橙子研究院
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PINNED
Understanding Bitcoin in One Article: Short-term Trading Logic + Medium-term Risks + Long-term Opportunities
Bitcoin's recent decline has been rapid and fierce. The first strong support we anticipated at 69000 was only slightly resisted before being broken. The trend then continuously fell below the second strong support at 63000, plunging to 60000 before rebounding and beginning to stabilize.
69000 This area is the shallow bear position we defined, and we had high hopes for it, but faced with a reality as fragile as paper, we need to update our thoughts on the upcoming market. The trend has formed, the shallow bear is unlikely, and the deep bear has become a reality!
Looking back at 2025, the most common phrase we hear is that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed, but the market in the past few months has given us a loud slap in the face with reality. As we said, the cycle may be weakened, but it will never fail!
69000 This area is the shallow bear position we defined, and we had high hopes for it, but faced with a reality as fragile as paper, we need to update our thoughts on the upcoming market. The trend has formed, the shallow bear is unlikely, and the deep bear has become a reality!
Looking back at 2025, the most common phrase we hear is that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed, but the market in the past few months has given us a loud slap in the face with reality. As we said, the cycle may be weakened, but it will never fail!
PINNED
Annual Line Long Upper Shadow Sets the Tone! Old Retail Investors Analyze Bitcoin's Two Major Bottom Ranges; the Bear Market is No Longer Just a Short-Term Correction
2025 has passed like this, Bitcoin shines brilliantly in 2025, creating new historical highs, but the vast majority of non-Bitcoin varieties are tragically bleak, with many old retail investors wiped out by the bull market. The market draws candlestick patterns in a state that is both familiar and unfamiliar, telling the story of the industry's maturity and transformation!
The annual line of Bitcoin has closed. From the annual line perspective, it has formed a long upper shadow, with a short body and short lower shadow, signifying an end to its strength, and cannot hide its declining trend. The MA7 of the annual line has approached around 57600. Historically, the bottoms of the last two bear markets have both fallen near the MA7 of the annual line, so this position should be marked. If a deep bear market unfolds, this could very well be the bottom range of the major bear market.
The annual line of Bitcoin has closed. From the annual line perspective, it has formed a long upper shadow, with a short body and short lower shadow, signifying an end to its strength, and cannot hide its declining trend. The MA7 of the annual line has approached around 57600. Historically, the bottoms of the last two bear markets have both fallen near the MA7 of the annual line, so this position should be marked. If a deep bear market unfolds, this could very well be the bottom range of the major bear market.
#BTC走势分析
The market is quiet during the New Year, so give yourself a little break. The overall strategy remains the same as the previous days: in the short to medium term, still leaning bullish, first looking for BTC to rebound near 80,000 USD, then choosing the right moment to trade.
There's no need to operate frequently at the current position, continue to hold patiently, and wait for a large bullish candle to confirm the opportunity.
$BTC #CZ币安广场AMA $ETH
The market is quiet during the New Year, so give yourself a little break. The overall strategy remains the same as the previous days: in the short to medium term, still leaning bullish, first looking for BTC to rebound near 80,000 USD, then choosing the right moment to trade.
There's no need to operate frequently at the current position, continue to hold patiently, and wait for a large bullish candle to confirm the opportunity.
$BTC #CZ币安广场AMA $ETH
橙子研究院
·
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Bullish【Daily pullback ongoing: BTC looking at three sell signals, ETH 2400–2600 is a strong resistance zone】
Currently, the rebound is still in the continuation phase, but essentially belongs to the "pullback" structure after a major decline. If the price rebounds close to $80,000, caution should be exercised—this position is prone to forming three sell points after the upper center. Once three sells are established, it does not rule out the possibility of further declines or even new lows, indicating that the trend has not truly strengthened, and operations should focus on making trades.
From the daily structure, after a rapid decline, the market is undergoing an upward correction phase, but it is currently only a rebound segment within the downtrend and has not completed a trend reversal.
As for Ethereum, its trend is weak and synchronized with Bitcoin, with the rebound being more of a correction. Optimistically, the upper target is roughly around $2,600, while the 2400–2600 range is an important resistance zone. If divergence or structural deterioration occurs in this range, risk control should be prioritized.
Operational thought: BTC trades near $80,000, buy back after a pullback.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#ETH $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Currently, the rebound is still in the continuation phase, but essentially belongs to the "pullback" structure after a major decline. If the price rebounds close to $80,000, caution should be exercised—this position is prone to forming three sell points after the upper center. Once three sells are established, it does not rule out the possibility of further declines or even new lows, indicating that the trend has not truly strengthened, and operations should focus on making trades.
From the daily structure, after a rapid decline, the market is undergoing an upward correction phase, but it is currently only a rebound segment within the downtrend and has not completed a trend reversal.
As for Ethereum, its trend is weak and synchronized with Bitcoin, with the rebound being more of a correction. Optimistically, the upper target is roughly around $2,600, while the 2400–2600 range is an important resistance zone. If divergence or structural deterioration occurs in this range, risk control should be prioritized.
Operational thought: BTC trades near $80,000, buy back after a pullback.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#ETH $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
【UNI The real benefit is not the price increase, but being 'used by Wall Street']
Seeing 'BlackRock may buy UNI' counts as a significant benefit
BlackRock putting BUIDL into Uniswap is essentially not about speculating on coins, but about using the blockchain as a settlement system: 24-hour clearing, trustless, global liquidity. This indicates that Uniswap is starting to transition from a 'DeFi project' to 'financial infrastructure', and the logic of UNI is no longer just about governance tokens.
However, this may not necessarily be a signal for a short-term surge; institutions need stability and liquidity, which may lead to a slow bull market instead.
In summary:
The future of UNI is promising!
#UNI $UNI
Seeing 'BlackRock may buy UNI' counts as a significant benefit
BlackRock putting BUIDL into Uniswap is essentially not about speculating on coins, but about using the blockchain as a settlement system: 24-hour clearing, trustless, global liquidity. This indicates that Uniswap is starting to transition from a 'DeFi project' to 'financial infrastructure', and the logic of UNI is no longer just about governance tokens.
However, this may not necessarily be a signal for a short-term surge; institutions need stability and liquidity, which may lead to a slow bull market instead.
In summary:
The future of UNI is promising!
#UNI $UNI
Consistent with yesterday's overall direction:
In the short term, regardless of whether we continue to dive or rebound first, we will execute according to plan.
Consider making a trade around $75,000 during the rebound;
If it continues to decline, just hold patiently, it's a battle of time.
Don't operate easily unless at a critical position, as it's easy to get shaken out;
If it's tough in the short term, endure it and wait for the real moment to start
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #易理华割肉清仓 $ETH
In the short term, regardless of whether we continue to dive or rebound first, we will execute according to plan.
Consider making a trade around $75,000 during the rebound;
If it continues to decline, just hold patiently, it's a battle of time.
Don't operate easily unless at a critical position, as it's easy to get shaken out;
If it's tough in the short term, endure it and wait for the real moment to start
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #易理华割肉清仓 $ETH
橙子研究院
·
--
Bullish【Daily pullback ongoing: BTC looking at three sell signals, ETH 2400–2600 is a strong resistance zone】
Currently, the rebound is still in the continuation phase, but essentially belongs to the "pullback" structure after a major decline. If the price rebounds close to $80,000, caution should be exercised—this position is prone to forming three sell points after the upper center. Once three sells are established, it does not rule out the possibility of further declines or even new lows, indicating that the trend has not truly strengthened, and operations should focus on making trades.
From the daily structure, after a rapid decline, the market is undergoing an upward correction phase, but it is currently only a rebound segment within the downtrend and has not completed a trend reversal.
As for Ethereum, its trend is weak and synchronized with Bitcoin, with the rebound being more of a correction. Optimistically, the upper target is roughly around $2,600, while the 2400–2600 range is an important resistance zone. If divergence or structural deterioration occurs in this range, risk control should be prioritized.
Operational thought: BTC trades near $80,000, buy back after a pullback.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#ETH $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
Currently, the rebound is still in the continuation phase, but essentially belongs to the "pullback" structure after a major decline. If the price rebounds close to $80,000, caution should be exercised—this position is prone to forming three sell points after the upper center. Once three sells are established, it does not rule out the possibility of further declines or even new lows, indicating that the trend has not truly strengthened, and operations should focus on making trades.
From the daily structure, after a rapid decline, the market is undergoing an upward correction phase, but it is currently only a rebound segment within the downtrend and has not completed a trend reversal.
As for Ethereum, its trend is weak and synchronized with Bitcoin, with the rebound being more of a correction. Optimistically, the upper target is roughly around $2,600, while the 2400–2600 range is an important resistance zone. If divergence or structural deterioration occurs in this range, risk control should be prioritized.
Operational thought: BTC trades near $80,000, buy back after a pullback.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#ETH $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
【Daily pullback ongoing: BTC looking at three sell signals, ETH 2400–2600 is a strong resistance zone】
Currently, the rebound is still in the continuation phase, but essentially belongs to the "pullback" structure after a major decline. If the price rebounds close to $80,000, caution should be exercised—this position is prone to forming three sell points after the upper center. Once three sells are established, it does not rule out the possibility of further declines or even new lows, indicating that the trend has not truly strengthened, and operations should focus on making trades.
From the daily structure, after a rapid decline, the market is undergoing an upward correction phase, but it is currently only a rebound segment within the downtrend and has not completed a trend reversal.
As for Ethereum, its trend is weak and synchronized with Bitcoin, with the rebound being more of a correction. Optimistically, the upper target is roughly around $2,600, while the 2400–2600 range is an important resistance zone. If divergence or structural deterioration occurs in this range, risk control should be prioritized.
Operational thought: BTC trades near $80,000, buy back after a pullback.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
#ETH $ETH
Currently, the rebound is still in the continuation phase, but essentially belongs to the "pullback" structure after a major decline. If the price rebounds close to $80,000, caution should be exercised—this position is prone to forming three sell points after the upper center. Once three sells are established, it does not rule out the possibility of further declines or even new lows, indicating that the trend has not truly strengthened, and operations should focus on making trades.
From the daily structure, after a rapid decline, the market is undergoing an upward correction phase, but it is currently only a rebound segment within the downtrend and has not completed a trend reversal.
As for Ethereum, its trend is weak and synchronized with Bitcoin, with the rebound being more of a correction. Optimistically, the upper target is roughly around $2,600, while the 2400–2600 range is an important resistance zone. If divergence or structural deterioration occurs in this range, risk control should be prioritized.
Operational thought: BTC trades near $80,000, buy back after a pullback.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
#ETH $ETH
Thank you for the recognition and support of @币安广场 🙏
A recent market analysis article we published received a 1 BNB reward from Binance Square, and was also recognized as a quality content creator; we were invited to participate in an official live broadcast on January 25. This is not only an encouragement, but also represents the platform's affirmation of our research logic, risk control system, and long-term value output.
We have always insisted on interpreting the market with data, structure, and cycles, rather than emotional calls. Being noticed and recommended by the official multiple times indicates that our content direction and professionalism have been recognized at the platform level.
In the future, we will continue to maintain an objective and rational analysis style, clearly explaining the market and articulating the risks.
Once again, thank you to Binance Square for the opportunity and support; we will provide higher quality content to give back to everyone 📊
#BTC $BTC #bnb $BNB
A recent market analysis article we published received a 1 BNB reward from Binance Square, and was also recognized as a quality content creator; we were invited to participate in an official live broadcast on January 25. This is not only an encouragement, but also represents the platform's affirmation of our research logic, risk control system, and long-term value output.
We have always insisted on interpreting the market with data, structure, and cycles, rather than emotional calls. Being noticed and recommended by the official multiple times indicates that our content direction and professionalism have been recognized at the platform level.
In the future, we will continue to maintain an objective and rational analysis style, clearly explaining the market and articulating the risks.
Once again, thank you to Binance Square for the opportunity and support; we will provide higher quality content to give back to everyone 📊
#BTC $BTC #bnb $BNB
橙子研究院
·
--
Understanding Bitcoin in One Article: Short-term Trading Logic + Medium-term Risks + Long-term Opportunities
Bitcoin's recent decline has been rapid and fierce. The first strong support we anticipated at 69000 was only slightly resisted before being broken. The trend then continuously fell below the second strong support at 63000, plunging to 60000 before rebounding and beginning to stabilize.
69000 This area is the shallow bear position we defined, and we had high hopes for it, but faced with a reality as fragile as paper, we need to update our thoughts on the upcoming market. The trend has formed, the shallow bear is unlikely, and the deep bear has become a reality!
Looking back at 2025, the most common phrase we hear is that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed, but the market in the past few months has given us a loud slap in the face with reality. As we said, the cycle may be weakened, but it will never fail!
69000 This area is the shallow bear position we defined, and we had high hopes for it, but faced with a reality as fragile as paper, we need to update our thoughts on the upcoming market. The trend has formed, the shallow bear is unlikely, and the deep bear has become a reality!
Looking back at 2025, the most common phrase we hear is that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed, but the market in the past few months has given us a loud slap in the face with reality. As we said, the cycle may be weakened, but it will never fail!
#BTC何时反弹？
The short-term approach remains unchanged: first look at the rebound range of $75,000–$80,000, leaning more towards a technical recovery market. If the rebound is in place, the focus is on finding swing opportunities rather than blindly chasing highs.
Combined with the judgments from the last two days, this round is more likely to belong to a rebound after a decline, and a second retest confirmation will likely still occur. Therefore, the operation should mainly focus on selling high and buying low.
The short-term approach remains unchanged: first look at the rebound range of $75,000–$80,000, leaning more towards a technical recovery market. If the rebound is in place, the focus is on finding swing opportunities rather than blindly chasing highs.
Combined with the judgments from the last two days, this round is more likely to belong to a rebound after a decline, and a second retest confirmation will likely still occur. Therefore, the operation should mainly focus on selling high and buying low.
橙子研究院
·
--
Understanding Bitcoin in One Article: Short-term Trading Logic + Medium-term Risks + Long-term Opportunities
Bitcoin's recent decline has been rapid and fierce. The first strong support we anticipated at 69000 was only slightly resisted before being broken. The trend then continuously fell below the second strong support at 63000, plunging to 60000 before rebounding and beginning to stabilize.
69000 This area is the shallow bear position we defined, and we had high hopes for it, but faced with a reality as fragile as paper, we need to update our thoughts on the upcoming market. The trend has formed, the shallow bear is unlikely, and the deep bear has become a reality!
Looking back at 2025, the most common phrase we hear is that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed, but the market in the past few months has given us a loud slap in the face with reality. As we said, the cycle may be weakened, but it will never fail!
69000 This area is the shallow bear position we defined, and we had high hopes for it, but faced with a reality as fragile as paper, we need to update our thoughts on the upcoming market. The trend has formed, the shallow bear is unlikely, and the deep bear has become a reality!
Looking back at 2025, the most common phrase we hear is that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has failed, but the market in the past few months has given us a loud slap in the face with reality. As we said, the cycle may be weakened, but it will never fail!
【Trend Research Liquidation of ETH, the focus is actually not on how much money was lost, but on why it was lost】
On February 8, on-chain data showed that Trend Research, under Yi Li Hua, transferred the last approximately 534 ETH to Binance, basically completing the liquidation; in the last hour, a total of about 31,000 ETH (approximately 65 million USD) was transferred in.
This round of operations was roughly: approximately 3,104 USD for 658,000 ETH → approximately 2,058 USD for liquidation → total loss of approximately 688 million USD.
Many newcomers see it as “institutional failure.”
But as an old player who has been around since 2017, I understand better: this is not simply a directional error, but a mismatch of cycle + leverage + time.
The long-term logic of ETH has not disappeared; the problem lies in —
using short-term funds, even with leverage, to hold long-cycle assets. When the market enters a deleveraging phase, it doesn’t require you to judge incorrectly; as long as you can’t hold on, you must exit.
Many people focus on the liquidation price, thinking that hitting there is the bottom. In fact, the opposite is true:
the exit of large players is often a process of a bear market, not the end of a bear market.
The market keeps repeating:
bull markets kill retail investors, bear markets kill institutions.
The only three points of enlightenment for ordinary people are:
1) Long-term assets should not be matched with short-term funds
2) Spot has cycles, leverage does not have cycles
3) The biggest risk in the market has never been misjudgment, but rather not being able to wait until being right.
#易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 $ETH
#BTC $BTC
On February 8, on-chain data showed that Trend Research, under Yi Li Hua, transferred the last approximately 534 ETH to Binance, basically completing the liquidation; in the last hour, a total of about 31,000 ETH (approximately 65 million USD) was transferred in.
This round of operations was roughly: approximately 3,104 USD for 658,000 ETH → approximately 2,058 USD for liquidation → total loss of approximately 688 million USD.
Many newcomers see it as “institutional failure.”
But as an old player who has been around since 2017, I understand better: this is not simply a directional error, but a mismatch of cycle + leverage + time.
The long-term logic of ETH has not disappeared; the problem lies in —
using short-term funds, even with leverage, to hold long-cycle assets. When the market enters a deleveraging phase, it doesn’t require you to judge incorrectly; as long as you can’t hold on, you must exit.
Many people focus on the liquidation price, thinking that hitting there is the bottom. In fact, the opposite is true:
the exit of large players is often a process of a bear market, not the end of a bear market.
The market keeps repeating:
bull markets kill retail investors, bear markets kill institutions.
The only three points of enlightenment for ordinary people are:
1) Long-term assets should not be matched with short-term funds
2) Spot has cycles, leverage does not have cycles
3) The biggest risk in the market has never been misjudgment, but rather not being able to wait until being right.
#易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 $ETH
#BTC $BTC
【When silver plummeted by 26%, BTC fell below 60,000: This could be an emotional bottom】
This wave is really harsh. BTC once dropped to 60,000 USD, and the bulls were almost completely wiped out.
What's even more exaggerated is silver, which fell from 121 to nearly halved in 5 days, with a maximum single-day drop of 26%, once again proving one thing:
In the financial markets, nothing is impossible.
Currently, it's all about buying, buying, buying. ETH 1936, BTC 65000 has no 🔒 to hold on to, and at the same time, I've allocated to PEPE, HYPE, ZK and other altcoins that I believe in for the long term.
In terms of positions, I have 80% in ETH, and allocated 20% to PEPE at 0.0000036, expecting a rebound space of 50%–100% for BTC and ETH, with some quality altcoins likely to have 1–2 times elasticity.
This round, I've chosen to lie flat and leave it to time; the rest will wait for the market to provide answers.
#BTC何时反弹？ $BTC
#BTC $ETH
This wave is really harsh. BTC once dropped to 60,000 USD, and the bulls were almost completely wiped out.
What's even more exaggerated is silver, which fell from 121 to nearly halved in 5 days, with a maximum single-day drop of 26%, once again proving one thing:
In the financial markets, nothing is impossible.
Currently, it's all about buying, buying, buying. ETH 1936, BTC 65000 has no 🔒 to hold on to, and at the same time, I've allocated to PEPE, HYPE, ZK and other altcoins that I believe in for the long term.
In terms of positions, I have 80% in ETH, and allocated 20% to PEPE at 0.0000036, expecting a rebound space of 50%–100% for BTC and ETH, with some quality altcoins likely to have 1–2 times elasticity.
This round, I've chosen to lie flat and leave it to time; the rest will wait for the market to provide answers.
#BTC何时反弹？ $BTC
#BTC $ETH
橙子研究院
·
--
Bullish【69000—72000 is in place, the big coin only looks at one thing next: rebound height】
Currently, the trend of the big coin has basically reached the target range we predicted long ago. As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2, the core target of this round of decline is concentrated between 69000—72000 US dollars, while BTC is currently around 72500 US dollars and ETH is 2112 US dollars, which is already near a strong support area.
At this position, whether you are stuck in a position or have been observing with a short position, the strategy is simply: buy more as it goes lower, there is no need to panic and cut losses in the spot market. A large-scale rebound is brewing.
Four-hour level prediction:
Comparing the historical trend of the large red circle in the figure, we can see that after experiencing a violent decline, the market often shows a rebound pattern with a similar structure. The rebound is certain; it just requires time and patience for a short-term bottom to form. Referring to the running path of the small circle, the current structure is highly similar, and the subsequent predictions will still follow the main red arrow:
The first target is around 85000 US dollars, and the second target looks towards 100000 US dollars.
Daily level large structure prediction:
From a larger cycle perspective, there are two possibilities:
1️⃣ If the market is still in a strong cycle, after this wave of decline, there is a probability of welcoming a large-scale rise, during which a brief drop below 70000 US dollars cannot be ruled out;
2️⃣ If the trend turns to a very weak structure, the bear market time will be significantly extended, and the real big market may not come until after 2027.
Comprehensive judgment, at this position, at least look for a rebound to around 85000 US dollars first, and then decide further handling of positions based on the strength of the structure after reaching that area.
Position configuration can refer to: 80% ETH, 20% altcoins: PEPE, CHZ, ZK, HYPE, these four can be focused on and the altcoins you are optimistic about.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#ETH $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
#世界杯 $CHZ
{future}(CHZUSDT)
Currently, the trend of the big coin has basically reached the target range we predicted long ago. As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2, the core target of this round of decline is concentrated between 69000—72000 US dollars, while BTC is currently around 72500 US dollars and ETH is 2112 US dollars, which is already near a strong support area.
At this position, whether you are stuck in a position or have been observing with a short position, the strategy is simply: buy more as it goes lower, there is no need to panic and cut losses in the spot market. A large-scale rebound is brewing.
Four-hour level prediction:
Comparing the historical trend of the large red circle in the figure, we can see that after experiencing a violent decline, the market often shows a rebound pattern with a similar structure. The rebound is certain; it just requires time and patience for a short-term bottom to form. Referring to the running path of the small circle, the current structure is highly similar, and the subsequent predictions will still follow the main red arrow:
The first target is around 85000 US dollars, and the second target looks towards 100000 US dollars.
Daily level large structure prediction:
From a larger cycle perspective, there are two possibilities:
1️⃣ If the market is still in a strong cycle, after this wave of decline, there is a probability of welcoming a large-scale rise, during which a brief drop below 70000 US dollars cannot be ruled out;
2️⃣ If the trend turns to a very weak structure, the bear market time will be significantly extended, and the real big market may not come until after 2027.
Comprehensive judgment, at this position, at least look for a rebound to around 85000 US dollars first, and then decide further handling of positions based on the strength of the structure after reaching that area.
Position configuration can refer to: 80% ETH, 20% altcoins: PEPE, CHZ, ZK, HYPE, these four can be focused on and the altcoins you are optimistic about.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#ETH $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
#世界杯 $CHZ
{future}(CHZUSDT)
【 Divergence + Fibonacci resonance, does the Bitcoin rebound target directly point to 85000?】
Let's review the article written on January 2, 2026, which clearly mentioned:
The yearly line level appeared with a long upper shadow, and Bitcoin is likely to enter a medium-term adjustment, with real support only found in a larger range.
So far, the market's evolution path has generally aligned with that judgment at the time, although there are still areas for reflection and optimization in the operational rhythm.
Structurally, BTC has fallen back to the key support area we have repeatedly emphasized:
• Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level
• Near the previous high of the last bull market
Both create a strong support zone concentrated around 69000 USD.
At the same time, from a technical perspective:
• Both large and small cycles show obvious divergence
• The speed of decline is very fast, and the emotional release is sufficient
Such combinations often correspond to high cost-performance rebound speculative zones.
In the short term, extreme emotions are allowed to dip to around 67000, but the real K-line should not effectively fall below this range; otherwise, the structure will change.
Under the current conditions, this position is more suitable for a strategy of buying increasingly lower and staging layouts, rather than emotional liquidation.
From a risk-reward perspective, the risk is controllable, while the space is clear.
Rebound target:
• First target: around 85000 USD
It should be noted that:
The speed of this round of decline is too fast, and from a time dimension, a "shallow bear" has become a low-probability event. The possibility of larger level fluctuations or even a second bottom cannot be ruled out, with the most optimistic extreme position possibly around 63000.
However, this does not affect the current conclusion——
Around 69000 is a rebound speculative area with structure, divergence, and space expectations.
Operationally, one thing is still emphasized:
Being bullish does not equate to going all-in, and layout does not equate to gambling with one's life.
欢迎加入二级市场聊天室
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
#ETH $ETH
#易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 $BNB
Let's review the article written on January 2, 2026, which clearly mentioned:
The yearly line level appeared with a long upper shadow, and Bitcoin is likely to enter a medium-term adjustment, with real support only found in a larger range.
So far, the market's evolution path has generally aligned with that judgment at the time, although there are still areas for reflection and optimization in the operational rhythm.
Structurally, BTC has fallen back to the key support area we have repeatedly emphasized:
• Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level
• Near the previous high of the last bull market
Both create a strong support zone concentrated around 69000 USD.
At the same time, from a technical perspective:
• Both large and small cycles show obvious divergence
• The speed of decline is very fast, and the emotional release is sufficient
Such combinations often correspond to high cost-performance rebound speculative zones.
In the short term, extreme emotions are allowed to dip to around 67000, but the real K-line should not effectively fall below this range; otherwise, the structure will change.
Under the current conditions, this position is more suitable for a strategy of buying increasingly lower and staging layouts, rather than emotional liquidation.
From a risk-reward perspective, the risk is controllable, while the space is clear.
Rebound target:
• First target: around 85000 USD
It should be noted that:
The speed of this round of decline is too fast, and from a time dimension, a "shallow bear" has become a low-probability event. The possibility of larger level fluctuations or even a second bottom cannot be ruled out, with the most optimistic extreme position possibly around 63000.
However, this does not affect the current conclusion——
Around 69000 is a rebound speculative area with structure, divergence, and space expectations.
Operationally, one thing is still emphasized:
Being bullish does not equate to going all-in, and layout does not equate to gambling with one's life.
欢迎加入二级市场聊天室
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
#ETH $ETH
#易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 $BNB
橙子研究院
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Annual Line Long Upper Shadow Sets the Tone! Old Retail Investors Analyze Bitcoin's Two Major Bottom Ranges; the Bear Market is No Longer Just a Short-Term Correction
2025 has passed like this, Bitcoin shines brilliantly in 2025, creating new historical highs, but the vast majority of non-Bitcoin varieties are tragically bleak, with many old retail investors wiped out by the bull market. The market draws candlestick patterns in a state that is both familiar and unfamiliar, telling the story of the industry's maturity and transformation!
The annual line of Bitcoin has closed. From the annual line perspective, it has formed a long upper shadow, with a short body and short lower shadow, signifying an end to its strength, and cannot hide its declining trend. The MA7 of the annual line has approached around 57600. Historically, the bottoms of the last two bear markets have both fallen near the MA7 of the annual line, so this position should be marked. If a deep bear market unfolds, this could very well be the bottom range of the major bear market.
The annual line of Bitcoin has closed. From the annual line perspective, it has formed a long upper shadow, with a short body and short lower shadow, signifying an end to its strength, and cannot hide its declining trend. The MA7 of the annual line has approached around 57600. Historically, the bottoms of the last two bear markets have both fallen near the MA7 of the annual line, so this position should be marked. If a deep bear market unfolds, this could very well be the bottom range of the major bear market.
【The whole network is focused on the liquidation line of Yi Lihua, and the pressure of this round of decline is indeed considerable】
Recently, the market has continued to decline, and the sentiment has gradually evolved from "panic" to "watching for liquidation". The current focus of attention across the network is concentrated on the ETH leveraged positions of Trend Research, a subsidiary of Yi Lihua.
From on-chain and public data:
-Trend Research currently still holds approximately 463,000 ETH
-The average holding price is approximately $3180
-The scale of leveraged borrowing is approximately $625 million
-The cumulative loss is approximately $647 million (of which realized losses are $173 million, and unrealized losses are approximately $474 million)
To cope with risks, Trend Research has recently reduced its holdings by approximately 188,500 ETH at an average price of about $2263 and repaid $385 million USDT, successfully lowering the liquidation price.
Currently, the liquidation range of its multiple ETH lending positions has dropped to $1576–$1682, with the core liquidation concentration around $1640. It is precisely because of the existence of this position that the market's short-term downward expectation for ETH and even the entire cryptocurrency market has significantly increased.
In this context, the decline of BTC and ETH is no longer just a technical issue, but rather a result of leverage structure + emotional resonance.
To be honest, this round of decline has really made people's scalps tingle; I have already chosen to hold a full position in spot and lie flat, no longer watching the market in the short term, waiting for emotions to clear and the structure to finish before saying anything. Watching the market now will only increase anxiety.
Such a level of market situation can no longer be endured by emotions; it can only be left to time.
Let's take a break and wait for the market to provide answers.
#易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 $BTC
#BTC $ETH
#ETH $BNB
Recently, the market has continued to decline, and the sentiment has gradually evolved from "panic" to "watching for liquidation". The current focus of attention across the network is concentrated on the ETH leveraged positions of Trend Research, a subsidiary of Yi Lihua.
From on-chain and public data:
-Trend Research currently still holds approximately 463,000 ETH
-The average holding price is approximately $3180
-The scale of leveraged borrowing is approximately $625 million
-The cumulative loss is approximately $647 million (of which realized losses are $173 million, and unrealized losses are approximately $474 million)
To cope with risks, Trend Research has recently reduced its holdings by approximately 188,500 ETH at an average price of about $2263 and repaid $385 million USDT, successfully lowering the liquidation price.
Currently, the liquidation range of its multiple ETH lending positions has dropped to $1576–$1682, with the core liquidation concentration around $1640. It is precisely because of the existence of this position that the market's short-term downward expectation for ETH and even the entire cryptocurrency market has significantly increased.
In this context, the decline of BTC and ETH is no longer just a technical issue, but rather a result of leverage structure + emotional resonance.
To be honest, this round of decline has really made people's scalps tingle; I have already chosen to hold a full position in spot and lie flat, no longer watching the market in the short term, waiting for emotions to clear and the structure to finish before saying anything. Watching the market now will only increase anxiety.
Such a level of market situation can no longer be endured by emotions; it can only be left to time.
Let's take a break and wait for the market to provide answers.
#易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 $BTC
#BTC $ETH
#ETH $BNB
橙子研究院
·
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Bullish【69000—72000 is in place, the big coin only looks at one thing next: rebound height】
Currently, the trend of the big coin has basically reached the target range we predicted long ago. As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2, the core target of this round of decline is concentrated between 69000—72000 US dollars, while BTC is currently around 72500 US dollars and ETH is 2112 US dollars, which is already near a strong support area.
At this position, whether you are stuck in a position or have been observing with a short position, the strategy is simply: buy more as it goes lower, there is no need to panic and cut losses in the spot market. A large-scale rebound is brewing.
Four-hour level prediction:
Comparing the historical trend of the large red circle in the figure, we can see that after experiencing a violent decline, the market often shows a rebound pattern with a similar structure. The rebound is certain; it just requires time and patience for a short-term bottom to form. Referring to the running path of the small circle, the current structure is highly similar, and the subsequent predictions will still follow the main red arrow:
The first target is around 85000 US dollars, and the second target looks towards 100000 US dollars.
Daily level large structure prediction:
From a larger cycle perspective, there are two possibilities:
1️⃣ If the market is still in a strong cycle, after this wave of decline, there is a probability of welcoming a large-scale rise, during which a brief drop below 70000 US dollars cannot be ruled out;
2️⃣ If the trend turns to a very weak structure, the bear market time will be significantly extended, and the real big market may not come until after 2027.
Comprehensive judgment, at this position, at least look for a rebound to around 85000 US dollars first, and then decide further handling of positions based on the strength of the structure after reaching that area.
Position configuration can refer to: 80% ETH, 20% altcoins: PEPE, CHZ, ZK, HYPE, these four can be focused on and the altcoins you are optimistic about.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#ETH $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
#世界杯 $CHZ
{future}(CHZUSDT)
Currently, the trend of the big coin has basically reached the target range we predicted long ago. As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2, the core target of this round of decline is concentrated between 69000—72000 US dollars, while BTC is currently around 72500 US dollars and ETH is 2112 US dollars, which is already near a strong support area.
At this position, whether you are stuck in a position or have been observing with a short position, the strategy is simply: buy more as it goes lower, there is no need to panic and cut losses in the spot market. A large-scale rebound is brewing.
Four-hour level prediction:
Comparing the historical trend of the large red circle in the figure, we can see that after experiencing a violent decline, the market often shows a rebound pattern with a similar structure. The rebound is certain; it just requires time and patience for a short-term bottom to form. Referring to the running path of the small circle, the current structure is highly similar, and the subsequent predictions will still follow the main red arrow:
The first target is around 85000 US dollars, and the second target looks towards 100000 US dollars.
Daily level large structure prediction:
From a larger cycle perspective, there are two possibilities:
1️⃣ If the market is still in a strong cycle, after this wave of decline, there is a probability of welcoming a large-scale rise, during which a brief drop below 70000 US dollars cannot be ruled out;
2️⃣ If the trend turns to a very weak structure, the bear market time will be significantly extended, and the real big market may not come until after 2027.
Comprehensive judgment, at this position, at least look for a rebound to around 85000 US dollars first, and then decide further handling of positions based on the strength of the structure after reaching that area.
Position configuration can refer to: 80% ETH, 20% altcoins: PEPE, CHZ, ZK, HYPE, these four can be focused on and the altcoins you are optimistic about.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
{future}(BTCUSDT)
#ETH $ETH
{future}(ETHUSDT)
#世界杯 $CHZ
{future}(CHZUSDT)
【69000—72000 is in place, the big coin only looks at one thing next: rebound height】
Currently, the trend of the big coin has basically reached the target range we predicted long ago. As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2, the core target of this round of decline is concentrated between 69000—72000 US dollars, while BTC is currently around 72500 US dollars and ETH is 2112 US dollars, which is already near a strong support area.
At this position, whether you are stuck in a position or have been observing with a short position, the strategy is simply: buy more as it goes lower, there is no need to panic and cut losses in the spot market. A large-scale rebound is brewing.
Four-hour level prediction:
Comparing the historical trend of the large red circle in the figure, we can see that after experiencing a violent decline, the market often shows a rebound pattern with a similar structure. The rebound is certain; it just requires time and patience for a short-term bottom to form. Referring to the running path of the small circle, the current structure is highly similar, and the subsequent predictions will still follow the main red arrow:
The first target is around 85000 US dollars, and the second target looks towards 100000 US dollars.
Daily level large structure prediction:
From a larger cycle perspective, there are two possibilities:
1️⃣ If the market is still in a strong cycle, after this wave of decline, there is a probability of welcoming a large-scale rise, during which a brief drop below 70000 US dollars cannot be ruled out;
2️⃣ If the trend turns to a very weak structure, the bear market time will be significantly extended, and the real big market may not come until after 2027.
Comprehensive judgment, at this position, at least look for a rebound to around 85000 US dollars first, and then decide further handling of positions based on the strength of the structure after reaching that area.
Position configuration can refer to: 80% ETH, 20% altcoins: PEPE, CHZ, ZK, HYPE, these four can be focused on and the altcoins you are optimistic about.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
#ETH $ETH
#世界杯 $CHZ
Currently, the trend of the big coin has basically reached the target range we predicted long ago. As shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2, the core target of this round of decline is concentrated between 69000—72000 US dollars, while BTC is currently around 72500 US dollars and ETH is 2112 US dollars, which is already near a strong support area.
At this position, whether you are stuck in a position or have been observing with a short position, the strategy is simply: buy more as it goes lower, there is no need to panic and cut losses in the spot market. A large-scale rebound is brewing.
Four-hour level prediction:
Comparing the historical trend of the large red circle in the figure, we can see that after experiencing a violent decline, the market often shows a rebound pattern with a similar structure. The rebound is certain; it just requires time and patience for a short-term bottom to form. Referring to the running path of the small circle, the current structure is highly similar, and the subsequent predictions will still follow the main red arrow:
The first target is around 85000 US dollars, and the second target looks towards 100000 US dollars.
Daily level large structure prediction:
From a larger cycle perspective, there are two possibilities:
1️⃣ If the market is still in a strong cycle, after this wave of decline, there is a probability of welcoming a large-scale rise, during which a brief drop below 70000 US dollars cannot be ruled out;
2️⃣ If the trend turns to a very weak structure, the bear market time will be significantly extended, and the real big market may not come until after 2027.
Comprehensive judgment, at this position, at least look for a rebound to around 85000 US dollars first, and then decide further handling of positions based on the strength of the structure after reaching that area.
Position configuration can refer to: 80% ETH, 20% altcoins: PEPE, CHZ, ZK, HYPE, these four can be focused on and the altcoins you are optimistic about.
#BTC走势分析 $BTC
#ETH $ETH
#世界杯 $CHZ
[Computing Power, Scarcer than Bitcoin? DePIN+AI is Reconstructing the Global Computing Power Landscape]
Now there's an unavoidable term in the global tech circle—computing power. Giants like OpenAI and Google used to compete for GPUs, and now they are competing for high-end memory, spending money as if it were free. In the crypto circle, a revolution around 'reconstructing computing power' has already begun, which is what we are going to discuss today—DePIN+AI computing power aggregation track. Simply put, this is a decentralized way to gather the idle GPU computing power from around the world and sell it to AI companies and game manufacturers in need, addressing the pain points of computing power scarcity and high costs while providing new opportunities for ordinary people. Today, we will delve into this track and focus on analyzing the two leading companies, Render and io.net, using concrete data and case studies to speak.
【85000 Do T, 70000 Add Position: This is the plan, not to comfort oneself】
Based on yesterday's structural analysis, the current operational thinking has adjusted, but the core logic remains unchanged.
In the current volatile environment, the price is not significantly moving, making the cost-effectiveness of doing T relatively low, as the space is too small and can easily be rejected. Considering the overall profit-loss ratio, there are two more reasonable response plans:
First, if the rebound reaches around 85000 USD and the price range is opened, consider doing T to reduce costs;
Second, if the market continues to drop to around 70000 USD, we will consider filling the position to full capacity to achieve a lower overall holding cost.
Currently, the community is at 60-70% position, and since we are short-term trapped, we must approach it from the perspective of cycles and profit-loss ratios, rather than emotional trading.
From a broader cycle perspective, we still judge that the 70000 range has a strong rebound foundation, with a rebound expectation to around 100000 USD.
This round of decline, combined with the synchronous crash of gold and silver, has clearly been accelerated by external forces. Since it has already happened, the remaining question is how to respond.
There is no need to be discouraged by short-term losses; real opportunities often arise when emotions are at their lowest.
Currently, from the short-term market perspective, the trading volume has increased significantly, panic selling has emerged, and there are divergences and resonances at multiple levels. The probability of dropping below 70000 in a short time is low, so consider operating based on the situation if it rebounds to 85000 USD. Pay attention to our post 欢迎加入二级市场聊天
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
#Crypto Market Adjustment
Based on yesterday's structural analysis, the current operational thinking has adjusted, but the core logic remains unchanged.
In the current volatile environment, the price is not significantly moving, making the cost-effectiveness of doing T relatively low, as the space is too small and can easily be rejected. Considering the overall profit-loss ratio, there are two more reasonable response plans:
First, if the rebound reaches around 85000 USD and the price range is opened, consider doing T to reduce costs;
Second, if the market continues to drop to around 70000 USD, we will consider filling the position to full capacity to achieve a lower overall holding cost.
Currently, the community is at 60-70% position, and since we are short-term trapped, we must approach it from the perspective of cycles and profit-loss ratios, rather than emotional trading.
From a broader cycle perspective, we still judge that the 70000 range has a strong rebound foundation, with a rebound expectation to around 100000 USD.
This round of decline, combined with the synchronous crash of gold and silver, has clearly been accelerated by external forces. Since it has already happened, the remaining question is how to respond.
There is no need to be discouraged by short-term losses; real opportunities often arise when emotions are at their lowest.
Currently, from the short-term market perspective, the trading volume has increased significantly, panic selling has emerged, and there are divergences and resonances at multiple levels. The probability of dropping below 70000 in a short time is low, so consider operating based on the situation if it rebounds to 85000 USD. Pay attention to our post 欢迎加入二级市场聊天
#BTC走势分析 $BTC #ETH $ETH
#Crypto Market Adjustment
橙子研究院
·
--
【Viewpoint remains unchanged｜Market is still validating yesterday's judgment】
Today's trend has not changed; it essentially continues the expectations from yesterday.
BTC is still in a weak rebound phase within a downtrend, with the rebound not gaining volume, and the overall thinking remains unchanged.
The short-term key resistance remains at 80000–81000 USD. Given the current environment, it is quite difficult to effectively stabilize; if the rebound is weak, a further pullback cannot be ruled out, with initial support at 75000. Larger level support is still in the 69000–70000 range.
In terms of operations, do not chase the rise; treat the rebound as an opportunity to do T and reduce costs.
The community's overall position maintains 60–70% in spot, without leverage or contracts.
In summary:
Continue to wait for opportunities, monitoring the situations around 80,000 or 70,000 for potential actions.
#BTC何时反弹？ $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH
Today's trend has not changed; it essentially continues the expectations from yesterday.
BTC is still in a weak rebound phase within a downtrend, with the rebound not gaining volume, and the overall thinking remains unchanged.
The short-term key resistance remains at 80000–81000 USD. Given the current environment, it is quite difficult to effectively stabilize; if the rebound is weak, a further pullback cannot be ruled out, with initial support at 75000. Larger level support is still in the 69000–70000 range.
In terms of operations, do not chase the rise; treat the rebound as an opportunity to do T and reduce costs.
The community's overall position maintains 60–70% in spot, without leverage or contracts.
In summary:
Continue to wait for opportunities, monitoring the situations around 80,000 or 70,000 for potential actions.
#BTC何时反弹？ $BTC #BTC走势分析 $ETH
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