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#BTC #ETH Past Performance:
Understanding Coin Cat, Binance Smart Money: 1st in November, 3rd in December, 1st in 90 days
Total profit of 15 million over 2 months, large funds quadrupled in 2 months
Annual ranking has also reached 13th place
Coin Cat trading community is recruiting!
If you want to achieve significant wealth growth in a bull market
If you are like me and are interested in trading, and want to make trading your main profession
If you are currently learning and want a complete trading system and automated trading strategies
If you have a large amount of capital and want to do asset allocation
Or
You want to save money on fees, whether you are a whale, a big player, or a newcomer
Or you have resources and want to find a cash flow income, you can also be a supporter of Coin Cat
The main thing is to follow the smart money real-time bloggers, learn together, make money together, trade together, and save on fees. Join Coin Cat and let's huddle together for warmth
Join the Coin Cat family through the following ways, layout for the bull market with Coin Cat, and achieve stable wealth growth
Coin Cat 20% off invitation code: CATBTC (case insensitive)
Chinese-speaking area: https://www.maxweb.chat/join?ref=CATBTC
Overseas: https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/join?ref=CATBTC
Understanding Coin Cat, Binance Smart Money: 1st in November, 3rd in December, 1st in 90 days
Total profit of 15 million over 2 months, large funds quadrupled in 2 months
Annual ranking has also reached 13th place
Coin Cat trading community is recruiting!
If you want to achieve significant wealth growth in a bull market
If you are like me and are interested in trading, and want to make trading your main profession
If you are currently learning and want a complete trading system and automated trading strategies
If you have a large amount of capital and want to do asset allocation
Or
You want to save money on fees, whether you are a whale, a big player, or a newcomer
Or you have resources and want to find a cash flow income, you can also be a supporter of Coin Cat
The main thing is to follow the smart money real-time bloggers, learn together, make money together, trade together, and save on fees. Join Coin Cat and let's huddle together for warmth
Join the Coin Cat family through the following ways, layout for the bull market with Coin Cat, and achieve stable wealth growth
Coin Cat 20% off invitation code: CATBTC (case insensitive)
Chinese-speaking area: https://www.maxweb.chat/join?ref=CATBTC
Overseas: https://www.binance.com/zh-CN/join?ref=CATBTC
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💥Binance smart money blogger, November monthly ranking first🥇, December monthly ranking second🥈
When registering, fill in the Binance invitation code: CATBTC
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At least two core content live broadcasts in the VIP group every week
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Click on the Binance APP - Home top left corner "three horizontal lines"
Click on the top right corner scan
Scan the QR code to add friends
🎈Use the invitation link below, not only can you get fee discounts, but also receive teaching and strategy services~
🔸Rebate link
https://www.binance.com/join?ref=CATBTC
When registering, fill in the Binance invitation code: CATBTC
Join the Dongbi Cat Trading Academy to learn trading together, and also save on fees
Enjoy the self-use strategy of Dongbi Cat, learn, trade, and make money with the smart money blogger
At least two core content live broadcasts in the VIP group every week
How to find Dongbi Cat?
Method 1:
You can directly open the APP and scan the QR code in the picture to add friends
Click on the Binance APP - Home top left corner "three horizontal lines"
Click on the top right corner scan
Scan the QR code to add friends
🎈Use the invitation link below, not only can you get fee discounts, but also receive teaching and strategy services~
🔸Rebate link
https://www.binance.com/join?ref=CATBTC
#复利 #回撤控制
Let's talk about the relationship between compound interest and drawdown
Livermore said, "The last dollar at the end cannot be earned"
From the perspective of compound interest, this statement has another layer of meaning:
That last dollar of profit
If it causes you to lose three dollars in the next drawdown
It is no longer profit, it is a liability
Let's talk about the relationship between compound interest and drawdown
Livermore said, "The last dollar at the end cannot be earned"
From the perspective of compound interest, this statement has another layer of meaning:
That last dollar of profit
If it causes you to lose three dollars in the next drawdown
It is no longer profit, it is a liability
#BTC #ETH
Today let's talk about the relationship between drawdowns and compound interest again.
In the live broadcast, I have been emphasizing the importance of stop-loss and the method of compound interest operation. I believe many friends have experienced making several times, dozens of times, or even hundreds of times in a short period, like a week or a month.
But ultimately, when the time is extended, say a year or two or three years, their assets do not increase but decrease instead.
Why?
Some traders go bankrupt because they trade randomly, lack a trading system, get emotional, and trade arbitrarily without a clear strategy, which inevitably leads to poor results, and that is to be expected.
However, most traders eventually go bankrupt not because of poor skills, but because after a significant drawdown, their mindset collapses, leading to irrational decisions.
A huge drawdown often causes investors to "cut losses" at the bottom and exit the market.
Or take risks to leverage in order to quickly recover their capital.
This can completely interrupt the process of compound interest and even lead to a total loss of principal.
After further significant drawdowns,
Most people will fall into "revenge trading,"
Wanting to quickly recover their capital, thus increasing their positions and relaxing their stop-losses,
Ultimately resulting in a total loss.
Or fall into "fear paralysis":
Not daring to open positions, missing out on subsequent market movements.
Is this the case for everyone?
Today let's talk about the relationship between drawdowns and compound interest again.
In the live broadcast, I have been emphasizing the importance of stop-loss and the method of compound interest operation. I believe many friends have experienced making several times, dozens of times, or even hundreds of times in a short period, like a week or a month.
But ultimately, when the time is extended, say a year or two or three years, their assets do not increase but decrease instead.
Why?
Some traders go bankrupt because they trade randomly, lack a trading system, get emotional, and trade arbitrarily without a clear strategy, which inevitably leads to poor results, and that is to be expected.
However, most traders eventually go bankrupt not because of poor skills, but because after a significant drawdown, their mindset collapses, leading to irrational decisions.
A huge drawdown often causes investors to "cut losses" at the bottom and exit the market.
Or take risks to leverage in order to quickly recover their capital.
This can completely interrupt the process of compound interest and even lead to a total loss of principal.
After further significant drawdowns,
Most people will fall into "revenge trading,"
Wanting to quickly recover their capital, thus increasing their positions and relaxing their stop-losses,
Ultimately resulting in a total loss.
Or fall into "fear paralysis":
Not daring to open positions, missing out on subsequent market movements.
Is this the case for everyone?
#BTC #ETH
Just a reminder, there is a high probability of entering a consolidation market in February and March.
In a consolidation market, you cannot have a fixed pattern; the focus should be mainly on short-term operations. At this time, profits should not be expected to be too high, and earnings should be taken promptly.
Moreover, most breakouts during consolidation are false breakouts, so it's essential to switch to a trend-following approach when entering the market.
Further thoughts on the consolidation market
Dealing with a consolidation market is essentially a "defensive counterattack" strategy.
Most of the time, we are on the defense:
Patiently observing, identifying boundaries, controlling positions.
In rare instances, we counterattack quickly:
Acting at clear boundary signals, taking profits quickly or securing earnings after making a profit.
Further, considering the consolidation market within our entire trading system,
Then we need to know when not to trade.
When the consolidation range is too narrow, boundaries are unclear, and market noise is extremely high, holding cash and observing is the optimal trading strategy.
Then the ultimate trading goal emerges.
The highest goal is not to profit at all times; you do not need to earn money every moment.
Instead, it is about being able to control your drawdowns in any market environment and avoiding black swans.
Maintaining stable growth of account assets.
Just a reminder, there is a high probability of entering a consolidation market in February and March.
In a consolidation market, you cannot have a fixed pattern; the focus should be mainly on short-term operations. At this time, profits should not be expected to be too high, and earnings should be taken promptly.
Moreover, most breakouts during consolidation are false breakouts, so it's essential to switch to a trend-following approach when entering the market.
Further thoughts on the consolidation market
Dealing with a consolidation market is essentially a "defensive counterattack" strategy.
Most of the time, we are on the defense:
Patiently observing, identifying boundaries, controlling positions.
In rare instances, we counterattack quickly:
Acting at clear boundary signals, taking profits quickly or securing earnings after making a profit.
Further, considering the consolidation market within our entire trading system,
Then we need to know when not to trade.
When the consolidation range is too narrow, boundaries are unclear, and market noise is extremely high, holding cash and observing is the optimal trading strategy.
Then the ultimate trading goal emerges.
The highest goal is not to profit at all times; you do not need to earn money every moment.
Instead, it is about being able to control your drawdowns in any market environment and avoiding black swans.
Maintaining stable growth of account assets.
The difficulty of the Shu Road is harder than ascending to the sky
The difficulty of trading is harder than going against human nature
Why do people come to this market, regardless of whether they succeed in the end or not, paying tuition is an inevitable path, mainly difficult in overcoming human nature
Think about how many decisions in our lives are dominated by emotional thinking, the innate "greed, anger, and ignorance," which are the main sources of losses
The vast majority of people have never had systematic training in the skill of overcoming human nature in their lives.
The difficulty of trading is harder than going against human nature
Why do people come to this market, regardless of whether they succeed in the end or not, paying tuition is an inevitable path, mainly difficult in overcoming human nature
Think about how many decisions in our lives are dominated by emotional thinking, the innate "greed, anger, and ignorance," which are the main sources of losses
The vast majority of people have never had systematic training in the skill of overcoming human nature in their lives.
#BTC #ETH
Livermore once said:
"The first dollar at the start and the last dollar at the end cannot be earned."
Why did the master say this?
The first dollar at the start of a trend is often accompanied by false breakouts and many "first dollars."
Therefore, the fish head is bony, has little meat, and carries high risk.
This is the market testing, luring, and creating the illusion of a breakout.
Only when the market has fully confirmed, breaking from the "first dollar" to the "second dollar,"
is our entry time for the trend to start.
And the last dollar
is the fish tail, with many bones, little meat, and great danger.
At this time, emotions are euphoric/panicked or excited, and reversals can happen at any moment.
We choose to only eat the "fish body,"
where the trend is clearest, momentum is strongest, and risk-reward ratio is optimal in the middle segment.
Learning to let go is sometimes also a good trade.
Livermore once said:
"The first dollar at the start and the last dollar at the end cannot be earned."
Why did the master say this?
The first dollar at the start of a trend is often accompanied by false breakouts and many "first dollars."
Therefore, the fish head is bony, has little meat, and carries high risk.
This is the market testing, luring, and creating the illusion of a breakout.
Only when the market has fully confirmed, breaking from the "first dollar" to the "second dollar,"
is our entry time for the trend to start.
And the last dollar
is the fish tail, with many bones, little meat, and great danger.
At this time, emotions are euphoric/panicked or excited, and reversals can happen at any moment.
We choose to only eat the "fish body,"
where the trend is clearest, momentum is strongest, and risk-reward ratio is optimal in the middle segment.
Learning to let go is sometimes also a good trade.
#BTC #ETH
How to understand the weak trend of the 4-hour and daily charts
When you understand the trend when Bitcoin breaks through 70,000, you also understand the structure of weak candlesticks
If consecutive 4-hour candlesticks appear, and the high of the next candlestick is lower than the previous one, and the low of the next candlestick is also lower than the previous one
Even at critical support levels or key reversal points in the structure, be careful of a direct breakdown or breakout
Do not let subjective thoughts interfere with our understanding of objective market conditions
How to understand the weak trend of the 4-hour and daily charts
When you understand the trend when Bitcoin breaks through 70,000, you also understand the structure of weak candlesticks
If consecutive 4-hour candlesticks appear, and the high of the next candlestick is lower than the previous one, and the low of the next candlestick is also lower than the previous one
Even at critical support levels or key reversal points in the structure, be careful of a direct breakdown or breakout
Do not let subjective thoughts interfere with our understanding of objective market conditions
#BTC #ETH
After the big drop on February 2nd, this is the first live broadcast where we share our understanding of the market trends.
Why do we say that trends are meant to be followed and not reversed? Once you go against the trend without a stop loss, the only outcome is to lose all your capital.
When it dropped to 78,000, I said the trend hadn't changed, so positions shouldn't be adjusted. If you're trading on a daily chart and there's no bottom signal, you cannot open a counter-position.
How to determine the bottom of this wave of decline, what are the signs of a bottom? One video explains it clearly.
After the big drop on February 2nd, this is the first live broadcast where we share our understanding of the market trends.
Why do we say that trends are meant to be followed and not reversed? Once you go against the trend without a stop loss, the only outcome is to lose all your capital.
When it dropped to 78,000, I said the trend hadn't changed, so positions shouldn't be adjusted. If you're trading on a daily chart and there's no bottom signal, you cannot open a counter-position.
How to determine the bottom of this wave of decline, what are the signs of a bottom? One video explains it clearly.
#BTC #ETH
Some thoughts and reflections on the market outlook
After the significant one-sided drop at the end of January, it is impossible for us to continue a one-sided market after taking profits from the short position; the possibility of a one-sided move either upwards or downwards in the short term is very small.
In February and March, the likelihood is high that we will experience a period of fluctuations and corrections, waiting for the volatility to decrease before choosing to move upwards or downwards.
At this point, a better strategy is to abandon one-sided movements and patterns; the profits from fluctuations can also be substantial, but the prerequisite is to avoid greed and actively take profits.
After a few more candlesticks, structural signals will begin to appear; this is when we observe and enter the market. This time, a rebound from the lowest point of 60,000 by 20% is 72,000, and a rebound of 30% is 78,000, which are also relatively valuable reference points.
For long-term BTC, I do not believe that this is the bottom of this bear market; the bottoming process cannot be completed in a short time, and the probability of a sharp bottom is relatively low. From BTC's historical perspective, this position is not the most desperate point for users; when users are most desperate and the market is completely ignored and withering, that is the best time for us to enter and catch the bottom. During this process, maintaining a swing trading approach is sufficient.
At the same time, BTC's four-year cycle has not yet been broken; the cycle is like a heavy truck driving fast; there will be a transition process from rapid driving to complete stop.
Some thoughts and reflections on the market outlook
After the significant one-sided drop at the end of January, it is impossible for us to continue a one-sided market after taking profits from the short position; the possibility of a one-sided move either upwards or downwards in the short term is very small.
In February and March, the likelihood is high that we will experience a period of fluctuations and corrections, waiting for the volatility to decrease before choosing to move upwards or downwards.
At this point, a better strategy is to abandon one-sided movements and patterns; the profits from fluctuations can also be substantial, but the prerequisite is to avoid greed and actively take profits.
After a few more candlesticks, structural signals will begin to appear; this is when we observe and enter the market. This time, a rebound from the lowest point of 60,000 by 20% is 72,000, and a rebound of 30% is 78,000, which are also relatively valuable reference points.
For long-term BTC, I do not believe that this is the bottom of this bear market; the bottoming process cannot be completed in a short time, and the probability of a sharp bottom is relatively low. From BTC's historical perspective, this position is not the most desperate point for users; when users are most desperate and the market is completely ignored and withering, that is the best time for us to enter and catch the bottom. During this process, maintaining a swing trading approach is sufficient.
At the same time, BTC's four-year cycle has not yet been broken; the cycle is like a heavy truck driving fast; there will be a transition process from rapid driving to complete stop.
#BTC #ETH
Mark Twain once said: History does not repeat details, but the process is similar
Trends do not overlap, but historical models are roughly similar
Each round of a bull market will not overlap the trends of the previous bull market
The bull market from 2019 to 2021 will not overlap with the one from 2015 to 2017
The period from 2023 to 2025 will also not overlap with the bull market from 2019 to 2021
But the models will be roughly similar
The first batch of investors will layout in advance
The second batch of speculators will buy on the rise
The last batch of ordinary people will buy at high positions
This model will never change
This is the essence of the cyclical cycle.
Mark Twain once said: History does not repeat details, but the process is similar
Trends do not overlap, but historical models are roughly similar
Each round of a bull market will not overlap the trends of the previous bull market
The bull market from 2019 to 2021 will not overlap with the one from 2015 to 2017
The period from 2023 to 2025 will also not overlap with the bull market from 2019 to 2021
But the models will be roughly similar
The first batch of investors will layout in advance
The second batch of speculators will buy on the rise
The last batch of ordinary people will buy at high positions
This model will never change
This is the essence of the cyclical cycle.
#白银 #PAXG
I have never seen a product fluctuate 40% from high to low in a single day. Silver has been memed.
Leveraged positions were almost wiped out overnight.
From AMC's history, the sentiment is completely similar to when AMC peaked.
With such a large market capitalization, silver can fluctuate 40 points in a day. It wouldn't be surprising if Bitcoin also fluctuates 40% in a day in the future.
In the face of sentiment, market capitalization is overlooked.
I have never seen a product fluctuate 40% from high to low in a single day. Silver has been memed.
Leveraged positions were almost wiped out overnight.
From AMC's history, the sentiment is completely similar to when AMC peaked.
With such a large market capitalization, silver can fluctuate 40 points in a day. It wouldn't be surprising if Bitcoin also fluctuates 40% in a day in the future.
In the face of sentiment, market capitalization is overlooked.
#BTC #ETH
A wave of market trends, one transaction, regardless of success or failure, is but a drop in the ocean of your long career, with millions of trades. Do not be elated by a single success, nor be overly distressed by a single failure.
Face each trade's profits and losses calmly, do not have a gambling mentality, do not aspire for overnight wealth, adhere to trading discipline; each stop-loss is the cost of doing business, and each profit is the market's reward for our discipline.
A tranquil heart is always the strongest weapon of a professional trader. When you become impatient, blind, fearful, and anxious due to changes in the market and assets, whether you earn or lose, you have already lost. The waves of the market will infinitely amplify your emotions, leaving you exhausted and delivering a fatal blow.
A wave of market trends, one transaction, regardless of success or failure, is but a drop in the ocean of your long career, with millions of trades. Do not be elated by a single success, nor be overly distressed by a single failure.
Face each trade's profits and losses calmly, do not have a gambling mentality, do not aspire for overnight wealth, adhere to trading discipline; each stop-loss is the cost of doing business, and each profit is the market's reward for our discipline.
A tranquil heart is always the strongest weapon of a professional trader. When you become impatient, blind, fearful, and anxious due to changes in the market and assets, whether you earn or lose, you have already lost. The waves of the market will infinitely amplify your emotions, leaving you exhausted and delivering a fatal blow.
#BTC #ETH
When trading, many people like to listen to various macro news
Are institutions building positions, large transfers in and out on-chain
Interest rates are going to drop, or they are going to rise, how is employment doing
Are insiders and whales increasing their positions long or short again
It sounds like there is a causal relationship
But in reality, it has no necessary connection to your next bet, how much you bet, whether you lose or win
In fact, there is no necessary connection, and it also has no necessary connection to whether you are profitable in the long term
The only good thing is that it provides some psychological comfort, allowing you to shift the blame to not understanding the macro situation well enough.
When trading, many people like to listen to various macro news
Are institutions building positions, large transfers in and out on-chain
Interest rates are going to drop, or they are going to rise, how is employment doing
Are insiders and whales increasing their positions long or short again
It sounds like there is a causal relationship
But in reality, it has no necessary connection to your next bet, how much you bet, whether you lose or win
In fact, there is no necessary connection, and it also has no necessary connection to whether you are profitable in the long term
The only good thing is that it provides some psychological comfort, allowing you to shift the blame to not understanding the macro situation well enough.
#BTC #ETH
The essence of a bull market's madness is the collective psychology reaching a boiling point.
When market sentiment is in an extreme state, prices can surge or plummet even if the fundamentals have not changed.
Enter the market before consensus forms, exit before consensus collapses.
Mean reversion is like the tide; the higher the tide rises, the greater the force of the retreat. The extent of a bear market's decline depends on how high a bull market's rise is.
Stay away from any currencies that deviate too far from the annual line.
The essence of a bull market's madness is the collective psychology reaching a boiling point.
When market sentiment is in an extreme state, prices can surge or plummet even if the fundamentals have not changed.
Enter the market before consensus forms, exit before consensus collapses.
Mean reversion is like the tide; the higher the tide rises, the greater the force of the retreat. The extent of a bear market's decline depends on how high a bull market's rise is.
Stay away from any currencies that deviate too far from the annual line.
#黄金 #白银 #美股
The rebound in silver at the daily level may have already failed.
Purely from a trend-following strategy perspective, silver has long been in a short trend on the 4-hour chart.
If silver rebounds higher, it may enter a good opportunity for shorting at the daily level.
This wave may potentially produce a confirmation signal for a top at the daily level of silver.
My short-term view on the U.S. stock market remains bearish. I have become cautious since the beginning of the New Year in 2026, waiting for a good opportunity.
The rebound in silver at the daily level may have already failed.
Purely from a trend-following strategy perspective, silver has long been in a short trend on the 4-hour chart.
If silver rebounds higher, it may enter a good opportunity for shorting at the daily level.
This wave may potentially produce a confirmation signal for a top at the daily level of silver.
My short-term view on the U.S. stock market remains bearish. I have become cautious since the beginning of the New Year in 2026, waiting for a good opportunity.
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