Crypto AnalyZen

As you know, $TSLA (Tesla)
{future}(TSLAUSDT)
stock futures are now tradable on Binance. First comes the stock, then the futures.

So to analyze Tesla properly, I started with the Tesla stock chart on NASDAQ.
Before entering any market, I always start with the annual timeframe.

• 2020–2021: Rapid growth

• 2022: Deep correction

• 2023: A mid-low formed at 101.81, and a gap appeared between the 2023 low and the 2019 high. However, judging by the structure, I don’t expect this gap to be tested anytime soon.

• 2023–2024–2025: Three consecutive years of growth with long lower wicks — a sign of strong demand (more on this on the monthly chart).
To project potential upside, I measured the correction range from the 2021 high → 2023 low and extended it upward.

📌 Probable continuation targets: 570 and 727.
We can also note that 2026 opened with a gap between the 2025 close and the 2026 open. This gap was filled in the first month.

At the same time, 2026 opening level already at 25% Fibonacci of the upper tail of the 2025 candlestick indicate a high probability of a downward phase first — followed by a continuation higher.
🔸 Key Levels from the 2025 Candle
I measured the long lower wick of the 2025 annual candle using Fibonacci to define optimal entry zones.
📌 The 50% Fibonacci level = 303.04 is especially important:
• Slightly above the 2023 high
• Also aligns with the 50% retracement of the entire 2023–2025 uptrend
This level confluence increases the probability of price revisiting this area.

🔹 Monthly Structure
On the monthly chart, Tesla has maintained a bullish structure for three years:
✔ Higher highs
✔ Higher lows
A third wave is now forming.

Given the depth of previous corrections, this wave is likely to show strong momentum with only shallow pullbacks at the start.
🧭 My Plan / Areas of Interest
If a correction plays out before the next upside leg, I’m watching these zones:
• 367.71 – 382.78 → Gap between May 2025 high & Nov 2025 low
• 352.26 → 2021 close
• 346 → Lower boundary of a broader gap
• 299.29 → 2023 high
• 303.04 → 50% Fib of both structures (key confluence)
🎯 Strategy
If price corrects into these zones first:
• I’ll open small positions
• Average entries
• And become more aggressive only if price moves below the 50% Fib of the entire range

This is the Bitcoin Situation for the Next 3 Years

Since last August I warned that the $108,000 level could not be lost in Bitcoin or else we entered a bearish cycle and it was going to be hard.

I am not a guru nor do I have a crystal ball.

But I try to get informed and I dedicate a lot of time to understanding what a Halving is. I understand mining costs. I understand staking. I understand leverage.

But above all we need to understand how all this leads us to CYCLES.

This chart is very powerful for understanding Bitcoin.

Each line is a cycle since its Halving. This event happens every 4 years.

The first cycle (the blue one) made the high somewhat earlier but the following cycles have made their highs at the same moment. All the lows have happened one year after reaching this high.

This last cycle (the strong yellow one) looks smaller and this is not a coincidence. Notice that each cycle is smaller than the previous one.

And this makes sense.

Bitcoin cycles are INFLATIONARY AND LOGARITHMIC.

Inflationary and logarithmic?

This is vital. Let me translate it for you.

Bitcoin should follow inflation because it is a finite asset like gold or real estate in certain areas.

Easy but logarithmic?

This is something you can't IGNORE anymore.

🤔 Bitcoin cycles go up less every time.

One reason is that the more an asset capitalizes the more it costs to keep it going up. Money in the world is finite and therefore when something capitalizes billions it starts to be complicated to make it grow in a faster rate than inflation.

But you must also know that in the Halvings the rewards to miners are reduced.

At the beginning this meant a beastly reduction of many BTCs which drove the price very high. But now the reward is barely reduced by 3 or 1 BTC so the price cannot rise at the same pace.

If we pay attention to previous cycles Bitcoin will keep falling in 2026 until the end of the year before starting a recovery. This is the most likely scenario right now.

So much for Bitcoin theory so let us go to the practical part.

🚀 Where will this low happen?

I do not know and nobody knows but we have clues.

In each of the cycles we have seen the price retreat from highs.

And a lot.

The first cycle down 85%
The second down 80%
The third down 75%

And now?

Maybe 70%? It could be. It is just an approximation.

This last drop to $60,000 is already a great milestone as the price has corrected 50% but in previous cycles we see that the best is still to come. It can fall another 50% down to $30k or $40k to meet the levels close to 70% correction which would seem plausible based on previous behavior.

In terms of price it seems there is a gap to fill and in terms of time it is even better.

Correction time of first cycle is 12 months
Correction time of second cycle is 12 months
Correction time of third cycle is 12 months

If this fourth cycle lasts the same as the previous ones we will be talking about seeing the moment of maximum pain in October 2026.

That is the moment where we will all say that $BTC is going to 0.

Who knows.

But, if we start accumulating in the $60k zone and save some money for the $30-40k area, we could easily average a $50k position during 2026.

After three years we should be at the next cycle peak which following a logarithmic progression could be somewhat higher than these last $120k (current cycle peak).

Let us assume $150k. (Which is a number I get from the serie of previous rallies, but there is too much math for today)

We are talking about selling the investment for triple the price in 3 years. That is a return that is not bad at all.

The risk is total. I go without a Stop Loss. It is aspirational investment and in no case is it capital protection.

And while we wait for the price to reach the right zone to keep buying, you could also make a quick trade to catch the next 10% rally.

👇 WANT MORE?

🚀 Hit the rocket, read my profile and follow so we can find each other again.
#BTC #bitcoin #TrendingTopic
{future}(BTCUSDT)

$BTC is at $67,811, and suddenly, everyone's an expert on where the bottom is.

"$59K is the floor!" says one analyst, pointing to the 200-week moving average.

"$60K that's where we bounce!" claims another, referencing the 2021 cycle high.

Polymarket traders are 95% confident #bitcoin drops below $65K. Bernstein analysts say $60K is the bottom. Michael Burry's chart pattern suggests low $50Ks.
Everyone has A number. Nobody has THE number.
And here's the uncomfortable truth: calling bottoms is where portfolios go to die.
The Pattern That Keeps Repeating
Let me show you something that should make you very, very cautious about anyone confidently calling a bottom right now.

2018: "$6K is the Floor!"
December 2017: Bitcoin hits $20,000 all-time high.
Throughout 2018, as Bitcoin bleeds, analysts start calling levels:

"$15K is strong support!" (Lost)"$10K psychological level!" (Lost)"$6K is THE bottom!" (Consensus formed here)

Everyone agreed: $6K was the line. It had been tested multiple times. It was previous resistance-turned-support. The charts were screaming it.
Actual bottom: $3,122.
The consensus was wrong by 48%.
2022: "$20K is the Floor!"
November 2021: Bitcoin hits $69,000 all-time high.
Throughout 2022, the same playbook:
"$30K strong support!" (Lost)"$20K is THE floor!" (Everyone believed this)
$20K was the previous cycle high from 2017. It was a textbook support level. Every analyst had it marked. Retail bought aggressively there.
Actual bottom: $15,479.
The consensus was wrong by 23%.
2026: "$59K is the Floor!"
October 2025: Bitcoin hits $126,210 all-time high.
Now, February 2026, Bitcoin at $67,500. And here we go again:
Analysts: "$59K-$60K is the bottom!"Bears: "$50K worst case!"Extreme bears: "$40K possible!"

Actual bottom: ???
But if history rhymes and it usually does the consensus is early. Again.
Why $59K Sounds So Convincing (And Why That's Dangerous)
Let me be clear: $59K-$60K IS a significant level. The arguments for it aren't stupid.
Here's why people are calling it:
1. The 200-Week Moving Average
Sits around $58K-$60K. Historically, Bitcoin has bounced hard from this level in every bear market.
2. Previous Cycle High
$69K was the 2021 ATH. Bitcoin often finds support near old cycle highs.
3. Realized Price
The average cost basis of all Bitcoin is near $60K. "Long-term holders defend this," they say.
4. Psychological Level
Clean, round number. Feels right.
5. Bernstein's Call
Credible analysts at Bernstein explicitly said, "$60K is where we bottom." All of these are VALID technical reasons.
But here's the problem: They were ALL valid in 2018 and 2022, too.
In 2018, analysts had equally strong reasons for $6K:
Previous support tested multiple times ✓Psychological round number ✓"Whales defending this level" ✓
Result: Wrong by 48%.

In 2022, analysts had equally strong reasons for $20K:
Previous cycle high ✓Strong psychological level ✓"Institutions accumulating here" ✓
Result: Wrong by 23%.

Technical levels don't care about your analysis. They break when sellers overwhelm buyers. And in bear markets, that happens more than people expect.
The Full Spectrum of Predictions (Everyone Has a Price)

Let's look at who's calling what:

The Optimists ($70K-$75K):
Bit Mining's Youwei Yang: "$75K possible low"Some retail: "We already bottomed at $67K!"

The Consensus ($55K-$65K):
Bernstein: "$60K bottom, last cycle high"Many analysts: "$59K, the 200-week MA"Standard Chartered: "$55K worst-case scenario"Polymarket: 95% chance we go below $65K

The Bears ($45K-$55K):
Michael Burry: Pattern suggests low $50Ks10X Research: "$52K possible"Tyler Richey: "$50K-$57K in severe macro downturn"

The Extreme Bears ($40K and lower):
John Blank (Zacks): "$40K within 8 months"Perma-bears: "Going to zero!" (Always wrong, but loud)
Notice the problem?
The range is $40K to $75K. That's a 46% spread.
If "the bottom" can be anywhere in a 46% range, does anyone actually know?
No. They're all guessing with different levels of confidence.
What Actually Happens When You Call Bottoms Too Early
Here's the real cost of being wrong.

Scenario: You have $10,000 to invest.
You see Bitcoin at $85K and think, "This is it! The bottom!"
You buy $3,000 worth. Bitcoin drops to $75K.
"Okay, THIS is the real bottom!" You buy another $3,000.
Bitcoin drops to $67K. You buy another $2,000. Now you only have $2,000 left.
Bitcoin drops to $59K. You deploy your last $2,000.

Then Bitcoin hits the ACTUAL bottom at $52K.
You're out of money. You can't buy. You watch others accumulate at levels you'd LOVE to have, but you're tapped out.

This is the cost of calling bottoms early:
You run out of capitalYour average cost is higher than it needed to beYou feel psychological pain watching it drop furtherYou either panic sell (worst move) or sit paralyzed
The traders who waited? They have dry powder at $52K. They get the best price. They win.

The Four Mistakes Bottom Callers Make
Mistake #1: Confusing "Support" with "THE Bottom"
The trap: "This level has held before, so it MUST hold again!"
The reality: Support levels are probabilities, not guarantees. They hold until they don't.
In 2018, $6K held... until it didn't. Then it crashed to $3K.

In 2022, $20K held... until it didn't. Then it crashed to $15.5K.
Lesson: Support can become resistance. Nothing is a "floor" until price proves it by reversing.
Mistake #2: Anchoring to Round Numbers
The trap: "$60K feels right. It's a clean number."
The reality: Markets don't care about your round numbers. Bottoms often occur at ugly prices like $15,479 or $3,122 not $15,000 or $3,000.
Lesson: If everyone's watching the same round number, smart money will push it just past that to trigger stops and create panic.
Mistake #3: Ignoring Historical Precedent
The trap: "This time is different. We have ETFs now. Institutions are here."
The reality: Every cycle, people say "this time is different." And every cycle, bottoms are lower than the consensus predicted.
2018: "We have futures now!" (Still crashed)

2022: "We have institutional adoption!" (Still crashed)

2026: "We have spot ETFs!" (Still...)
Lesson: New infrastructure doesn't prevent bear markets. It just changes WHO is selling.
Mistake #4: Betting the Farm on One Level
The trap: "I KNOW $59K is the bottom, so I'm going all-in there!"
The reality: You don't know. Nobody knows. If you deploy 100% of capital at one level and it breaks, you're done.
Lesson: Layer your buys. Have a plan for IF your bottom call is wrong.
So What Should You Actually Do?
If calling bottoms is dangerous, what's the alternative?
Option 1: Wait for Confirmation
Don't try to catch the exact bottom. Let price PROVE it bottomed first.
How do you know it bottomed?
Price makes a higher lowVolume dries up on dumps, spikes on bouncesFear & Greed stays below 10 for weeks, then starts risingOn-chain: Long-term holders start accumulating aggressively
You'll "miss" 10-20% of the move. But you'll avoid catching falling knives.
Better to enter at $65K on the way UP than $59K on the way DOWN to $52K.
Option 2: Layer Your Entries (DCA on Steroids)
Don't go all-in at one level. Spread your buys across a range.
Example with $10,000:
$67K (current): $0 (wait)$65K: $1,000 (10%)$60K: $2,000 (20%)$55K: $3,000 (30%)$50K: $4,000 (40%)
This way:
If it bottoms at $60K, you got someIf it goes to $50K, you have the most at the best priceYou never run out of capital

Option 3: Set Conditions, Not Prices
Instead of "I'll buy at $59K," use conditions:
"I'll buy when Fear & Greed hits 5""I'll buy when RSI is oversold for 2+ weeks""I'll buy when long-term holder supply increases""I'll buy when we see capitulation wicks with immediate recovery"
Conditions are more flexible than rigid price targets.
My Personal Take (And What I'm Actually Doing)
Here's my honest position:
I'm not calling $59K the bottom.
Could it be? Sure. The technicals support it.
But I've seen this movie before. In 2022, I was convinced $20K would hold. It didn't. That experience cost me.

Here's what I'm doing instead:
Holding cash. I'm not deploying heavily until I see confirmation.Watching $66K, $60K, $52K. These are my levels of interest—NOT my "guaranteed bottom calls."Scaling in, not going all-in. If we hit $60K, I'll deploy 20-30%. If we hit $52K, I'll deploy more. If we bounce before that, I'll enter on confirmation.Monitoring signals:Long-term holder accumulation (on-chain data)Volume patterns (exhaustion)Sentiment extremes (Fear & Greed)Macro shifts (Fed, dollar, metals)Accepting I might be early OR late. I'm okay missing the exact bottom if it means I avoid the pain of being early.
The goal isn't to time the perfect bottom. The goal is to survive the bear market with capital intact so I can deploy when the odds shift in my favor.
The Uncomfortable Truth
Nobody and I mean NOBODY knows where Bitcoin will bottom in 2026.
Not Bernstein analysts.

Not Michael Burry.

Not the "experts" on Twitter.

Not me.
The only thing we know for sure is this:
Bottoms happen when sellers are exhausted, not when analysts say soHistorical bottom calls have been early by 20-50%Markets punish overconfidenceCash is a position (and often the best one in uncertainty)
$59K might be the bottom. It has all the technical hallmarks.
But $52K might be the bottom. Or $45K. Or $67.5K was it and we're already bouncing.
The point is: You don't have to know.
You just have to have a plan for multiple scenarios and the discipline not to blow all your capital chasing the first level that "looks like a bottom."
The Bottom Line (Pun Intended)
If you're reading this and thinking, "But I KNOW $59K is it!" I respect that conviction.
Just remember:
In 2018, people KNEW $6K was it. They were wrong.In 2022, people KNEW $20K was it. They were wrong.
You might be right. Or you might be wrong.
The best traders don't bet on being right. They plan for being wrong.
They layer entries. They keep dry powder. They wait for confirmation.
And when the dust settles and the bottom is actually in, they're still standing with capital to deploy.
That's how you survive bear markets.
Not by calling the bottom perfectly. But by not getting destroyed trying to.
What's your take are you buying now, waiting for $59K, or holding cash until you see confirmation? Let me know your strategy below.
#btc70k