If you don’t review, the tuition you paid will be wasted. Turn every loss into a stepping stone for your advancement; this is the only path to stable profits.

New users are often confused by Gas fees. Why does it sometimes cost dozens of dollars to transfer funds, while other times it only costs a few cents? It depends on which chain you are using and whether that chain is congested.

Tips:
1. Ethereum mainnet: noble chain, not to be touched lightly by non-whales. A single interaction can easily cost over ten dollars, which is unaffordable for retail investors. If you want to use the Ethereum ecosystem, try to go to Layer 2 (ARB, OP, BASE); the experience is similar, but the fees are dozens of times lower.
2. Solana / BSC: civilian chains, fast speed, low fees, particularly suitable for high-frequency trading and speculating on meme coins.
3. Money-saving tips: When performing non-urgent operations (such as authorization or staking), you can avoid peak network times (usually during U.S. working hours), or manually lower the Gas Price slightly in your wallet (not too low, or it will get stuck), which can save a lot of money.

The current NFT market can be described as a battlefield strewn with corpses. The PFP (Profile Picture) NFTs that skyrocketed in the last bull market now have most of their liquidity dried up, and prices have plummeted. Why? Because it was just an identity bubble, and once it bursts, it's gone.

The future of NFTs is not in profile pictures, but elsewhere.
Generative Art: Art pieces generated by algorithms, like Art Blocks, possess true artistic scarcity and aesthetic value, and are still sought after by top collectors.

Rights-based NFTs: NFTs that are tied to real-world rights, such as a lifetime membership card to a top club, or key items in a game. They are supported by actual utility value.

Stop dreaming about getting rich overnight by bottom fishing those outdated images; focus on NFT sub-sectors that have real value support.

Why do many people fail to make money in a bull market? Because their position management is a complete mess. Either they go all in on a low-quality asset that goes to zero, or they hold a bunch of worthless altcoins that underperform the market.

Key takeaway: A golden position ratio that can withstand both bull and bear markets.
70% base position: allocate to BTC and ETH. These are the anchors of this industry; as long as the industry exists, they will be there. They determine the lower limit of your assets.

20% allocation: for leading assets in mainstream sectors. For example, SOL in public chains, UNI in DeFi, and OP/ARB in Layer 2. This is to seek returns that outperform the market.

10% lottery position: to invest in low-quality assets and play high-leverage contracts. Losing it all doesn't hurt, and winning can bring surprises of dozens of times.

This ratio allows you to avoid missing out in a bull market and survive in a bear market. Strictly adhering to this discipline is more important than any technical analysis.

Think you've achieved financial freedom by making 100 times your initial investment in crypto? Think again! Due to well-known reasons, the current withdrawal environment is extremely unsafe. You can easily receive funds involved in illicit activities, leading to your bank card being frozen.

Preventing Card Freezing:
**Dedicated Card:** Open a bank account you don't usually use specifically for withdrawals. Never use your salary card or mortgage payment card.

**Reliable Merchants:** When withdrawing funds through C2C exchanges, don't be tempted by a few cents higher exchange rates. Prioritize "Shield" or certified merchants with long registration histories, high transaction volumes, and positive feedback rates.

**Size in Small Amounts:** Avoid withdrawing large sums of tens or hundreds of thousands at once, as this can easily trigger bank risk controls.

**Ultimate Solution:** If possible, open an overseas bank account (such as a Hong Kong account) to achieve fiat currency segregation. This is the safest option.

In the cryptocurrency world, if you don't want to be a victim, you need to have your own judgment. Asking others every day "can I buy this?" means your fate is in the hands of others.

The simplest steps to establish an investment research system.
The first step is the information source: turn off those noise groups that only shout signals. Select dozens of high-quality Twitter influencers (both Chinese and English), and follow a few reliable research institutions (like Messari, The Block).

Learn to read project whitepapers: don't be afraid of English, use translation software and force yourself to read. Understand what problem the project is solving? What is the token economic model? What is the team background?
Get your hands dirty with data: use Etherscan and Dune as mentioned earlier.

Review and summarize: write down reasons for promising projects, and verify them after some time. If you're wrong, find the reason; if you're right, summarize your experience. Slowly, you'll develop your market sense.

Warren Buffett once said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." Everyone can recite this, but when the time comes, do you dare to act?

Key Indicators:
1. Fear & Greed Index: This is the most intuitive emotional indicator. When the index drops below 10 (extreme fear), the market is in despair, and no one is talking in the groups. This is often a stage bottom and a good time to gradually buy the dip.
2. Perpetual Contract Rate: When the overall rate turns deeply negative (everyone is shorting and needs to pay longs), it indicates that bearish sentiment has reached its peak, making it easy for a "short squeeze" rebound to occur. Conversely, when the rate is extremely high, caution is needed for a pullback.
3. Social Media Heat: When even the vegetable lady downstairs is asking if you can buy Bitcoin, decisively liquidate your position and leave, don't hesitate.

The biggest mistake new people in the crypto world make is to blindly trust so-called "signal teachers" or join paid groups. Wake up!\n\nHere's the hard truth: \nThink of the simplest logic: if he really could make stable profits, wouldn't he just quietly make a fortune himself? Why would he go through the trouble of helping you, a stranger, make money, only to charge you that little group fee?\nTheir tricks usually are: \n1. Photoshop expert: Most of the profit screenshots you see are from demo accounts or directly edited.\n\n2. Two-way blockade: In two groups, they shout opposite trades—one group shouts long, and the other shouts short. There will always be one group that is right, and then they brag about that one.\n\n3. Eating customer losses: The worst is collaborating with shady exchanges, where the money you lose is split between him and the exchange.\n\nRemember, true trading experts are all lonely. If you want to make money, you have to rely on yourself to build a trading system; don't think about looking for shortcuts.

ZK (Zero-Knowledge Proof) is recognized as the holy grail of blockchain technology, capable of solving both privacy and scalability issues. Projects like ZK-Sync and Starknet have raised astonishing amounts of funding. But why do their token prices always perform disappointingly?

Key Insights:
1. The technology is too hardcore, and the narrative is not attractive: Compared to MEME or AI, privacy technology is too difficult to understand, making it hard to tell a compelling story of getting rich quickly to new investors.

2. The Damocles sword of regulation: Privacy is a double-edged sword; it is at the core of decentralization and also a thorn in the side of regulatory bodies (for example, Tornado Cash was sanctioned). This leads to large funds being wary of excessive involvement.

3. Long-term value vs short-term speculation: ZK is infrastructure, and its value takes a long time to manifest. If you are a short-term trader, this field may not be suitable for you; if you are a long-term believer, now is actually a good time to accumulate positions.

Every time there is a World Cup or European Championship year, fan tokens (like the team tokens issued by CHZ) will be hyped up. Many people jump in because they are true fans and want to support their teams.

The hard truth: Don't be foolish, fan tokens are basically unrelated to team performance.
If a team wins the championship, the token price may actually plummet; this is called "profit-taking." These tokens are purely a gamble based on news and sentiment.
How to play?

1. Get in early: You need to enter the market two to three months before the tournament starts; when everyone begins discussing it, that's often when the big players start selling.
2. Keep an eye on the leaders: CHZ is the engine of the entire sector; if it doesn't rise, other smaller tokens will also struggle to move. Additionally, strong tokens like SANTOS and LAZIO that are listed on Binance are worth paying attention to.
3. Don't fall in love: Once the match ends, the hype dissipates faster than anyone else; you must take profits in batches during the peak of the tournament.

Do you think that if your private key is not leaked, you are safe?
What a naive thought! Currently, 90% of theft cases are not due to losing the private key, but because of random authorization (Approve).

Scammers create a phishing website that looks exactly like the official site (for example, a fake airdrop claiming page), popping up a box for you to sign. You think it's for login confirmation, but in fact, it's authorizing them to transfer all your USDT away.

Practical life-saving guide:
1. Install security plugins: It is highly recommended to install browser plugins like Scam Sniffer or Wallet Guard. They can help you identify malicious contracts before you confirm, issuing a red alert.
2. Regularly clean up authorizations: Make it a habit to check which contracts your wallet has authorized every week using Revoke.cash, and cancel any that are unnecessary or seem unfamiliar.
3. Wallet isolation: Never click on links with wallets holding large amounts of funds; for regular interactions, use another wallet that only holds a small amount of Gas.

Soul-searching question: Have your cryptocurrency assets exceeded 5000 U? Or is this money very important to you? If so, buy a hardware wallet immediately! Don't believe the nonsense that exchanges won't go bankrupt, the body of FTX hasn't even cooled down yet. Not your keys, not your coins.

Recommended essentials:
There are only two mainstream options on the market, Ledger and Trezor.
Ledger (like Nano X) has a good experience, supports many cryptocurrencies, and is suitable for those who need to frequently connect to their mobile devices.

Trezor (like Model T) has a high degree of open source, is a bit more for geeks, and has a strong reputation in the security circle.
Both options are fine, but the core rule is: definitely buy from the official website! Never buy second-hand or so-called "brand new and unopened" items on platforms like Taobao or Xianyu; if a backdoor is implanted, you are just giving hackers a year-end bonus. Remember to write down your recovery phrase with a pen on paper, don't take a screenshot and store it on your phone!

When trading on DEXs like Uniswap, don't just hit Swap; there's a lot more to it. Newbies are most likely to fall victim to 'sandwich bots' (MEV Bots).

In simple terms, as soon as you submit a buy order, the bot detects it and immediately raises the price to buy in front of you. After you finish your purchase, it sells at a higher price to you, resulting in a loss of your coins in the process.

Practical defense tactics:
1. Set slippage reasonably: For mainstream coins, keep slippage low (below 0.5%); for lesser-known tokens, you have to set higher slippage. Don't set slippage too high just for quick transactions, as that only gives money to the bots.
2. Anti-sandwich tools: Use some RPC nodes with anti-MEV features or aggregators like CowSwap and 1inch, which have mechanisms to protect your trades from being sandwiched.
3. Clean up after trading: After trading lesser-known tokens, remember to revoke token approvals to prevent contracts from having backdoors.

DEXs are dark forests; make sure to take the right weapons before entering.

The biggest lie in the crypto world is the "hundred times coin" from KOLs and the "million users" from project parties. If you don't want to be cut like chives, you have to learn to look at the data yourself. On-chain data does not lie.
Useful tools and insights:

Etherscan is a basic skill used to check large transfer records to see if the project party is secretly offloading.

Dune Analytics is a magic tool, with dashboards created by various experts. What should you focus on? Don't just look at the number of addresses, as that can be manipulated; you need to check if the TVL (Total Value Locked) is genuinely increasing and the interaction frequency of daily active users.

Nansen can track the movements of "smart money" to see what those historically successful whale addresses are buying recently.

If a project's coin price skyrockets but the on-chain data is dead silent, then a crash is not far away. Learn to read the data, and you will have the ability to see through.

TON's momentum has been incredible lately, and its ace in the hole is just one: it is backed by Telegram, which has 900 million monthly active users, a super traffic pool. Other public chains are struggling to spend money to attract new users, while TON is directly camping among the users.

Key point: Pay special attention to the opportunities in Telegram Mini Apps.
Imagine being able to play a mini-game directly in the chat interface, earn some tokens, and make seamless transfers with the built-in wallet. How smooth is that experience? There will definitely be a few nationally recognized Web3 applications emerging from this.

Especially those mini-games that combine social viral gameplay or very practical tool applications have strong explosive potential. Don't be biased; where the traffic is, the money is, and TON is likely to be the biggest entry point for Web2 users to enter Web3.

Don't think that the crypto world is a paradise; the current BTC trend is highly correlated with the US stock market's Nasdaq. If you want to make long-term investments, you must pay attention to the macroeconomic indicators.

Key Point: Keep an eye on the Federal Reserve. The core of the current market speculation is the "interest rate cut expectations."
When will the rate cut happen? It depends on two key data points: inflation data (CPI, PCE) and employment data (non-farm).

There is an counterintuitive logic here: sometimes when economic data is poor (such as rising unemployment rates), it can be good news for the crypto world. This is because it means the economy is struggling, and the Federal Reserve has to cut interest rates and inject liquidity to save the economy. When the liquidity comes, asset prices can rise.

So remember to set your alarm for the nights when those key data points are released at the beginning of each month; the market volatility will definitely be significant. If you don't understand complex economics, just observe the market's immediate reaction to the data, and don't go against the major trend.