Column Preface: Bridging the gap between 'knowing' and 'doing'
Part One: Cognitive Awakening (Understanding the mind and blind spots) Core task: Identify the 'factory settings' defects of the brain and see through the thinking traps. Ep.01 Cognitive traps: Recency effect and probability thinking [Published] Keywords: Recency effect, probability thinking, basic probability Introduction: Why are we always trapped by the results of the 'last transaction'? How do we cut the erroneous links between the past and the present? 深度解析:交易决策中的“近因效应”与认知重构 Ep.02 The lie of charts: Representativeness bias and confirmation bias Keywords: Representativeness heuristic, confirmation bias, technical form illusion
In-depth Analysis: 'Loss Aversion' and the Sunk Cost Trap in Trading
Loss Aversion is consistently regarded by Gary Dayton and Mark Douglas as the most stubborn and destructive psychological trap faced by traders. It is not only an emotional response but also a deeply rooted biological defense mechanism. It directly distorts traders' assessment of risk and probability, being the culprit behind the fatal error of 'cutting profits short and letting losses run (holding onto positions).' ────────────────── 1. Core Definition: The Asymmetry of Pain
In-Depth Analysis: The 'Confirmation Bias' and the Cage of Self-Deception in Trading
Confirmation Bias is regarded by Gary Dayton and Mark Douglas as one of the most common and deceptive psychological traps for traders. The core of this bias lies in the asymmetric processing of information: traders tend to observe the market through a "filter lens"—automatically capturing and amplifying information that supports their positions while unconsciously screening out, distorting, or downplaying warning signals that contradict their viewpoints. ────────────────── 1. Psychological Mechanism: To feel good and to defend against pain
In-Depth Analysis: The 'Recency Effect' and Cognitive Restructuring in Trading Decisions
In behavioral finance and trading psychology, the recency effect is one of the core cognitive biases that leads to traders having a long-term negative expected value. Combining the theoretical frameworks of Gary Dayton (Stock Market Depth Trading Psychology) and Mark Douglas (The Disciplined Trader), this article will analyze from three dimensions: cognitive mechanisms, specific manifestations, and correction strategies. ────────────────── 1. Core Mechanism: Imbalance of Cognitive Weight The recency effect is not simply 'forgetfulness', but a type of cognitive weighting error.
$BTC If BTC can firmly hold above $76,500 (it must be a valid breakout, for example, a 4H close above), it means the short-term downward structure is broken, potentially opening up a decent rebound.
Next wave target:
1. First target: $78,500 - $79,000 • Logic: This is the central area of the previous consolidation range ($78k-$80k), and also the starting acceleration point of this round of decline. There will be a lot of trapped positions selling pressure here. • Nature: The limit of an oversold rebound. If it is a weak rebound, it is likely to stop here.
2. Second target: $80,500 • Logic: Psychological round number + daily level resistance. • Nature: Only by breaking through here can we declare the end of a major adjustment and return to a bull market trajectory.
3. Extreme target (short squeeze): $82,000 • Logic: If $78k is violently broken, triggering a series of short stop-losses (Short Squeeze), the price may spike to around $82k to hunt for liquidity.
Operational advice: If it holds above $76,500, you can try to enter a long position with a light position:
• Entry: Confirm a pullback at $76,500. • Stop-loss: $75,800 (stop-loss if it falls back into the range). • Take profit: Take profits in batches at $78,200 and $78,800. But please remember, this is still a rebound in a bear market (Bear Market Rally), don’t be greedy, go in and out quickly.
$BTC Set stop losses well, and fear no market condition. If you miss this, wait for the next opportunity🏆
Based on technical analysis and order book data, pay close attention to the following key levels:
Resistance above (bearish defense/selling point)
1. $75,200: Short-term resistance level. If there is a very weak rebound, it won't get past here. 2. $76,500 - $77,000: Core resistance area. This was the lower bound of the previous consolidation range and has now become strong resistance. If the price rebounds to here and gets blocked, it is an excellent selling point. 3. $78,500: Bull-bear dividing line. Only if it stands back here, the panic downtrend can be considered over. Then monitor subsequent levels.
Support below (bullish defense/take profit point)
1. $74,000: Round psychological level. It just spiked to $74.5k; if it tests $74k again, it could trigger new panic. 2. $72,000 - $72,500: Strong support area. This is a key support level on the daily chart and a large-scale Liquidity Pool. If it drops here, there is a high probability of a strong rebound.
$XRP 💡 Core Logic Reverse Game Theory and Momentum Resonance: In the context of extreme market panic (F&G 17) and a neutral long-term trend (Neutral), the bullish pattern on the 1H chart is the most effective breakout signal, indicating that short-term selling pressure is exhausted, and the price will mean revert towards the upper resistance zone with the least resistance.
⚔️ Long and Short Game 🐻 Bears: Emphasize that the market is in a "dead cat bounce," lacking bottom support, believing that the 1H rise is a trap for buyers, advocating for shorting in the direction of panic (Fade the Rip). 🐂 Bulls: Advocate "When others panic, I am greedy," pointing out that neutrality on the 4H/1D indicates a pause in the downtrend, and a structural breakdown on the 1H is an entry signal, suggesting to bet on a rebound at the lower boundary in a choppy market. ⚖️ Verdict: Adopt the Bull viewpoint. 1. In the current market environment, the continuation of shorts is extremely poor, and the risk of chasing shorts is greater than buying on the left side. 2. Signal Level: The "neutral" on the 4H/1D negates the assumption of a one-sided decline, providing room for the "bullish" on the 1H to play out. 3. Sentiment Divergence: Extreme panic (17) typically corresponds to a local bottom, and at this point, a small cycle buy signal appears, with a better risk-reward ratio than shorting in a vacuum without support.
📍 Execution Plan Entry: 1.6065 (Enter at the current price directly, or add positions near 1.6000 on a pullback) Stop Loss: 1.5580 (Breaks below the recent consolidation lower boundary and integer level, preventing entry into a "no support" abyss) Take Profit: 1.6850 (Short-term resistance test), 1.7500 (Swing target)
⚠️ Risk Factors Liquidity Vacuum: Due to the lack of clear support levels, once panic selling occurs, prices may instantly breach stop losses (Slippage Risk).
$ZRO Wait for a pullback near 1.9-2.0 for a light position
Stop loss at 1.84 (get out if it breaks)
First take profit at 2.14
Second take profit looks at the previous high of 2.38
Wow, the fear index is at 16. The last time I saw this number was during last year's big drop. Just took a look at the market, BTC has dropped from 90k to 82k, and everyone in the group is crying out. Some guys are even saying they're going to start delivering food 😂
But I found something interesting — ZRO actually increased by 7% today?? The market is in chaos, yet it’s still in the green, this is strange
Spent some time digging into it: the cross-chain leader has solid technology, the daily line is still rising, just a pullback, and the unlocking won't happen until June 2027, so there’s not much selling pressure in the short term, with a circulating supply of only 26.8%
To be honest, a coin that can go against the tide when the market is this fearful is worth a closer look. Of course, I’m not saying to rush in now, wait for it to pull back near 1.9 and then we’ll talk
By the way, how high do you all think BTC can go this time? I saw someone on Twitter calling for 70k or even 55k, that's a bit outrageous... Let’s chat in the comments👇
$RIVER Why can it go up more? How it drops sharply is how it rises back, and this wave might even reach a new high.
Pay attention to the volume and price situation around 44; if it stabilizes and pulls back, it will be an opportunity to increase positions.
If there is a significant increase in buy orders on the 5-minute chart and it does not create a lower low, it is absolutely safe to go in boldly, just with a stop loss.
The last sharp drop occurred after a significant increase in volume on the 5-minute chart, which created a new high without making a new low. {future}(RIVERUSDT)