DannyVN

As of February 2026:
– The U.S. budget deficit was approximately $95 billion, down 26% compared to the same period.
– U.S. customs duties in the first four months of fiscal year 2026 (starting from October 2025) reached $124 billion, an increase of over 300%.
The short-term picture seems brighter.
But the big question is: how sustainable is it?
1. HOW DO U.S. CUSTOMS DUTIES HELP THE BUDGET BREATHE EASIER?
Specifically for January 2026:
– U.S. customs duties reached $30 billion
The entire previous fiscal year 2025:

I have played CRYPTO long enough to understand the difference between hype and momentum.
Hype is loud and then disappears. Momentum is quiet, and then one day you look up, and the whole landscape has changed.
Solana is momentum. 🚀
Real revenue. Real users. Real money.
In 2025, applications on <c-143> generated 2.39 billion USD in revenue. That is real money paid by real users to use real products.
Seven separate applications each exceeding 100 million USD: Pump.fun, Axiom, Meteora, Raydium, Jupiter, Photon, and Bullx. The 'long tail' behind them contributed an additional 500 million USD cumulatively.

Many people believe that the market will reverse in a V-shape after a severe sell-off (that's because we hope so).
But in reality, that almost NEVER happens.
They only occur during rapid corrections in a strong upward trend (also known as a bull market).
But it takes time for the bottom to form. It takes time for the downtrend to end.

One of the very few reputable on-chain indicators that indicates the optimal top-bottom catching zone in the long term and has proven effective over 4 cycles
1️⃣ What is MVRV Z-Score?
MVRV Z-Score measures: The degree of deviation between the market price of Bitcoin (Market Value) and the on-chain cost price of all holders (Realized Value)
It helps to identify:
- When is the market too hot (overvalued)
- When is Bitcoin undervalued?

The story of 'Who is Satoshi' has become quite familiar. Every few years, a new name is dragged out, the media dissects it, the community debates for a while, and then everything settles down again. Over 15 years have passed, and there is still no evidence strong enough to settle the matter — and to be honest, the likelihood is that there will never be.
A large part is because Bitcoin was not designed from the beginning for you to have to trust a specific person. One could even say Satoshi intentionally designed it this way. If a system still operates well when its creator completely disappears, then that is what is truly valuable.

He is not thinking about "winning the race for general artificial intelligence," but rather about the kind of systems we will be bound to for the next 30-50 years.
Privacy, verification, agent-based economy, governance, local models… all aimed at the same goal: to protect human autonomy in a world where intelligence becomes cheap and abundant.

It has been 5 months since Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126k.
And it has been 5 days since Bitcoin split from that price.
So what the hell is happening?

Bitcoin fell 50% in just 5 months
Let’s go through everything, from top to bottom.
We will start from "above" first, and then we will go down "below", the part above here is:
MACROECONOMICS
First, we must look at macroeconomics, it is what determines the direction of all asset markets, Bitcoin or more broadly is no exception.

Bitcoin traded around ~60k last week.

In the declining yield model, it is not just noise.
That is the market beginning to exert pressure on the weakest point in the entire 4-year cycle framework and the logarithmic growth model.
When the increase from one peak to another is compressed to this level, Bitcoin cannot continue the 'old Bitcoin' type declines without breaking the model that has made the cycle attractive.

Since October 10, 2025, when Mr. Trump announced a 100% tariff on all imports from China, the global financial market began to shake violently. Crypto was not excluded from this. In just a few months, the total market capitalization has evaporated by nearly 2 trillion USD.
$BTC currently down about 45% compared to ATH. If you only look at the absolute USD number, this loss is even greater than the FTX crash in 2022.

Looking at the Binance image warning 'Avoiding Public WiFi' that I see... is very true to the reality in Vietnam right now.
Going for coffee, entering co-working spaces, sitting at the airport, even street food restaurants also have free WiFi. And almost 8 out of 10 traders I meet, when they open their laptops, they automatically connect. No need to think. If they see a strong network, they connect.
It sounds convenient. But in reality, it is extremely risky.
Public WiFi is essentially an open network. Anyone on the same network can 'eavesdrop' on your traffic. The image mentions a type of attack called man-in-the-middle. Simply put, there's someone standing between you and the internet, and they can see everything you send and receive.

The past few days have been particularly difficult for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general.
On February 6, BTC dropped below $60,000, a level not reached since October 2024.
At the same time, the market recorded a strong correction, with a drop of more than 50% from the previous all-time high. This sudden return to lower price levels has raised concerns among investors.

I just happened to understand the implications of Elon Musk and Naval about AI and ENERGY (the author of the book: for prosperity and happiness, self-made millionaires, many good articles for the tech generation)
warning this article is long but I am very passionate about this topic, reading time 8 minutes.
Before we get into the main picture of the article, let's analyze a practical example.
Going back hundreds of years or 20 to 30 years ago, we were HUMANS working hard, accumulating excess money to eat (live, survive), then there are 2 next directions (if not drawn into wasteful spending),

Recently, I've seen a rather interesting — and somewhat 'touchy' — debate between Vitalik Buterin and crypto analyst c-node about the true nature of DeFi.
Not TVL
Not APY

But: What is DeFi really for?
Both share a common concern: DeFi is straying from its original path.
1. Current DeFi: financial revolution or banking 2.0?
If you look around the market now, most of what is called 'DeFi' is actually just about one thing: optimizing yield.

When $BTC dropped sharply to around $60K, I observed some points like:
Stablecoin cash flow shows unusual signs
1. The price of $USDT P2P skyrocketed to 27k1 and then adjusted downwards
From here we lead to 2 possible conclusions:
- Retails are depositing $USDT to preserve Margin, Future, or Lending & Borrowing positions.
- Retails are using $USDT to catch the bottom of BTC and the Altcoin market.
What does market behavior indicate?