老李迫击炮

【February 11 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. U.S. stock crypto shares closed down across the board, Gemini (#GEMI ) fell by 7.72%, Ethereum treasury stocks collectively suffered setbacks;
2. Grayscale report: Bitcoin's 'digital gold' narrative faces challenges, price behavior is increasingly resembling high-risk growth assets;
3. On-chain data: Bitcoin's rebound fails to conceal market panic, the probability of continued rebound may increase;
4. Goldman Sachs disclosed $2.36 billion in crypto asset exposure, including #BTC , #ETH , XRP, and #sol .

The latest report released by Grayscale indicates that Bitcoin's hedging properties as 'digital gold' have recently been challenged, with its price behavior closer to that of high-risk assets such as tech stocks. The report analyzes that this high correlation with the software sector partly stems from market concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence and the capital flows brought by Bitcoin ETFs, indicating that it is becoming more deeply integrated into the traditional financial system. Bitcoin rebounded from $60,000 to $69,000; although spot trading volume has increased, it remains low, showing reduced selling pressure and cautious buyers, with the market exhibiting characteristics of capital exchange. Derivative positions are leaning towards defense, with ETF trading volume surging to $45.5 billion but accompanied by capital outflows, indicating low risk appetite. On-chain data reflects a warming of fundamental activities, but net capital inflow is negative and unrealized losses dominate the supply. The key to the continued market recovery lies in the repair of spot demand to stabilize prices above recent lows.
This shift has far-reaching implications for the crypto market, especially for BTC. In the short term, Bitcoin's price may be more susceptible to stock market fluctuations and macro sentiment, exacerbating market volatility. However, in the long run, this reflects its ongoing evolution as an emerging asset class, with increased institutional participation laying a broader acceptance foundation. Although it will take time to completely replace gold's monetary status, in the wave of global economic digitization, Bitcoin's narrative as a store of value is still gradually developing.

【February 10th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Reuters warns: #TRUMP economic statements are chaotic, which may drag down the Republican midterm elections;
2. #FED considers opening the payment system to non-bank institutions, causing industry disputes;
3. Glassnode: #BTC selling pressure temporarily eases, market recovery requires renewed spot demand;
4. US tech funds recorded an inflow of $6 billion last week, the largest inflow in nearly two months.

Media analysis points out that Trump's statements on inflation and cost of living are unfocused, laying a hidden danger for the Republican midterm elections. Multiple Republican strategists warn that Trump may repeat Biden's mistakes, damaging party credibility in the economic areas most concerning to voters. Data shows that in the five economic speeches since December last year, Trump claimed inflation was under control nearly 20 times and emphasized price declines 30 times, but reality is significantly diverging from public perception—over the past year, the inflation rate remains at 3%, with ground beef and coffee prices rising by 18% and 29%, respectively. Statistics indicate that nearly half of Trump's approximately 5-hour speech deviated from economic themes, shifting to immigration and political attacks. There are concerns within the Republican Party that his "interspersed" style is diluting core economic messages. Polls show only 35% of Americans approve of Trump's economic management. Former officials point out that in an election year, empathy must be communicated to voters; ignoring this point is precisely the lesson of Biden's defeat.
The Glassnode report shows Bitcoin rebounded from $60,000 to $70,000, with spot trading volume expanding but still at low levels, indicating reduced selling pressure while buyers remain cautious, and the market shows characteristics of chip exchange. Derivative positions lean towards defense, with ETF trading volume surging to $45.5 billion but accompanied by capital outflows, reflecting low risk appetite. On-chain data reflects a warming of fundamental activity, but net capital inflows are negative and unrealized losses dominate supply. The key to continuous market recovery lies in restoring spot demand to stabilize prices above recent lows.

【February 9 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1. The US Dollar Index has fallen to its lowest level since February 4, with spot gold and silver continuing last week's upward trend;
2. The Financial Times published an article criticizing cryptocurrencies: #BTC is still severely overvalued, and a crash is imminent;
3. Bitcoin's spot total assets have fallen below $100 billion at #etf , with a cumulative net inflow of 68918 BTC since its listing;
4. #Base ecological part tokens have begun to rise, with #BNKR and CLAWNCH leading the gains.

Bitcoin's recent price has been highly volatile, briefly dropping to around $60,000 last week, reversing all gains since Trump's re-election, and down more than 50% from the historical high in October last year. Accompanying the price adjustment, there has been a large-scale forced liquidation in the market. Despite continuous positive signals from US policy, it has failed to prevent this sell-off. Data shows that the total asset size of US Bitcoin spot ETFs has fallen below $100 billion, currently around $99.16 billion, shrinking about 40% from its peak, though cumulative net inflow since listing still exceeds 680,000 BTC.
This volatility once again highlights the high-risk characteristics of the crypto market. The sharp price fluctuations reflect the fragility of market sentiment and speculative funds, while ETF fund flows reveal the tug-of-war between short-term selling pressure and long-term institutional interest. Although long-term holders and structural demand (such as ETF net inflows) provide some support for the market, positive policies are difficult to reverse trends dominated by the macro environment or market confidence in the short term. For BTC, its price discovery process will still be accompanied by extreme volatility, and the shaking of market confidence may make it more susceptible to liquidity changes, testing its dual attributes as a risk asset and a potential store of value.

【February 6 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1. The global risk market plunged again, with #BTC dropping to the $60,000 mark, silver fell nearly 30% within 24 hours;
2. The total market value of cryptocurrencies dropped to $2.295 trillion, with a decline of over 10% in 24 hours;
3. #hype rose against the market trend, showing stable price performance during the market crash;
4. Currently, the weekly oversold signal strength of Bitcoin is comparable to that of June 2022.

Today, global risk assets faced massive sell-offs again, with the cryptocurrency market being hit the hardest. Bitcoin's price dipped to the $60,000 mark, while Ethereum lost the $1,800 support, causing a daily evaporation of over 10% in overall market value. This turmoil spread to traditional markets, with U.S. stock index futures, Japanese and Korean stock markets, and #GOLD , as well as precious metals like silver, all declining. The intense price fluctuations led to significant losses for leveraged traders, with the number of liquidations around the world surging in the past 24 hours, amounting to billions of dollars.
This widespread market decline reflects a rise in risk-aversion sentiment under tightening macro liquidity expectations. For Bitcoin, its weekly relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 25, entering a deep oversold range, highlighting technical vulnerabilities. The market's "Fear and Greed Index" also points to extreme fear, indicating that investor confidence has been severely undermined. If macro pressures persist, Bitcoin may face further tests, and in the short term, it is crucial to monitor whether effective support can be established near the key psychological Bitcoin level, while the medium to long-term trend will depend on whether market expectations regarding a shift in monetary policy can improve.

【February 5th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Analysis: The rebound momentum of #dollar has strengthened, putting pressure on gold and silver trends, and the downward pressure may continue;
2. Geopolitical tensions combined with the revaluation of tech stocks have kept the market in the later stages of deleveraging, with safe-haven assets dominating risk pricing;
3. After several twists and turns, negotiations between the US and Iran have resumed, with #BTC hitting a new low in a bear market, and the Nasdaq closing down 1.5% leading to a widespread decline in crypto stocks;
4. Tether released its Q4 report: #USDT data set several new highs in Q4 2025.

The US and Iran have differences regarding the location of talks on nuclear issues, with Iran proposing to move the meeting from the originally scheduled Istanbul to Oman, and hoping to conduct it bilaterally, but this proposal was rejected by the US. This setback once prompted the Trump administration to threaten to withdraw from negotiations, followed by high-level mediation from several Middle Eastern countries. Ultimately, the talks were set to take place on February 6th in Muscat, the capital of Oman.
This geopolitical uncertainty quickly transmitted to financial markets. Bitcoin prices have continuously declined during the news disturbance, currently nearing the $70,000 mark, setting a recent new low. Meanwhile, the US tech sector and cryptocurrency-related stocks have generally seen significant declines, with the market experiencing substantial long position liquidations. This reflects that, against the backdrop of the ongoing global deleveraging process, the market is highly sensitive to liquidity tightening and geopolitical risks. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are still widely regarded as barometers of risk appetite, and during times of rising macro uncertainty and capital leaning towards defense, they often come under pressure first. Future market trends will still need close monitoring of whether the geopolitical situation escalates and whether adjustments in tech stock valuations will trigger broader asset sell-offs.

【February 4th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Goldman Sachs: Western capital flows dominated the precious metals market in January, with upward risks in the gold forecast;
2. #Vitalik stated that #L2 's original vision is 'outdated,' sparking heated discussions: the original route is no longer reasonable, calling for a search for new paths;
3. #BTC has erased all gains since #TRUMP was elected;
4. Senate Democrats will hold another closed-door meeting tomorrow regarding the '#CLARITY bill'.

The price of Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its historical high last October, briefly dipping below $73,000, erasing all gains since the U.S. election in November last year. Analysts believe that Bitcoin's hedging properties are being questioned, with its performance resembling that of purely speculative assets. If the downward trend continues, it could pose a serious threat to the balance sheets of companies that actively allocated Bitcoin as a reserve asset over the past year. Meanwhile, the spot Bitcoin ETF, while expanding the investor base, has also reinforced its characteristics as a risk asset, significantly increasing its correlation with U.S. stocks. Recently, the Bitcoin ETF has continued to record significant capital outflows, indicating that institutional investors are withdrawing, which could create a negative feedback loop of accelerated selling in a declining market.
The deeper impact of this crash could potentially shake the overall structure of the cryptocurrency market. If prices further decline to critical cost lines, a large number of miners will face existential crises, directly affecting the security foundation of the Bitcoin network. As the interweaving of crypto assets and traditional financial products becomes increasingly tight, a sharp drop in Bitcoin could trigger a cross-market collateral liquidation crisis. This would not only severely impact financial products that rely on such structures but could also lead to a sudden liquidity drought, transmitting risks to a broader range of crypto assets.

【February 3rd Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Morgan Stanley: Under the leadership of Kevin Walsh, #Fed may intensify fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury market;
2. The U.S. Senate passed a compromise plan to avoid government shutdown, the House faces a critical 'rule vote' test;
3. Bloomberg: ETF investors with #BTC have an average buying cost of about $84,100, currently facing a floating loss of about 8% to 9%;
4. #TRUMP : I am a staunch supporter of cryptocurrency and one of the most vocal advocates for the crypto industry.

Morgan Stanley pointed out that Kevin Walsh, the nominee to replace Powell as Federal Reserve Chair in May, may reshape the communication framework of monetary policy. This official, who served as a governor from 2006 to 2011, advocates for allowing the market to independently assess economic trends. His inclination to 'reduce the balance sheet' may push up long-term Treasury yields, leading to a steepening of the yield curve. More concerning is that the Federal Reserve under Walsh may significantly reduce transparency—reducing media interactions before FOMC meetings and even canceling forward guidance tools like the dot plot. This shift in communication style may amplify fluctuations in the Treasury market.
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a 'silent' adjustment. The average holding cost for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors is about $84,100, while the current price has dipped to around $78,500, indicating that this portion of institutional funds is facing an 8%-9% floating loss. A deeper issue is the 'collective absence' of buying power: since mid-January, ETFs have experienced large net outflows for two consecutive weeks, selling over 27,000 Bitcoins, showing that institutions have not bought back after the cost line was breached. Unlike the panic selling during the sharp decline in October 2024, the characteristic of this round of decline is the withdrawal of liquidity and market indifference—the once optimistic regulatory expectations and retail enthusiasm that pushed the price to $125,000 have faded. If funds continue to exit, the 200-week moving average near $57,000 will become a critical defense line, which has historically served as an opportunity for long-term funds to re-enter. It is worth noting that Bitcoin has recently decoupled from traditional favorable factors such as a weak dollar and geopolitical risks, and the weakening appeal of macro narratives has led to a loss of direction. A short-term rebound without incremental funds is more likely to be a technical correction rather than a trend reversal.

【February 2nd Cryptocurrency Market News and Data Analysis】
1. This week's macro outlook: Non-farm data is coming, and the trend of #GOLD may affect the flow of funds;
2. Antminer #S19 and other lower series miners have reached the shutdown coin price, while the Antminer S21 series is close to the shutdown coin price range of approximately $69,000 to $74,000;
3. Overview of this week's unlocking data: #HYPE , BERA, XDC, etc. will welcome a one-time large token unlocking;
4. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March.

On Monday, market sentiment remained tense, with the US dollar performing strongly, while Asian and US stock futures generally fell. Commodities suffered a significant decline, with gold and silver prices dropping sharply, and crude oil also saw a notable decrease. Factors causing the global market downturn include geopolitical influences and last Friday's surge in the US dollar due to Trump's nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman, which recorded the largest increase in several months.
#BTC price has fallen back to approximately $74,600, below the average holding cost line of large institutions' strategies. According to mining pool data, under the current electricity price, the mainstream mining machine models in the market have reached or are approaching their shutdown price range. This represents double pressure for the cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin: on one hand, the overall market's risk-averse sentiment has weakened the attractiveness of risk assets; on the other hand, if the coin price continues to be below the operating costs of major mining machines, it may lead to some miners shutting down, thereby affecting network computing power and potentially triggering stronger sell-off expectations, exacerbating market volatility.

【January 30th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The geopolitical war situation is heating up, with the U.S. military sending additional warships to the Middle East. Global assets such as U.S. stocks, #GOLD , precious metals, and cryptocurrencies are declining;
2. #TRUMP Trump states that the Federal Reserve chair candidate has been shortlisted twice, and Waller's nomination is now almost certain;
3. #crypto The liquidation amount in the cryptocurrency market over the past 24 hours has risen to 1.681 billion USD, with long positions liquidating at 1.574 billion USD;
4. A surge of funds into Asian gold ETFs raises alarms, as the market worries that gold prices are nearing a short-term peak.

Latest news indicates that the U.S. Navy has deployed additional destroyers to the Middle East, further escalating tensions in the region. As a result, major global risk assets have generally faced sell-offs, with U.S. stock indices and traditional assets like precious metals experiencing significant corrections. The cryptocurrency market has also not been spared, with #BTC Bitcoin's price quickly dropping from around $88,000 to $81,000, while the total liquidation amount across the network has sharply increased, particularly affecting long positions.
This market response indicates that in the face of sudden geopolitical risks, cryptocurrencies are still seen as high-risk assets, with their prices showing a high positive correlation with traditional risk assets like U.S. stocks. Severe price fluctuations have triggered mass forced liquidations of high-leverage long positions, creating a typical negative feedback loop of "decline - liquidation - further decline." For Bitcoin, its price movements in the short term will continue to be constrained by global macro risk sentiment, with volatility likely remaining high. In the long term, if geopolitical tensions become normalized, it may prompt some funds to reassess their hedging properties as alternative assets, but this process will be accompanied by severe market pain.

【January 29 Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、#FOMC‬⁩ 1 January resolution finalized: the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged, and if tariff inflation peaks and then falls back, policy can be relaxed;
2、"Reuters": #whitehouse will convene bank and cryptocurrency industry executives next Monday to promote the legislative process of the "CLARITY Act";
3、The US #SEC released a guide to tokenized securities, incorporating them into the federal securities legal framework;
4、#GOLD set a new historical high, Tether has made over 5 billion dollars from buying gold, steadily purchasing 1 to 2 tons per week.

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% at its first monetary policy meeting of the year, ending a three-quarter cycle of rate cuts. Chairman Powell stated after the meeting that the current inflation pressure mainly comes from tariffs, and if its impact peaks and falls back, it will create conditions for policy easing; he also emphasized that the Federal Reserve should maintain its independence and advised his successor to stay away from political distractions. After the resolution was announced, market risk aversion drove precious metals to strengthen significantly, with spot gold prices approaching historical highs of nearly 5600 dollars per ounce.
This pause in rate cuts poses short-term pressure on the cryptocurrency market, especially on #BTC . Historical data shows that Bitcoin often experiences corrections after FOMC meetings, and this "curse" seems to be confirmed again. This is mainly due to the market's repricing of liquidity expectations: pausing rate cuts implies a delay in the easing pace, weakening some investors' short-term enthusiasm for risk assets. The strong rise in gold also diverted some safe-haven funds. As an asset highly sensitive to macro liquidity, Bitcoin prices tend to be more volatile and prone to profit-taking when interest rate policies enter a wait-and-see phase. Subsequent trends will closely depend on inflation data and more signals from the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of restarting rate cuts.

【January 28th Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#dollar index #DXY hits a new low since February 2022, as the crypto market continues to rebound;
2、The market is warming up, on-chain whales show divergence: the bullish iron hands buy more as prices rise, while smart money reduces positions at highs;
3、#hype leads the altcoin rebound, rising 50% in the last two days;
4、#BTC the overall network computing power hits the largest historical decline, possibly related to extreme weather in the United States.

Recently, the global financial market has been focusing on the continuous weakening of the yen and the fluctuations in the Japanese government bond market. Some analysts believe this may prompt the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury to act together by expanding the balance sheet to provide liquidity support to stabilize the relevant markets. If this scenario comes true, it means that the global fiat currency system will welcome a new injection of liquidity.
This macro background poses potential impacts on the crypto market. Traditionally, an environment of liquidity expansion is often favorable for crypto assets like Bitcoin. Currently, while mainstream coins are rebounding, there are divergences internally: some investors are waiting for clear policy signals, while others have already positioned early or taken profits. Meanwhile, market risk appetite has somewhat rebounded, with some altcoins and emerging ecological tokens performing strongly. Investors are closely watching policy trends to determine whether this will become a key macro turning point driving the crypto market into a new cycle.

【January 27th Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Opinion: The US dollar is weakening, and the Federal Reserve's easing should benefit cryptocurrencies, but deleveraging and the continued strength of precious metals suppress the performance of #BTC and #ETH ;
2. #Vitalik : The scalability layers of blockchain can be summarized as computation, data, and state, where computation and data can replace state;
3. Current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates show a slight easing of market bearish sentiment compared to yesterday;
4. Analysis: #GOLD continues to rise, and stock market valuations are relatively high, which may drive a rebalancing of funds into the cryptocurrency market.

The US dollar has weakened this week, and the yen exchange rate has surged to a two-month high. The market speculates that US and Japanese authorities may act together to support the yen, and this expectation has warmed after remarks from Japanese officials. Meanwhile, ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and potential personnel changes in the US, investors are choosing to reduce dollar exposure, which is also dragging down concerns about a possible government shutdown. The dollar to yen exchange rate has seen significant declines over the past two days, marking the largest drop in nearly a year. Market operations indicate that the New York Fed has asked major traders about exchange rates, which is often seen as a preparatory step for official intervention. Analysts point out that if the willingness of both the US and Japan is clear, the intensity of intervention will be stronger, but its effects are often short-lived under fundamental pressure.
Research interpretation suggests that the weakening of the dollar and potential easing expectations should create a macro favorable environment for cryptocurrencies. However, the current cryptocurrency market has already completed deleveraging within the industry, and the previously strong leverage-boosting effect has not emerged. In the short term, market funds show a clear “risk aversion” or “FOMO” flow, favoring the continuously rising gold and silver, which has diverted funds that might have entered the cryptocurrency field. However, historical cycles show that after a strong phase of precious metals, a rotation of funds often occurs, and core crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to subsequently capture market attention. The price of Bitcoin has now risen close to $89,000; although the overall market sentiment has slightly eased, a bearish consensus on altcoins still widely exists.

【January 26 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group 'Lincoln' has arrived in the Middle East, with spot price #GOLD historically breaking through $5000/ounce for the first time;
2. Spot gold opened the day with a surge of over $100, and gold-related tokens have risen simultaneously;
3. Current mainstream CEX and DEX funding rates indicate that the market is fully bearish, with rates on various platforms #ETH showing negative values;
4. Important macro events and data forecasts for this week: #FOMC‬⁩ interest rate decision announcement, major tech stocks' earnings reports are being released one after another.

The situation in the Middle East is heating up again, as the U.S. military's 'Lincoln' aircraft carrier strike group has entered the area to conduct operations, and the Air Force is also about to hold combat readiness exercises, demonstrating military presence and rapid deployment capabilities in this key region. At the same time, market expectations for a short-term outbreak of direct conflict are not high, but the tense atmosphere is sufficient to drive traditional safe-haven asset prices soaring, with spot gold historically standing above the $5000 per ounce mark, while U.S. stock index futures have responded with declines.
This has also had a complex impact on the cryptocurrency market. During the current risk-averse cycle, Bitcoin #BTC prices are under pressure to decline. More critically, market sentiment indicators: funding rates on major trading platforms show that, apart from Bitcoin, funding rates for Ethereum and other major altcoins have turned negative, indicating that the derivatives market is generally bearish on altcoins. This divergence suggests that, under the macro uncertainty exacerbated by geopolitical risks, internal funds in the cryptocurrency market are re-evaluating risks, and capital may be more inclined to concentrate on Bitcoin, which is viewed as a core asset, while other tokens face stronger selling pressure. Short-term trends will depend on whether the risk of conflict will substantively escalate and whether Bitcoin can consolidate its safe-haven attributes amid turmoil.

【January 23rd Market News and Data Analysis】
1. The chairman of the United States #SEC : will discuss the coordination of cryptocurrency regulation with the CFTC next week, and will also be live-streamed online;
2. Analysis: Fund managers' cash holdings have reached a historic low, reflecting extreme bullish sentiment among investors;
3. #NASDAQ applied to cancel the position limits on ETF options contracts #BTC and #ETH ;
4. #Musk launched a mid-term election plan aimed at attracting more local voters for Trump.

Market sentiment and institutional levels are showing subtle changes. On one hand, the cash allocation ratio of fund managers has dropped to a historical low of 3.2%, indicating that risk appetite in traditional sectors has reached its peak, and funds may seek assets with higher returns. Meanwhile, Nasdaq is promoting rule changes aimed at removing unequal position limits for Bitcoin ETF options; if approved, this will provide institutions with more flexible hedging and investment tools, serving as an important signal of institutional acceptance.
Overall, these dynamics have a complex impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin. Extremely low volatility and historically similar compression patterns often precede significant price breakthroughs. However, on-chain data clearly shows that the market has shifted from profit-taking to loss confirmation, with overall participation languishing and liquidity scarce. This 'cold bottoming' state means that prices are extremely sensitive to any influx of funds. Positive institutional developments (such as the easing of options rules) could become key catalysts, attracting sidelined funds to enter the market, potentially ending the current consolidation pattern and initiating a new trend. The current market is at a critical juncture transitioning from stagnation to potential reversal.

【January 22 Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#TRUMP Davos Speech Summary: Will not use force against Greenland, reaffirmed support for cryptocurrency, market rebounds;
2、#usa M2 money supply reaches a historic high;
3、X platform has 6 major updates in 10 days, which will have a profound impact on the cryptocurrency community;
4、The latest text of the U.S. Senate Agricultural Committee's cryptocurrency market structure bill failed to reach an agreement with the Democrats.

Trump delivered his latest speech at the Davos Forum, where he downplayed geopolitical disputes and emphasized that the Greenland issue would not be resolved by force, expressing an optimistic outlook for the stock market; on the other hand, he clearly supported the development of cryptocurrencies, stressing that the U.S. needs to consolidate its position as the "global cryptocurrency capital," and revealed that Congress is advancing related market structure legislation. Additionally, he announced the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair, but also expressed concerns about decision-making independence.
From the perspective of the impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially on #BTC , in terms of liquidity, M2 reaching a historic high indicates that the macro environment remains ample, traditionally benefitting risk assets including Bitcoin. On the policy level, Trump reiterated his support for the cryptocurrency industry, and the advancement of market structure legislation (albeit possibly slightly delayed) significantly enhances the long-term expectation of a clearer U.S. regulatory framework, which will help attract traditional capital. Short-term market sentiment is boosted by his reassuring remarks. However, the uncertainty regarding the new Federal Reserve chair may lead to volatility in monetary policy expectations. Overall, ample liquidity and improved regulatory prospects constitute major benefits, and it is expected to enhance market confidence in Bitcoin as a digital asset, but attention should be paid to the specific implementation pace of the bill and changes in Federal Reserve personnel.

【January 21 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. U.S. Treasury Secretary: The market decline is influenced by abnormal fluctuations in the Japanese bond market and has nothing to do with #Greenland ;
2. #BTC relative to #GOLD 's RSI has broken below 30 in extreme overselling, occurring only 4 times in history;
3. The international situation is once again turbulent, with spot gold rising 10% in 20 days, breaking through $4800 per ounce;
4. The projected daily trading volume in the market is expected to exceed $814 million, setting a historical high, with the potential for six consecutive months of increased trading activity.

Short-term fluctuations in the global financial market have intensified, with senior officials at the U.S. Treasury pointing out that the severe turbulence in the Japanese government bond market has triggered a chain reaction, affecting the European and American bond markets, leading to an increase in bond yields in major countries worldwide. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated, with the U.S. taking a hardline stance on the Greenland issue and threatening tariffs on Europe, increasing market concerns about trade conflicts. Against this backdrop, safe-haven asset gold prices have soared, historically breaking through the $4800 per ounce barrier, with remarkable gains since the beginning of the year.
This market environment has complex impacts on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin's relative strength index (#RSI ) against gold falls into the overselling zone below 30, it often signals an important turning point in the market. Such situations occurred in 2015, 2018, 2022, and most recently in late 2025, and each time, Bitcoin achieved a strong rebound relative to gold afterward. Currently, in the context of gold soaring due to safe-haven demand while Bitcoin underperforms, this historic overselling signal has appeared again. This suggests that if historical patterns repeat, the current market panic and capital flows may be building momentum for a significant rebound in Bitcoin, and investors need to closely monitor this rebalancing process following extreme divergence.

【January 20th Daily Market News and Data Analysis】
1、#Fed 1 The probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is 95%;
2、The Federal Reserve #Powell will attend the hearing of Director Cook at the Supreme Court;
3、Spot #Silver surged 5% within the day, setting a new historical high;
4、Glassnode: #BTC short-term investors have been in an unrealized loss state since November 25.

According to the latest data, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will remain steady this month, with a very low possibility of interest rate cuts, and the cumulative probability of rate cuts until March is also relatively limited. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that since November last year, short-term Bitcoin holders have generally been in an unrealized loss state, with an average loss of about 22%. To turn this group of investors overall into profit, the Bitcoin price may need to rise above $98,000.
From a market impact perspective, maintaining high short-term interest rates means that the dollar liquidity environment remains tight, which may continue to suppress the valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin. However, on-chain indicators also reveal that new investors are generally in a state of unrealized losses, which has similarities with the characteristics of historical market cyclical bottoms. Looking back at the bear markets of 2018 and 2022, short-term holders often cleared speculative bubbles after experiencing large-scale losses and selling at a loss, which paved the way for subsequent bull markets. Therefore, the current state of sustained losses for new investors may indicate that the market is undergoing a painful washout and bottoming process, accumulating a foundation for healthier upward trends in the future.

【January 19 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Important events and data forecasts this week: United States #PCE , Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting;
2. #Fed candidate changes: Hassett may withdraw, Walsh becomes the biggest favorite;
3. Analysis: The market is worried about a trade war between the US and Europe, with #BTC experiencing a drop of over 3% in a short period;
4. Altcoins generally fell, with SENT dropping over 33% in 24 hours.

Today, the cryptocurrency market experienced a significant downturn, with Bitcoin's price briefly dropping below $92,000. This widespread decline was accompanied by the liquidation of high long leverage positions, making market sentiment particularly fragile. The direct catalyst was the sudden escalation of trade tensions between the US and Europe, with both sides proposing tariff plans involving substantial goods, raising investor concerns about the deterioration of the macro environment.
Research analysis indicates that this situation has exposed the structural weaknesses within the cryptocurrency market itself. Compared to other traditional risk assets that performed steadily or even rose during trade disputes, the decline in cryptocurrencies is particularly pronounced. This suggests that, at the current stage, cryptocurrency assets are still viewed by some investors as options to prioritize reducing holdings in the risk hierarchy, rather than as safe-haven choices. For Bitcoin, this relatively weak performance means its price is more prone to fluctuations when facing external macro shocks and may face pressure from capital flowing into other more resilient asset classes. The market needs stronger endogenous motivation or broader acceptance to effectively withstand the impacts of such systemic concerns.

【January 16 Market News and Data Analysis】
1. Analysis: This year's inflation may far exceed expectations, #Fed interest rate cut outlook changes;
2. The White House disclosed that #TRUMP holds bonds from several companies affected by its policies;
3. Economist: #Japan The central bank has the highest probability of raising interest rates in July, and the depreciation of the yen may force early action;
4. #BSC The market value of on-chain Meme coins has seen a rebound today, with low market cap Meme coins themed around the Year of the Horse leading the gains.

At the beginning of this year, concerns about inflation possibly resurfacing gradually emerged. Rising metal prices, increased energy and infrastructure spending driven by the development of artificial intelligence, and the policy uncertainty caused by President Trump's potential replacement of the Federal Reserve chairman in May may all lead to inflation levels exceeding earlier expectations. Although inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, if price pressures persist, the market's previously expected two interest rate cuts within the year may be at risk of not materializing, and there is even a possibility of no rate cuts. Although the stock and bond markets have not fully reflected this risk, some institutions have already adopted a defensive posture. Some investors point out that if the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks 4.3%, it may indicate that inflation and the financial markets will face greater pressure. The newly appointed president of the Philadelphia Fed, as an FOMC voting member, recently expressed support for maintaining the current interest rates, emphasizing the need to rely on data to remain patient, and to pay attention to the potential risk of unexpected cooling in the labor market.
This economic signal has a complex impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin. If inflation concerns delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut process, maintaining a higher interest rate level may temporarily suppress market liquidity and increase the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, thereby bringing price correction pressure. However, from a medium-term perspective, if the economy shows a "soft but not excessively soft" "golden setting," where inflation gently recedes without a collapse in the labor market, this may create future space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Once liquidity expectations improve, Bitcoin, as a high-beta asset, may attract capital back. Paulson's dovish stance, which emphasizes the labor market, suggests that while the Federal Reserve works to curb inflation, it may also avoid excessive tightening. If this balance is achieved properly, it could slow down the market's extreme volatility and provide a certain buffer for the cryptocurrency market.

【January 15, Market Information and Data Analysis】
1、Trump: There are currently no plans to fire Powell, and it's too early to delve into #Fed ;
2、Arthur Hayes' new article: It's expected that #TRUMP will flood the market with liquidity to stimulate the economy ahead of the mid-term elections, and Bitcoin will strongly rebound as U.S. dollar liquidity recovers;
3、Santiment: The current situation of whales buying and retail investors selling represents an ideal positioning pattern for the start of a bull market;
4、The current funding rates on major CEXs and #DEX indicate the market is attempting to 'top out and short' again.

#BTC price rose nearly to the $98,000 level, and the funding rates between major CEXs and DEXs have turned negative, indicating professional capital is attempting a 'topping out and shorting' strategy. Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that since January 10, 'whale' and 'shark' addresses holding 10-10,000 BTC have cumulatively increased their holdings by 32,693 BTC, a 0.24% rise, while 'shrimp' addresses holding less than 0.01 BTC have cumulatively sold 149 BTC, with holdings decreasing by 0.30%.
This phenomenon indicates the market is entering a phase dominated by 'smart money.' Retail investors, lacking confidence in the initial market movement, are choosing to观望 or exit, leading to negative funding rates in altcoins. At the same time, continuous inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and accumulation by smart money are injecting new momentum into the market. If this positioning is sustained, BTC may break through the $100,000 level in the short term, leading the next wave of bull market.