CryptoScenarios

Bitcoin: weekly structure remains under pressure
In the weekly chart, $BTC maintains a fragile technical structure, despite the recent bounce from the lows.
The price continues below key levels, while the higher time frame distribution pattern remains active. This type of formation does not define timing, but it does help to understand what scenarios remain open if demand fails to recover lost areas.
📊 The chart shows:
- Weekly structure still weakened
- Bounces that have not changed the main trend
- Areas where historically the market demands real confirmation
📌 This is not a price projection or an investment recommendation, but rather a reading of the structure:
in higher frames, the market is still resolving whether the recent movement is accumulation… or just a bounce within a larger correction.
At this point, the price reaction matters more than the price itself.

Market in selective mode: what the flow shows in 4H
After the volatility of recent days, the crypto market enters a more tactical phase. $BTC continues without a clear direction and, in that context, the flow becomes more selective, especially in perpetual contracts.
The screener that accompanies this post seeks to identify controlled movements in a 4H timeframe, typical of consolidation scenarios or technical bounces within still fragile structures:
- Market: Perpetuals (Binance)
- Timeframe: 4H
- Change 4H: between 0.5% and 4%
- Price: below the SMA 200 (weak bottom structure)
- Price: oscillating between SMA 20 and SMA 50
- Volume: in relative expansion
The result does not point to “strong” assets, but to areas where the market continues to operate liquidity, even without a defined trend. This type of behavior tends to appear when capital reduces directional exposure and favors short and technical movements.
This is not an operational signal nor a trading recommendation. It is a reading of microstructure: when the market stops rewarding broad momentum, risk management and selectivity begin to stand out.
In this environment, rather than anticipating directions, it is advisable to observe where there continues to be interest and participation, and where the market simply turns off.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently at 30 (Fear), reflecting a market that remains cautious after the liquidations and high volatility of recent days, but without clear signs of extreme panic.
The indicator shows a scenario with nuances. Volatility and dominance remain in the fear zone, while price, volume, and technicals continue to be pressured. In parallel, whales and the order book reflect a more defensive stance. In contrast, the social component and searches continue to show some optimism bias.
This crossing of signals often appears in divided markets: larger capital reduces risk, while retail interest has not entirely disappeared.
Historically, readings between 20 and 39 do not typically mark an immediate bottom, but they do occur in phases where the market begins to absorb the excess selling and seek some equilibrium.
For now, more than anticipating a bounce, the focus is on whether this level of fear can dissipate without new macroeconomic shocks.
$BTC
$ETH
#FearAndGreed #CryptoMarket #Sentiment

🟠 Bitcoin rebounds after a week of high tension
$BTC regained ground up to the $78,000 zone on February 3rd, after falling below $80,000 for the first time since April. Still, the price has accumulated a correction close to 37% since the October peak, in a context marked by strong risk aversion.
The drop triggered more than $2.5 billion in liquidations, reflecting a process of adjustment and reduction of leverage after weeks of high volatility.
$ETH showed a technical rebound close to 5%, trading around $2,290, after an especially weak January (-24%). $SOL also advanced close to 3%, although the performance of altcoins remains fragile.
📊 A key data point: Bitcoin's dominance is back around 60%, delaying for now any solid narrative of "altseason."
The movement is not limited to the crypto ecosystem. The recent correction in gold and silver generated a cascading effect on risk assets, including crypto-linked stocks like MicroStrategy, Coinbase, and Robinhood, which fell between 3% and 7%.
Analysts agree that the current scenario responds more to a process of organic deleveraging than to a structural crisis. The market adjusts expectations… and tests patience.
#Bitcoin #CryptoMarkets #Ethereum #Macro #MarketUpdate

📊 Relative strength in action: Who leads while Bitcoin consolidates?
In sessions where Bitcoin remains sideways and the market continues to digest recent volatility, assets that advance with their own dynamics begin to stand out.
To identify them, I used a simple technical screener, focused on detecting real relative strength, beyond short-term noise:
- Timeframe: daily (1D)
- 24h Change: greater than 10%
- Price: above SMA 20 and SMA 50
- Relative volume: greater than 1.5
The result is what is observed in the image: coins that are leading in performance, even without a clear push from Bitcoin.
📌 This does not constitute an investment recommendation, but rather a reading of market behavior. When capital begins to discriminate, relative strength is often one of the first signals to appear.
In contexts of high dispersion, observing which assets resist or advance on their own can provide as much information as looking at the overall index.
👉 If you are following the market in this segment, it is worth reviewing these dynamics and seeing which coins continue to show relative strength, even in uncertain environments.

💵 Stronger dollar, extra pressure on crypto
The dollar strengthened by about 1% after the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed, especially against commodity-linked currencies.
A stronger dollar usually weighs on USD-denominated assets, like Bitcoin and metals, by reducing their appeal to international buyers.
📌 It's not an isolated shock:
it's the same macro thread that has been driving the market in recent days.
Crypto continues to react to liquidity, rates, and the dollar.
$BTC #Dollar #Macro #CryptoMarket

🏦 Appointment at the Fed weighs on crypto
The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next president of the Federal Reserve led markets to recalibrate expectations regarding interest rates and liquidity.
Warsh is known for his tougher stance on inflation and his emphasis on Fed balance sheet discipline, an approach that historically reduces the appeal of speculative assets that depend on abundant liquidity.
In this context, the crypto market reacted negatively once again. Bitcoin and Ethereum responded with moderate declines, reflecting a scenario where rate cuts might take longer than expected.
📌 More than a one-off move, the market message is clear: the macro narrative has once again dominated the short term in crypto.
$BTC $ETH #Macro #Fed #CryptoMarket

🗓️ Start of the week in crypto: where we are
Last week was complex for the crypto market. Bitcoin touched the zone of $76,000, amid liquidations of more than $2.5 billion and a drop close to 7% in the total market capitalization in just 24 hours.
The main movements:
- BTC accumulates close to -10% for the year, with lower risk appetite
- ETH fell more than 17% in January, losing the level of $2,500
- The adjustment was marked by excess leverage and macro pressure
As the week begins, $BTC attempts to stabilize between $78,000–80,000, while $ETH remains above $2,400. There are rebounds, but the market remains fragile and attentive to global liquidity.
📌 This week will be key to see if the market finds equilibrium… or if volatility continues to dominate.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoMarket

💥 $1.7B in liquidations and extreme fear in crypto
In 24h:
• $1.7 billion liquidated
• 270,000+ traders expelled
• 90% were long positions
• $BTC and $ETH at 2-month lows
• Market cap -6%
👉 This is not a normal drop.
The Fear & Greed index falls to 16 → extreme fear.
Level that historically appears in capitulations.
Panic… or necessary cleanup?
#CryptoCrash #Liquidations

💵 The dollar rebounds and crypto feels it
The USD rises after rumors that Trump would soon announce a new Fed chair.
The markets interpret the movement as a signal of tighter policy.
Strong dollar = pressure on risk assets.
📉 $BTC drops to ~$82K
📉 $ETH loses ~3%
Cryptos continue to react to the same macro flow that moves bonds and FX.
Do you see this as macro noise… or a regime change?
#CryptoMacro

📉 Crypto enters risk-off mode
$BTC drops ~2% to $82.6K after the Fed maintains rates at 4.25%–4.50%. Powell was clear: cuts before 2026 seem unlikely.
Added to geopolitical tension → capital leaving risk assets.
Key movements:
• $ETH drops ~3% to $2,735 and loses the psychological level of $3,000
• $XRP drops ~3% to $1.75, breaking support at $1.85 (stops get triggered)
• $SOL drops ~1.5% to $115.9, showing relative strength vs the rest
• Total market cap falls to ~$3.06T and 90/100 top coins in red
• BTC spot ETFs record net outflows (institutional demand is cooler)
Do you see this as a cleaning of leverage… or the start of a more defensive phase?
#CryptoMarket #Macro

🏦 Binance moves in Europe: applies for MiCA license from Greece
Binance established a subsidiary in Greece and is advancing to operate under the EU's MiCA regulatory framework.
📌 Why does it matter?
• Regulatory normalization of the sector
• Institutional gateway to Europe
• Binance betting on clear rules, not gray areas
In a cycle where regulation defines winners, positioning first is a strategic advantage.
Greece becomes a key point for regulated crypto expansion in the EU.
Will Europe be the new institutional hub of the ecosystem?
$BNB #Binance #MiCA #CryptoRegulation

🤖 Ethereum launches ERC-8004: the standard for AI agents on blockchain
Ethereum is implementing a new standard that allows AI agents to have:
• Portable identity
• Verifiable reputation
• On-chain validation
Each agent functions as a “digital passport” in the form of an NFT.
📌 Why does it matter?
This creates a global market where AI agents can interact, pay, and coordinate without intermediaries.
AI + blockchain → native infrastructure for machine-to-machine economy.
Analysts believe that ERC-8004 + micropayments (x402) could lay the foundation for autonomous trade among agents.
It's not just a technical upgrade.
It's Ethereum positioning itself as the base layer of the AI economy.
Are we witnessing the beginning of the Web of agents?
$ETH #Ethereum #AI #CryptoInfrastructure

📊 Is Bitcoin following the legendary pattern of Jesse Livermore?
Some traders believe that BTC is replicating the classic psychological cycle:
accumulation → breakout → speculative expansion.
According to this reading, the market is approaching the most explosive phase of the cycle.
Others warn:
Bitcoin is not a stock from 1920 — ETF, halving, and global macro are changing the game.
📌 The pattern does not predict prices.
It reflects collective psychology.
Are we before the expansion… or forcing the fit?
$BTC #Bitcoin #TradingPsychology

Capitulation or extreme conviction in $ETH ?
A whale began to partially close its enormous long position in Ethereum, which raised alarms of capitulation.
However, hours later it added exposure again, maintaining nearly $600M in ETH, in addition to relevant positions in $BTC and $SOL .
📉 The PnL remains in the red, but the bias does not change.
🤔 Informed conviction… or simply trapped in its thesis?
#ETH #BTC #Whales

📊 What does the market expect for $BTC , $ETH , and $XRP in February?
In Polymarket, traders are betting on a consolidation scenario, not on extreme movements:
• $BTC : most probable range 88k–90k
• $ETH : consensus between 2,800–3,100
• $XRP : stabilization at 1.80–2.00
📌 Caution predominates in the short term.
🤔 Do you agree with the market or do you expect a breakout first?
#BTC #ETH #XRP

📈 $BTC rebounds while the dollar hits nearly 4-year lows
Bitcoin rises close to +2.3% in a context of a weakening dollar following Trump's comments about letting it "float."
This environment reinforces the narrative of debasement trade and enhances the appeal of alternative assets.
🤔 Is it just a technical rebound or is the market starting to react to the weak dollar?
$BTC $ETH #CryptoMacro

🏦 BlackRock presents a Bitcoin income ETF
BlackRock filed an S-1 to launch the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF, a product that aims to:
▪️ Track the price of $BTC
▪️ Generate income by selling call options on its IBIT ETF
📌 What does this mean for the market?
• More systematic selling of volatility
• Possible downward pressure on option premiums
• Less participation in strong price increases
It is not necessarily bearish for BTC, but it does indicate greater institutionalization and sophistication of the market.

📊 XRP in a key zone: what is a triple bottom?
The price of $XRP has touched the same support zone three times without breaking it, forming what is known in technical analysis as a triple bottom.
This pattern is often interpreted as seller exhaustion, but it requires confirmation: breaking resistances and increasing volume.
For now, XRP is moving near the 1.80–1.90 USD, in a balance zone between buyers and sellers.
👀 Do you think there will be bullish confirmation or more consolidation?