I have been in crypto since 2016, on Binance since 2021. I love cryptocurrencies. I'm also an artist and a designer. Trading is my first love! BTC is Love
Bitcoin has just gone through a sharp postâparabolic correction, sliding from the euphoric highs and breaking below key levels like 80k. This move looks brutal on the chart, but structurally it still fits the pattern of a classic crypto shakeâout after a huge run.
**Why BTC is falling**
- Macro riskâoff: Global risk sentiment has turned cautious, and highâbeta assets like BTC are usually first in line when investors deârisk. - ETF outflows: Spot BTC ETFs, which were a big driver on the way up, have started to see outflows, forcing selling of spot coins and removing a key demand engine. - Leverage washout: Derivatives positioning was heavily skewed long, so once key supports broke, a wave of liquidations accelerated the downside. - Technical breakdown: Losing the 84â85k area and then 80k flipped former support into resistance and triggered stopâloss cascades.
**Key technical levels Iâm watching**
- Shortâterm resistance: - 80â83k: First band BTC must reclaim to even start repairing the chart. - 87â90k: Major resistance; reclaiming and holding above here would signal a serious trend recovery, not just a deadâcat bounce.
- Support zones: - 71k: First âline in the sandâ for bulls; holding above here keeps the mediumâterm structure intact. - 64k: Next strong demand area if 71k fails. - Below 64k: Opens the door to a deeper flush towards older breakout regions.
Momentum indicators on the higher timeframes are still pointing down, with no clean bullish divergence yet, which suggests sellers remain in control for now.
**Is this the bottom?**
No one can time the exact bottom, and treating any single price as âtheâ level is dangerous. A more realistic way to think about it:
- This drop is likely part of a broader bottoming *zone*, not necessarily the final wick.
Adding positions is really a matter of luck. Ideally, you keep adding when there's unrealized profit, but what actually happens? Most of the time, you're forced to add when you're at a floating loss. Opportunities to add when in profit are painfully rare.
The most heartbreaking part is the market trend: when it rises, it just keeps going up endlessly, rising for six or seven days without a break. Conversely, when it falls, itâs just as stubbornâthere's no decent rebound when it drops, it's entirely a one-sided market.
$BTC $ETH $SOL These mainstream coins can't escape this pattern either; their volatility is so great that it catches people off guard.
Jerome Powellâs term as Federal Reserve Chair ends in May 2026, and the race to succeed him is a significant macroeconomic story. Several candidates, each with distinct monetary policy philosophies, are being discussed. The Fedâs leadership is crucial given ongoing inflation pressures, slowing growth indicators, and market sensitivity to policy moves.
Potential frontrunners include:
Kevin Hassett, a White House economic adviser, known for his dovish views and advocating significant rate cuts.
Christopher Waller, a Fed governor with a more technocratic reputation, supporting cautious rate cuts when data allows.
Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor, historically hawkish but showing flexibility in response to growth concerns.
Other potential candidates are governors like Michelle Bowman or James Bullard, with varying hawkish/dovish leanings.
Favored Candidate: Christopher Waller (Most Balanced & Pragmatic)
If I had to choose one candidate whose stance best fits the current macro backdrop, it would be Christopher Waller. He is data-driven, open to measured rate cuts as the economy slows, yet willing to act against inflation if it accelerates. His track record shows flexibilityâsupporting tightening during inflation spikes and easing cautiously when conditions soften. This approach helps preserve Fed credibility on inflation while addressing weakening growth signals. In the current environmentâinflation above target in certain sectors, a softening labor market, and persistent market volatilityâthis balance is critical.
Alternative Candidate: Kevin Hassett (Dovish, Growth-Focused)
Pros: Aggressive rate cuts could boost growth and liquidity, lifting equities, risk assets, and crypto in the short term. It could provide an initial confidence boost to markets if investors perceive easier money as a floor for growth.
Cons: Political alignment raises concerns about Fed independence and long-term inflation credibility. If inflation accelerates while policy remains loose, long-term bond yields could spike, and equities could face volatility after initial optimism.
Kevin Warsh & Other Candidates (Complex/Mixed Impact)
Warsh historically leans hawkish, but recent conditions may push him toward pragmatic easing. His approach could provide credibility with moderate flexibility, balancing inflation expectations and growth. Markets might react neutrally, favoring predictability over extremes.
$NIGHT is in a strong downtrend with possible oversold rebound signals, but with elevated volatility and weak confirmation, any medium-term holding comes with higher risk. Caution is key if considering a 6-month position.
đ Key Technicals - Current Price: 0.091 USDT - Major Support: 0.090 USDT - Major Resistance: 0.100 USDT - 24h Change: -1.25% - Volatility (24h): -8.1% - Fear & Greed Index: 29 (Fear) - Volume Trend: Decreasing
đŠ Professional Take
- **Trend:** Strong bearish momentum on all short-term timeframes. Daily RSI indicates oversold (potential for a technical bounce, but no clear uptrend confirmed yet). - **Sentiment:** Overall fearful market, little bullish voice in the crowd. - **Volume:** Both price and volume have droppedâthis is a caution signal, as rebounds from low volume often lack conviction.
đ Entry/Exit & Confidence (NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE; for educational illustration)
**Possible Entry Zone:** 0.090â0.092 USDT (if looking for a technical rebound; conservative sizing is crucial) - **Exit/First Target:** 0.100â0.105 USDT - **Stop-Loss Reference:** Below 0.089 USDT (tight, to cap downside risk) - **Confidence Level:** Low-to-moderate. The market needs further confirmation of trend reversal before any confident medium-term positioning.
đš Artistic Bottom Line
Like a pale moon trying to break through the clouds, $NIGHT could see a technical relief bounce. However, with prevailing market fear and no strong positive signals, any 6-month holding faces above-average risk. Tight risk management, small position sizing, and patience for a confirmed trend are advised if you wish to dip a toe in.