MRkorai

(My view based on math, not emotions)
Before trying to predict the future, I prefer to look at what has already happened.
BTC topped around 126K and dropped to 60K.
That’s a 52% correction.
ETH topped near 4950 and dropped to 1750.
That’s a 65% correction.
This tells us something important:
ETH didn’t just follow BTC — it overreacted.
Roughly 1.2x to 1.3x more volatile, mainly due to leverage and panic selling.
That first wave of damage has already happened.
Now the real question isn’t whether ETH can go lower.
It’s from what level, and under what conditions.
If BTC Drops from 60K to 48K
That would be another 20% downside.
ETH’s reaction will depend entirely on where it is trading when that happens.
Scenario 1: ETH Bounces to 2300–2400 First
This is the most realistic setup in my view.
If BTC drops 20%, ETH could drop around 24–26% (based on historical volatility).
2400 → around 1800
2300 → around 1700
That wouldn’t be panic.
That would be controlled fear.
Scenario 2: ETH Is Already Weak Around 1900–2000
Now the situation changes.
There’s less buffer.
Liquidations would start earlier.
In that case, 1500–1400 becomes very possible.
Quick wicks lower could happen — not because ETH is broken,
but because leverage would get flushed again.
Scenario 3: Full Market Panic (Low Probability)
This would require:
• BTC losing 48K quickly
• A macro or liquidity shock
Only then do we talk about 1100–1200 wicks.
Short-lived. Emotional. Extreme.
Maximum pain. Minimum time.
What Most People Miss
ETH already had its first panic leg at 1750.
Second legs are usually slower,
less violent,
and more selective.
That’s why survival matters more than prediction.
My Honest Take
ETH below 1500 is possible only if BTC continues falling.
ETH below 1300 requires real panic — not social media fear.
Overleveraged traders will struggle in this range.
Patient spot holders usually survive.
Markets don’t reward confidence.
They reward risk management.

I’ve talked a lot about the illusions in crypto.
I’ve laughed at “altcoin season” promises.
I’ve even said before that if you want badly enough, you can make any chart look bullish — flip it upside down and voilà 🙂
It’s Sunday. I’m scrolling mindlessly, and once again I see the same recycled lines:
Altcoin season is coming
These prices will never come again
BTC$BTC has bottomed
Again.
And again.
And again.
Funny thing?
That “bottom” was 100k once.
Then 90k.
Then 75k.
Then 60k.
Everyone was sure.
Everyone was wrong.
I had a 75k target. Price went to 60k.
Someone else had 60k. Maybe it goes to 50k. Or 30k. Or 250k by year end.
The truth?
Nobody knows.
No drama.
No prophecy.
Just reality.
A Simple, Honest Advice
If I had to give one clear piece of advice, it would be this:
Stop dreaming. Start trading.
Learn technical analysis.
Use proper money management.
Not because TA predicts the future like magic —
but because it gives structure.
Not because money management is exciting —
but because it keeps you alive.
A Story From Last Night (Funny… and painful)
Last night I was out with a friend in Old Town, Bucharest.
We were celebrating his sports betting ticket.
Odds? 486x.
He does this every weekend.
Small bets. Most lose.
Once in a while — one hits big.
Here’s the irony.
The same guy bought a crypto coin at the top in 2021.
Since then, he’s been DCA-ing into it non-stop.
Yesterday he told me he’s 60k down.
He’s not rich.
Not even close.
The irony writes itself.
“Investing” vs Reality
He believes he’s an investor.
But he doesn’t know how to draw a trendline.
The first time he ever saw his coin’s chart properly
was when I analyzed it for him — two years after he bought it.
He bought because of an influencer.
Now he keeps DCA-ing because of hope.
That’s not investing.
That’s anchoring to a mistake.
Psychologically, it’s not very different from betting —
just slower, and wrapped in nicer words.
The Lesson Everyone Misses
With betting, he knows it’s gambling.
With crypto, he believes it’s investing.
But labels don’t matter.
Behavior does.
If your decisions are based on:
influencers
hope
blind DCA
refusing to reassess
Then the line between gambling and trading is paper-thin.
The Market Owes You Nothing
Markets don’t care where you bought.
They don’t reward loyalty.
They don’t promise comebacks.
Some bad assets stay bad forever.
Some narratives never return.
Some “cycle recoveries” are just stories people tell to cope.
Harsh?
Maybe.
But expensive lessons are usually the honest ones.
The Real Choice
Every trader reaches a moment where they must choose:
Dreams
or
Decisions
Dreams feel better.
Decisions work better.
Final Thought
You don’t need to catch bottoms.
You don’t need 100x stories.
You don’t need altcoin season to save you.
You need:
structure
risk control
honesty with yourself
Stop dreaming.
Start trading.
Have a nice Sunday.
#Write2Earn #BinanceSquare #TradingMindset
$BTC $ASTER $GIGGLE

Ethereum has shown a short-term recovery after a recent sharp sell-off, but the market is still fragile and heavily reliant on levels. The price aggressively dipped to the 1,740 area, where strong buying interest entered and pushed ETH back above 2,000. This reaction clearly indicates that demand is present at lower levels, which has halted immediate downside continuation.
After the bounce, ETH tested the 2,120–2,125 zone but couldn't sustain there and pulled back again. The price action now showing around 2,060–2,080 indicates not weakness but rather consolidation. The market is digesting the recent move and is not reversing. Buyers are still defending, but the momentum has slowed a bit compared to the initial bounce.

The major sell-off now looks complete.
From here, Bitcoin may enter a long consolidation phase, possibly lasting 250+ days. In a worst-case scenario, we could see one last liquidity sweep into the $45K–$55K range.
Here’s why I see it this way:
After Trump’s election win, BTC rallied aggressively without a proper retest. At the same time, strong ETF inflows pushed prices up very quickly. Recently, however, ETFs have started selling BTC$BTC — which often signals preparation to re-accumulate at lower levels.$BTC
This current zone looks more like re-accumulation, not distribution.
I’m buying again in this area and will continue to DCA on every major dip. Once this consolidation phase is complete, we may finally see a real, organic altseason — not the short-lived, fake pumps we’ve been seeing.