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Bitcoin BTC $67 853 24h volatility: 1.4% Market cap: $1.36 T Vol. 24h: $47.33 B and the broader crypto market are bracing for potential volatility as traders await the delayed January US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report now scheduled for release this week. BTC hovers near $68K, struggling to establish a solid floor after a correction triggered by evolving macroeconomic expectations.

FED RATE CUTS STILL LIKELY—BUT NO RUSH: UBS

Easing U.S. inflation should keep the Federal Reserve on track for rate cuts despite strong jobs data, UBS Global Wealth Management says. It expects two 25-basis-point cuts in June and September, supporting equities, bonds, and gold.…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) February 12, 2026

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Market Eyes US Inflation Data and Fed Path

The postponed BLS inflation print has gained outsized importance following January’s stronger-than-expected jobs report, 130,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment falling to 4.3%, which pushed back expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts and strengthened the “higher-for-longer” interest-rate outlook. Traders are evaluating whether the CPI will support the Fed’s 2% target or confirm persistent inflationary pressures.

Adding another layer of complexity, President Trump’s nomination of pro-Bitcoin advocate Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair (effective post-May) introduces possible long-term shifts in monetary policy that could influence risk-asset sentiment and Bitcoin’s trajectory in the months ahead.

NEW: Job growth SURGED in January, adding 130,000 total non-farm jobs and 172,000 private sector jobs — shattering expectations once again.

The unemployment rate fell. Wages grew. Federal employment is now at its lowest level since 1966.

This is the Trump Economy 📈📈📈 pic.twitter.com/JxyUYGE1c9

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) February 11, 2026

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Potential Market Scenarios – Bitcoin Price Towards $60K?

Bitcoin Price Action Source: TradingView

If tomorrow’s CPI data comes in “hotter” than 2.5%, a break below the $60,000 psychological floor is likely. This level represents a critical support zone where institutional “buy-the-dip” orders are concentrated. Conversely, a lower-than-expected inflation reading could cause a squeeze back toward the $74,400 resistance level.

Data from the CME FedWatch tool currently shows a nearly 95% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in the near term.

Target Rate Probabilities for 18 Mar 2026 Fed Meeting Source: FedWatch

Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey Group, warned that “good news” for the economy, such as robust growth or sticky prices, is currently treating markets to “bad news” by delaying liquidity injections.

While some analysts argue that the crypto winter that began in January 2025 presents signs of recovery, the immediate price action remains tethered to this week’s critical data release.

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Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) and prominent market analysts are confident: the coming years could validate the “Bitcoin Super Cycle,” fundamentally decoupling the asset from its traditional four-year patterns. This potential structural shift suggests that institutional liquidity and regulatory clarity may finally supersede the programmatic impact of supply issuance.

Historically, Bitcoin’s price discovery has been tethered to the Halving Cycle, a recurring event that slashes miner rewards in half every four years. However, the market landscape has evolved significantly following the approval of US spot ETFs and the unprecedented influx of corporate capital. Industry observers argue that rising global liquidity and impending legislative frameworks like the CLARITY Act are now overpowering the supply shock mechanics, setting the stage for a sustained uptrend driven by demand rather than scarcity alone.

CZ: A CRYPTO SUPERCYCLE IS POSSIBLE

CZ says Trump will do everything to make the stock market do well, expecting liquidity to spill over into crypto.

“If stocks do well, it’s usually good for crypto,” he said, opening the door to a possible super cycle 🚀 pic.twitter.com/N0VyzpiK9Q

— Trending Bitcoin (@TrendingBitcoin) February 11, 2026

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Is the Halving Cycle Beating a Retreat? A New Idea Of The Bitcoin Super Cycle

This is the current idea:  For CZ, the entry of institutional capital at scale signals a departure from retail-driven boom-bust volatility. He suggests the market is maturing and adoption curves are becoming more important than simply reducing new coin issuance.

This view challenges the rigid expectation of a bear market merely because a specific time has passed since the last halving.

Supporting this thesis, macroeconomic data indicate that Bitcoin’s correlation with the global M2 money supply is strong, suggesting that central bank policies are a more potent price driver than internal protocol mechanics.

Analysts like Ali Martinez have pointed to historical patterns suggesting that without a massive catalyst, Bitcoin could still face deep cyclical corrections, potentially retesting lower support levels before any renewed parabolic run.

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A New 2026 Crypto Outlook

The potential shift toward a Super Cycle places significant weight on the regulatory and macroeconomic environment expected in the near future. The advancement of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY Act, represents a crucial piece of this puzzle. By potentially establishing a clear division of power between the SEC and CFTC, the legislation could offer the jurisdictional certainty needed to unlock trillions in sideline institutional capital, reinforcing the asset class against traditional volatility.

Furthermore, the 2026 Crypto Outlook is complicated by broader monetary factors. With the term of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expiring in May 2026, uncertainty regarding future interest rate policies could drive investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge against central bank unpredictability. If these regulatory and monetary catalysts align, the market may finally break free from the four-year cycle, entering a period of sustained appreciation characteristic of a mature global reserve asset.

EXPLORE: Upcoming Binance Listing To Watch in 2026

Bitcoin Price Analysis: Super Cycle Loading… Or Just Another Dip?

Bitcoin Price Analysis Source: TradingView

Bitcoin hovers around $67,000–$67,500, nursing a brutal 45–50% drawdown from the October 2025 ATH above $126K. Whale dumps (including a fresh $172M stack) and thinning futures OI have fueled the bleed, with price coiling between $60K support and $69K resistance.

On-chain signals scream accumulation, yet ETF outflows and macro caution keep the vibe bearish short-term with potential flush to $60K or lower before any real squeeze.

The market’s failure to surge past $69K so far is proving a harsh counterpunch to CZ’s bold Super Cycle thesis: instead of decoupling into endless upside, BTC remains chained to classic post-peak correction dynamics, with bulls lacking the firepower for a breakout.

For now, it’s sideways.

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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has called for a strategic pivot in how blockchain technology interfaces with AI or artificial intelligence, warning against the “unchecked speed” of current AGI development.

In a post on X from yesterday, Buterin argued that Ethereum should serve as critical infrastructure to guide AI development toward verifiable and decentralized outcomes rather than simply accelerating model power.

Two years ago, I wrote this post on the possible areas that I see for ethereum + AI intersections: https://t.co/ds9mLnrJWm

This is a topic that many people are excited about, but where I always worry that we think about the two from completely separate philosophical… pic.twitter.com/pQq5kazT61

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) February 9, 2026

Vitalik Buterin’s Vision for Decentralized AI

This commentary revisits concepts Vitalik first explored in early 2024, responding to the industry’s increasing focus on Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). While many competitors focus on raw computational speed, Buterin emphasizes safety, human agency, and decentralization. He argues that the race to build more powerful systems risks missing the necessity of distributed control.

This aligns with his broader philosophy for the network’s maturity. Previously, Vitalik Buterin has stated that no more copy-paste EVM projects are needed, urging developers to focus on unique value propositions like AI integration. The discussion arrives as the Ethereum Foundation continues to harden the network’s security, recently partnering with security firms to combat wallet drainers, a necessary foundation for handling the high-stakes automated economies AI agents are expected to manage.

And not only is Vitalik feeling the AI x Ethereum excitement. After the ERC-8004 launched on the Ethereum mainnet, a lot of crypto Twitter accounts felt the hype.

Ethereum is for AI.

ERC-8004, a new standard by the @ethereumfndn dAI Team, @MetaMask, @Google, @Coinbase, and others, provides a blueprint for how AI agents find and review each other, request and pay for jobs, and verify the work done.

What builders need to know.

— Ethereum (@ethereum) February 4, 2026

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Infrastructure for Coordination and Verification

Buterin envisions a near-term future where Ethereum acts as the economic layer for AI agents. He proposes tools enabling users to interact with models privately, moving away from centralized black boxes. Key to this vision is the ability for AI agents to “coordinate economically,” allowing bots to pay other bots, post security deposits, and resolve disputes on-chain without a central intermediary.

Buterin highlights specific intersections for synergy: using AI as an interface for Web3, and utilizing cryptography to verify model behavior. He also addressed the risks of open AI models, noting they can invite machine learning attacks. To mitigate this, he advocates for local execution of models paired with cryptographic proofs.

“To me, Ethereum, and my own view of how our civilization should do AGI, are precisely about choosing a positive direction rather than embracing undifferentiated acceleration of the arrow,” Buterin wrote.

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Strategic Shifts in the Crypto-AI Narrative

This framework positions Ethereum not just as a financial ledger, but as a governance layer for autonomous intelligence capable of checking Big Tech’s dominance. As Buterin has noted regarding the Layer 2 scaling narrative, the network’s evolution depends on solving real-world utility problems effectively. By prioritizing cryptographic verification over raw throughput, Ethereum is positioning itself to capture value from the creation of safe, decentralized AI economies.

Other industry observers have noted that this approach contrasts with networks focusing solely on speed. Recent coverage on Binance Square highlights how Buterin’s model attempts to solve the “black box” problem of current AI governance through transparent on-chain mechanisms.

For now, Ethereum itself is battling to blast past $2,200 and is holding at a critical support level.

(source – Tradingview)

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A federal judge in Brooklyn has sentenced Braden John Karony, the former CEO of Defi project SafeMoon, to 100 months in prison for his role in a multi-million dollar fraud scheme.

JUST IN: Founder of SafeMoon, Braden Karony, has just been sentenced to 100 months in prison.

— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) February 10, 2026

Karony was convicted of conspiratorial fraud and money laundering after diverting approximately $9 million in investor funds to purchase luxury assets, despite public assurances that the project’s liquidity pools were locked.

The coin itself, Safemoon or SFM, has been in decline since the last bull run, now hovering at -99% from its top in 2021.

(source – Coingecko)

Fraud Scheme Exposed: Safemoon CEO in The Wrong?

Launched in March 2021 on the Binance Smart Chain, SafeMoon rapidly gained popularity during the 2021 crypto bull market by promising holders passive yields through redistributed transaction fees. A core component of the project’s marketing was the claim that liquidity pools were “locked” and inaccessible to the developers, supposedly securing investor funds against a “rug pull”.

However, federal prosecutors demonstrated that Karony and his co-conspirators, including former Chief Technology Officer Thomas Smith and creator Kyle Nagy, maintained secret access to these pools.

(source – Justice.gov)

According to court findings, the executives exploited this backdoor to drain millions of dollars from the SafeMoon US LLC liquidity pools. The sentencing on Tuesday comes nine months after a federal jury convicted Karony of conspiracy to commit securities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering in May 2025. While Smith pleaded guilty earlier and awaits sentencing, Nagy remains a fugitive with an active warrant for his arrest.

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Court Mandates Forfeiture and Restitution

During the sentencing hearing, the court ordered Karony to forfeit approximately $7.5 million and his interest in two residential properties. The Department of Justice (DOJ) revealed that the stolen proceeds were used to finance a lavish lifestyle, including the purchase of a $2.2 million home in Utah, a Tesla, an Audi R8, and other custom vehicles. FBI Assistant Director James C. Barnacle, Jr. emphasized the betrayal of fiduciary trust in a statement regarding the verdict:

Not only did Braden John Karony abuse his position as CEO, but he also betrayed his investors’ trust by stealing more than nine million dollars in digital assets from his company to fund his lavish lifestyle.

While the forfeiture addresses the illicit gains, the court indicated that the final restitution amount for victims would be determined at a later date, consistent with procedures seen in other major financial fraud cases reported by legal analysts.

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Authorities Continue Crackdown on Crypto Crimes

The 100-month sentence reinforces the US government’s intensifying focus on accountability within the digital asset sector. The outcome aligns with broader enforcement trends where financial opacity is met with severe penalties. For instance, the US DOJ recently finalized a $400 million forfeiture in the Helix crypto mixer case, signaling a continued zero-tolerance policy for platforms that facilitate illicit money flows.

This strict judicial stance is not limited to the United States. Recently, South Korea sentenced a crypto firm executive to jail just ahead of implementing tighter corporate regulations. The severity of sentences varies by crime, but the trajectory is clear; cases involving direct theft or darknet operations attract long terms, such as when the Incognito Market founder received a 30-year jail term. For SafeMoon investors, Karony’s sentencing marks the closure of a significant chapter in the project’s controversial history.

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Japan’s MicroStrategy Metaplanet said that it will continue with the company’s Bitcoin accumulation plan, unfazed by the BTC BTC $68 317 24h volatility: 2.7% Market cap: $1.36 T Vol. 24h: $167.17 B price correction. This comes as Bitcoin is down more than 22% over the past week, with expectations of further crash under $50,000.

Metaplanet to Continue with Bitcoin Buying

Metaplanet CEO Simon Gerovich reaffirmed the company’s Bitcoin-first strategy, amid the massive crypto market drawdown. Speaking on the development, Simon Gerovich said:

“[T]here is no change to Metaplanet’s strategy. We will steadily continue to accumulate Bitcoin, expand revenue and prepare for the next phase of growth.”

The company ranks as the fourth-largest public Bitcoin treasury holder, trailing Strategy, MARA Holdings, and Twenty One Capital, with Metaplanet holding 35,102 BTC as of Feb 6.

After achieving its 30,000 BTC goal before time in 2025, the company has slowed down the pace of its Bitcoin purchase. This comes as the BTC price is down by nearly 50% from October 2025, from its all-time high.

On Jan. 29, Metaplanet approved a new equity financing plan to raise up to 20.7 billion JPY, or roughly $135–$137 million, aimed at expanding its Bitcoin holdings.

The company said it will issue new shares and stock acquisition rights via a third-party allotment, with the majority of the proceeds earmarked for Bitcoin purchases in 2026.

MTPLF Stock Price Crashes 20%

The Mataplanet Stock (MTPLF) was down by a massive 20% on Feb. 5, closing at $1.86. The stock price has already corrected 50% over the past year. This brutal correction in the broader crypto market has weighed in on Metaplanet and other Bitcoin Treasury firms.

Most of these firms, which hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, have been sitting on unrealized losses. On the other hand, Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) decreased by 17% on Feb. 5, after reporting a massive $12.4 billion Bitcoin loss.

The company stated that its capital structure remains “stronger and more resilient” and that it does not face any significant debt maturities until 2027.

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Veteran trader Robert Kiyosaki has revealed that he sold portions of his Bitcoin BTC $65 941 24h volatility: 7.5% Market cap: $1.32 T Vol. 24h: $166.54 B and gold holdings, despite previously making bullish predictions.

The announcement comes as Bitcoin’s price continues to slide toward the $64,000 level.

After sharing the news on X, Kiyosaki faced significant backlash from followers, with some criticizing him for the move.

AS I POSTED on X earlier.

I stopped buying silver at $60.

I stopped buying Bitcoin at $6000.

I stopped buying gold at $300.

I have sold some Bitcoin and some gold. I hate selling because I hate paying capital gain taxes.

Today…. I wait patiently for new bottoms for gold…

— Robert Kiyosaki (@theRealKiyosaki) February 6, 2026

 

Robert Kiyosaki on Bitcoin Selling and Debt Risks

Amid the recent downturn in Bitcoin and precious metals, investor Robert Kiyosaki revealed that he has sold portions of his Bitcoin and gold holdings.

He shared on X that he previously stopped buying silver at $60, Bitcoin at $6,000, and gold at $300.

Kiyosaki added that, although he has paused further purchases of gold and Bitcoin, he plans to wait for lower price levels before re-entering the market.

“Your profit is made when you buy… not when you sell,” he wrote, emphasizing a long-term investment strategy.

Kiyosaki also expressed concerns about the US economy as the national debt surpasses $38 trillion. He criticized the Federal Reserve, political leaders, and the banking system, warning of potentially difficult economic conditions ahead.

Robert Kiyosaki has spent the past year advocating for investments in Bitcoin, gold, and silver. While silver rallied to $121 by the end of January 2026, it has since corrected more than 45% from its peak in just a week.

The impact has also been felt across the broader crypto market, which lost approximately $750 billion in market capitalization over the same period. On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has declined 22%, trading around the $64,500 level.

Crypto Market Feels Impact of US Tech Stock Sell-Off

The recent correction in US tech stocks, driven by AI-related concerns, has spilled over into other asset classes. Beyond equities, commodities, precious metals, and cryptocurrencies have also seen sharp declines.

In the past 24 hours alone, the crypto market has lost more than $300 billion. Over the past week, investors have seen roughly $750 billion wiped from the market.

As per Coinglass data, the 24-hour liquidations across the crypto market have now soared to $2.6 billion. More than $2.17 billion has been wiped out of the long positions, with BTC price alone contributing $1.35 billion out of this.

Crypto market liquidations. | Source: Coinglass

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Secure Digital Markets sent $1 million to Kraken over Bitcoin’s Lightning Network on January 28, 2026, settling the transaction almost instantly with minimal fees—the first publicly disclosed seven-figure payment on the protocol.

Lightning Network was built to handle small, everyday transactions, usually under $100. The protocol works as a second layer on top of Bitcoin BTC $63 911 24h volatility: 12.1% Market cap: $1.28 T Vol. 24h: $140.30 B blockchain, using pre-funded payment channels to speed up transfers and cut costs compared to sluggish on-chain settlements. This layer was designed before 2017, and it’s under constant test to know its limits.

But this new pilot with Kraken shows it can handle institutional-sized payments, too, thanks to Voltage’s managed node infrastructure, which offers the uptime and liquidity guarantees big players need, according to the announcement.

Mostafa Al-Mashita, who co-founded SDM and runs sales and trading there, framed the test as a turning point. “Moving $1 million to Kraken over the Lightning Network marks a definitive shift in the architecture of global settlement,” he said. “We have moved past the era of questioning Bitcoin’s institutional capacity. Now, the only remaining variable is how quickly lagging institutions will abandon legacy systems.”

Lightning Network Capacity and Usage Show Growth

Lightning’s total capacity hit an all-time high of over 5,600 BTC last December, up from around 4,200 BTC earlier in 2025, according to data from Bitcoin Visuals. The network currently operates with approximately 17,300 nodes and 40,900 active channels, according to mempool space data, down from peak node counts in previous years but with consolidated, higher-capacity channels.

Graph of Lightning Network capacity over time | Source: Bitcoin Visuals

This conduct appears to be related to merchant adoption acceleration over the last few years. Lightning now handles roughly 15% of Bitcoin payments for merchants, nearly double the rate from 2023, according to Coinlaw report. Major exchanges like Binance added substantial liquidity to their Lightning channels, driving much of the capacity growth. Even the big merchant payments company, like Square, enabled its use at the end of 2025.

One infrastructure provider, LQWD Technologies, reported routing over 2,012 BTC across 2 million transactions by December, with daily volumes reaching 7,500.

If SDM’s pilot signals broader institutional interest, Lightning could shift from a micropayment tool to a legitimate settlement network for high-value transfers. The infrastructure appears ready; the question is whether traditional finance will follow these innovations.

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Michael Saylor‘s Strategy Inc. posted a staggering $12.4 billion net loss for the fourth quarter of 2025, driven almost entirely by unrealized losses on its bitcoin treasury as crypto prices tumbled.

The company disclosed Wednesday that it now holds 713,502 bitcoins acquired at a total cost of $54.26 billion, representing an average purchase price of $76,052 per coin. Despite the paper losses, Strategy added 41,002 bitcoins in January 2026 alone, signaling no retreat from its core accumulation strategy.

Strategy announces Q4 2025 results:– 713,502 $BTC held– 22.8% BTC Yield in 2025– Largest US equity issuer, raised $25.3 billion in 2025– $STRC scaled to $3.4 billion; 11.25% current dividend rate https://t.co/d6oGz8jHI8

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 5, 2026

The quarterly bloodbath on the income statement reflects Strategy’s adoption of fair value accounting in January 2025, which forces bitcoin’s price fluctuations to flow directly through financial results each period. This marks a dramatic shift from the previous cost-less-impairment model that only recognized downward moves.

Strategy’s stock (MSTR) mirrored the pain, plunging 17.12% to close at $106.99 on Wednesday before sliding further to $103.14 in after-hours trading—a combined drop of over 20% as investors digested both the quarterly loss and continued bitcoin weakness. Analysts have started slashing price targets amid the double whammy of accounting losses and persistent market volatility.

Strategy’s stock (MSTR) plunged 17.12% to $106.99 | Source: Yahoo Finance

Saylor, the company’s Executive Chairman, maintained his long-term conviction stating: “Strategy has built a digital fortress anchored by 713,502 bitcoins and our shift to Digital Credit, which aligns with our indefinite bitcoin horizon.” The holdings carried a market value of $59.75 billion as of February 1st based on a bitcoin price of $83,740—a valuation that looked increasingly disconnected from reality as prices cratered below $63,000 just days later.

STRC Preferred Stock Scales to $3.4 Billion with 11.25% Yield

Strategy expanded its flagship Digital Credit instrument throughout the quarter despite the market turbulence. The STRC (Stretch) preferred stock, which features a variable dividend rate, grew to an aggregate stated amount of $3.4 billion. The current annualized dividend sits at 11.25%, adjusted monthly through a formula designed to anchor the trading price near its $100 par value.

Since launching the instrument, Strategy has paid out $413 million in cumulative distributions to STRC shareholders, representing a blended annual yield of 9.6%. All 2025 distributions qualified as non-taxable return of capital for U.S. tax purposes, a benefit Strategy expects to continue for the foreseeable future—potentially ten years or more—given the company projects zero accumulated earnings for tax calculations.

“STRC (Stretch), our flagship Digital Credit instrument, has grown to $3.4 billion in size, supported by increasing liquidity and declining volatility. Our variable dividend rate mechanism for STRC, currently set at 11.25%, has helped maintain STRC price stability near the $100 stated amount despite a weaker bitcoin price environment,” said Phong Le, the company’s President and CEO.

Throughout 2025, Strategy completed five initial public offerings across different classes of preferred stock, pulling in $5.5 billion in gross proceeds. The company also built what it calls a “USD Reserve” totaling $2.25 billion—enough to cover 2.5 years of dividend obligations and debt interest payments. Chief Financial Officer Andrew Kang emphasized that “Strategy’s capital structure is stronger and more resilient today than ever before,” pointing to how the cash buffer reinforces creditworthiness even as mark-to-market losses pile up.

Bitcoin Plummets Below $63,000 as $2.11 Billion in Leveraged Positions Evaporate

Wednesday’s trading session turned into a bloodbath for crypto markets, compounding Strategy’s problems. Bitcoin BTC $63 911 24h volatility: 12.1% Market cap: $1.28 T Vol. 24h: $140.30 B tumbled from near $73,3400 to an intraday low of $62,345—the weakest level since November 2025. The hourly chart shows relentless selling that shattered every intermediate support level, with prices shedding over $25,000 from the three-month highs. The daily decline topped 12.80%, trapping countless investors in underwater positions and triggering cascading liquidations across derivatives markets.

Bitcoin crash from $73,3400 to $62,345 | Source: TradingView

According to CoinGlass data, 433,413 traders got liquidated across all cryptocurrencies over the past 24 hours, wiping out $2.11 billion worth of positions. Bitcoin alone accounted for $1.15 billion in forced liquidations as of this writing,

Liquidation heatmap and total liquidations as of February 5, 2026 | Source: CoinGlass

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Tether Investments announced on February 05 that it invested $100 million in Anchorage Digital, backing the federally chartered bank that issues its USA₮ stablecoin for the American market.

This equity stake builds on an existing relationship between the companies as Tether pursues a significant foothold in the United States. Anchorage Digital Bank N.A., the country’s first federally chartered digital asset bank, issues USA₮, Tether’s domestically compliant stablecoin launched in January 2026.

“Tether exists to challenge the status quo and build global infrastructure for freedom,” said Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether, in their press release. “Our investment in Anchorage Digital reflects a shared belief in the importance of secure, transparent, and resilient financial systems. Anchorage Digital has set a strong benchmark for institutional digital asset infrastructure, and we are pleased to support its continued growth.”

Tether Announces $100 Million Strategic Equity Investment in Anchorage Digital

Read more:https://t.co/rp211Yr1Qz

— Tether (@tether) February 5, 2026

US and Tether to Have Closer Relations

Anchorage is a banking company that has been working since 2020 to unite the worlds of crypto and traditional finance. In 2024, it received a BitLicense to operate in New York, further strengthening its credentials as a supervised institution. Worth mentioning, Tether’s flagship USDT token has faced compliance hurdles in the US in the past, making the Anchorage partnership critical for market access in the country.

The investment gives Tether more than an equity position. It connects the company to the federally chartered banking industry at a time when Washington is scrutinizing stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act. By working through Anchorage’s compliance and custody systems, Tether could operate in a supervised framework while supporting the platform behind USA₮.

The deal shows that breaking into the US stablecoin market requires partnering with chartered banks rather than bypassing traditional finance, as Tether tried in the past.

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Michael Burry, the investor who anticipated the 2008 mortgage crisis, issued a stark warning on February 5 about Bitcoin BTC $65 340 24h volatility: 11.5% Market cap: $1.31 T Vol. 24h: $116.64 B : the cryptocurrency could be replicating the 2021-2022 collapse pattern, which would imply an additional drop toward $50,000 or even lower.

Burry posted on X a comparative chart with the simple message “$BTC Patterns,” where he draws structural similarities between the current drop—from $126,000 to $70,000—and the previous brutal plunge that took Bitcoin from $35,000 to below $20,000.

$BTC Patterns pic.twitter.com/Ax595mNXrD

— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) February 4, 2026

Although Burry did not specify an exact price target, the visual implication is clear: if the pattern repeats, Bitcoin has room to fall to the $50,000 zone.

Burry’s warning doesn’t come out of nowhere. Just two days earlier, on February 3, he had published an extensive analysis on his Substack detailing why he believes Bitcoin is entering dangerous territory. According to Bloomberg, Burry warned that “sickening scenarios have now come within reach” if Bitcoin fell another 10% from early-week levels.

Burry was specific on something: such a drop would leave Strategy billions in the red with capital markets essentially closed. Beyond that, an additional drop toward $50,000 would not only devastate miners—many operate with tight margins that wouldn’t survive those prices—but would trigger cascading effects that could contaminate other markets.

Technical Analysis Suggests Further Downside

Bitcoin is currently trading at $67,274, down 8.15% in the last 24 hours. Technical indicators show a bearish trend firmly established, with multiple short signals activated across different timeframes. The chart reveals a descending price channel that has been driving the cryptocurrency lower since its all-time high near $126,000.

BTC price chart 1H | Source: TradingView

For Bitcoin to reach Burry’s $50,000 target, it would need to fall an additional 25% from current levels. The technical pattern visible on the chart suggests this scenario remains within the realm of possibility, particularly if the descending trend continues.

Short-term indicators including moving averages, momentum oscillators, and volume profiles all point to continued selling pressure, with resistance levels forming around $76,000 that could cap any potential recovery attempts.

Burry’s central thesis is that Bitcoin has been exposed as a purely speculative asset that failed to become a true hedge against monetary debasement. Unlike gold and silver, which have reached all-time highs amid geopolitical tensions and dollar concerns, Bitcoin has completely ignored those traditional catalysts.

Burry dismantles the argument that institutional adoption—through spot ETFs and corporate treasuries—will protect Bitcoin from severe corrections. He points out that approximately 200 public companies hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, but this doesn’t guarantee stability because “there is nothing permanent about treasury assets.”

The big question dividing analysts is whether this historical pattern has real predictive validity. The 2021-2022 collapse occurred under very different conditions: aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, collapse of unsustainable retail leverage, and the implosion of platforms like Terra and FTX. Today the market has institutional ETFs, greater liquidity depth, and better regulatory infrastructure. But Burry seems to be betting that market psychology and technical patterns can repeat regardless of macro context.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have seen major outflows throughout January 2026. Despite this, the overall drop in BTC held by these ETFs is just 6.6% since October 2025. During the same period, BTC BTC $65 340 24h volatility: 11.5% Market cap: $1.31 T Vol. 24h: $116.64 B price crashed by 44%, showing that investors are holding with diamond hands.

Bitcoin ETF Holders Show Strength

The major outflows coming from spot Bitcoin ETFs have stirred up market sentiment. Extreme fear has taken hold across the crypto market, but ETF data suggests institutional holders are largely staying put.

Market enthusiast Shaun Edmonson has shared an interesting statistic. He noted that US spot Bitcoin ETFs held approximately 1,362,293 BTC as of Oct. 10, 2025. Since then, Bitcoin’s price has fallen about 44%. Despite the sharp drawdown, ETF holdings have declined by only 6.6%, indicating limited selling from these vehicles.

Extreme fear is spreading. Here are some solid facts 👇. US ETFs held 1,362,293 BTC at 10/10/25. The price is down 44% but the holdings are only down 6.6%. These guys are serious hodlers@EricBalchunas @JSeyff @jameslavish @CarlBMenger @NeilJacobs @seth_fin… pic.twitter.com/Gy7PuB4zu2

— Shaun Edmondson (@EdmondsonShaun) February 5, 2026

The drop in ETF Bitcoin balances is relatively very small in comparison to the BTC price drop. This suggests that institutional investors are maintaining long-term positions rather than capitulating during the downturn.

Eric Balchunas, the senior ETF analyst for Bloomberg has validated this. Furthermore, he shared a historical context by comparing the Bitcoin ETF outflows with gold ETF outflows.

Fun fact: $GLD fell on hard times a couple times in its 22yr life as an ETF. At one point it dropped 40% in 6mo and 33% of the assets left in outflows (since then it's taken in like $30b in new cash). This is why I like to point that a) 6-7% of aum leaving is actually quite…

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 5, 2026

Balchunas wrote that the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) have faced several difficult periods during their history of the past 22 years. At one stage, the gold ETF fell about 40% within six months, while roughly 33% of its assets exited through outflows. Despite that, GLD has since attracted nearly $30 billion in new inflows.

Thus, he pointed out that with only 6-7% of assets leaving Bitcoin ETFs, despite this massive BTC price crash, it shows major strength.

BTC Crash Tests Resolve of ETFs

According to Galaxy Research data, the average cost basis of spot Bitcoin ETF holders is $84,099. With BTC price falling under $70,000 at press time, the ETFs are deep underwater.

Bitcoin ETF outflows average cost basis | Source: Galaxy Research

Another Bloomberg ETF analyst, James Seyffart, said Bitcoin ETFs have shown resilience despite recent market weakness.

In a post on X, Seyffart noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded more than $7 billion in outflows since Oct. 10, 2025, when market conditions began to deteriorate. However, he added that the pullback remains relatively modest when viewed against the roughly $63 billion in inflows the funds attracted at their peak.

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Strategy Inc. stock is facing a selloff in pre-market as investors are anticipating its earnings report and Bitcoin price trading below $70,000. This outlook has raised fresh questions about the value of the company’s large BTC BTC $65 340 24h volatility: 11.5% Market cap: $1.31 T Vol. 24h: $116.64 B holdings. MSTR stock slipped about 5% ahead of results after a major analyst reduced expectations.

Strategy Stock Falls as Bitcoin Crash Weakens Sentiment

Strategy shares moved lower before its fourth-quarter earnings release, reflecting a wide BTC selloff in the market. Earlier this week, a leading analyst at Canaccord lowered the price target to $185 from $474. This marks one of the sharpest cuts in recent Wall Street forecasts.

The main reason for this revised outlook was the decline in Bitcoin prices. As of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $69,274.19, down 8.92% In the past 24 hours. Coinspeaker reported earlier that Veteran trader Peter Brandt said Bitcoin could drop to $63,800.

This decline directly affects the value of Strategy’s balance sheet because of its heavy exposure to the digital asset. Even with the lower target, Canaccord kept a Buy rating, saying the company still serves as a vehicle for investors who want exposure to Bitcoin without holding the asset directly.

However, sentiment has shifted as investors appear less willing to pay a large premium above the value of the Bitcoin held by the company.

Market participants also expect Strategy to record an unrealized loss for the quarter due to the drop in Bitcoin during the reporting period. This has added to uncertainty ahead of the earnings announcement and explains part of the recent selling pressure.

Earnings Expectations and Wall Street Outlook

It is important to add that the firm expects fourth-quarter revenue of about $119.12 million, a modest increase from last year. Forecasts also point to a much smaller loss of $0.08 per share compared with a loss of $3.03 per share a year earlier. This suggests operational improvement despite market volatility.

Wall Street sentiment remains broadly positive. According to analyst data, Strategy holds a Strong Buy consensus rating, with most analysts maintaining bullish views even after recent price swings. The average price target stands at $437.11, implying significant upside if Bitcoin stabilizes and investor confidence returns.

While the broader market faces a sharp decline, analyst PlanB outlines four bear market scenarios as Bitcoin drawdown expands. Investors are watching for signs of a bottom and possible crypto winter trends.

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Gemini Space Station Inc. approved a plan to exit the UK, the EU, and Australia and cut up to 200 jobs, equal to about 25% of global headcount, according to an official statement on Feb. 5, 2026.

According to a recent SEC filing, Gemini informed regulators that it expects the wind-down plan to be completed in 1H 2026 and to book about $11,000,000 in pre-tax restructuring and related charges, with “substantially all” recognized in Q1 2026.

The same filing states that Gemini will continue operating in the US and Singapore while exiting other jurisdictions, including the UK, the EU, and Australia.

How Gemini Plans to Close UK, EU, and Australian Accounts

Gemini’s customer-facing support notice set the operational timetable. UK/EEA/AU accounts will transition to withdrawal-only mode on March 5, 2026, and Gemini will close accounts on April 6, 2026.

Gemini’s notice also instructs customers to close any open perpetual positions before March 5, 2026. It warns Gemini may force-close positions at the “prevailing market price” once accounts enter withdrawal-only mode.

“These foreign markets have proven hard to win in for various reasons and we find ourselves stretched thin with a level of organizational and operational complexity that drives our cost structure up and slows us down,” Gemini co-founders Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss wrote.

The execution risk sits in offboarding friction. Gemini’s notice flags a 7-day approval cycle for new withdrawal addresses for some users. It cites Travel Rule-style self-hosted wallet attestations for EU customers as a gating item before March 5.

What Gemini’s Staff Cut Means for the Industry

The SEC filing pins a dated cost and completion schedule to Gemini’s retrenchment. This matters for desks because it changes venue access, collateral mobility, and basis execution in UK/EU/AU time zones between March 5 and April 6, 2026.

As of Feb. 5, shortly after the announcement, Gemini Space Station Inc. shares (GEMI) saw a drop of 7%.

Gemini Space Station shares price | Source: Yahoo Finance

Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $67,445 (over 8% down in 24h) during the disclosure window.

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The cryptocurrency market is in a downfall and crypto liquidations have already surpassed $1.45 billion in the last 24 hours, making it the fourth-worst day in the past three months by 24-hour liquidation size.

As of this writing, over 311,000 traders saw their positions being flushed out, with the largest single liquidation coming from the BTC/USDT pair on Hyperliquid’s competitor, Aster, for $11.36 million in nominal value. Coinspeaker retrieved this data from CoinGlass on February 5 at 5:30 p.m. UTC.

Liquidation heatmap and total liquidations as of February 5, 2026 | Source: CoinGlass

Long positions were the most affected ones, accounting for $1.24 billion out of the $1.45 billion recorded so far. Bitcoin BTC $65 340 24h volatility: 11.5% Market cap: $1.31 T Vol. 24h: $116.64 B leads the liquidations by a large margin, totaling $738.83 million—two times more than Ethereum ETH $1 918 24h volatility: 11.3% Market cap: $232.00 B Vol. 24h: $55.40 B at $337.45 million in second place. Solana SOL $81.40 24h volatility: 11.9% Market cap: $46.16 B Vol. 24h: $9.74 B has the third-largest liquidations at $77.28 million.

Notably, most of the liquidation events happened in the last 12 hours as this data approaches $1 billion. $646 million were liquidated in the last 4 hours alone and $85 million in the past hour of this data collection.

A historical chart from CoinGlass shows this as the fourth-largest daily liquidation event in the last 90 days, only losing to data from January 29, November 20 (2025), and January 30, in order.

Cryptocurrency liquidation history (90D), as of Feb. 5, 2026 | Source: CoinGlass

Analysts Warn of Further Downside as BTC, ETH, SOL Plunge

All three cryptocurrencies with the largest recorded liquidations today have lost important price support levels during this crash caused by a long squeeze. They have now entered bear market territory and could visit lower levels in the following days and weeks if they do not recover from this fall. A recovery would mark a chart deviation and invalidate the bearish landscape.

Precisely, BTC was trading at $66,650, ETH at $1,960, and SOL at $83 per coin and tokens.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana 1D price charts, as of February 5, 2026 | Source: TradingView

Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 crisis, warns Bitcoin could replicate its 2021-2022 collapse pattern, potentially dropping to $50,000 or lower, as Coinspeaker reported. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin analyst known as PlanB highlighted four possible bear market scenarios that could play out in the following days.

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Circle and Polymarket announced a partnership today that will bring native USDC to the prediction market over the next few months, replacing the bridged stablecoin version traders currently use.

Polymarket runs entirely on Bridged USDC (USDC.e) through Polygon right now. Native USDC comes directly from Circle’s regulated entities and can be redeemed one-to-one for US dollars. Bridged tokens need intermediary protocols to move between blockchains, creating extra steps, issues and costs. Native versions eliminate that middleman, making transactions faster and more reliable for users trading billions monthly.

Some crypto analysts on X say that with this upgrade, Polymarket is eliminating bridging risk. It is well known in the industry that cross-chain bridges are the weakest link in hacking blockchains.

Circle 🤝 @Polymarket

Circle has partnered with Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, to support the next evolution of onchain financial markets.

This partnership focuses on: → Bringing transparent, fully-reserved stablecoin infrastructure to prediction markets… pic.twitter.com/5lNfUPG3xu

— Circle (@circle) February 5, 2026

“Circle has built some of the most critical infrastructure in crypto, and partnering with them is an important step in strengthening prediction markets,” said Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket, in Circle’s announcement. “Using USDC supports a consistent, dollar-denominated settlement standard that enhances market integrity and reliability as participation on the platform continues to grow.”

Polymarket Volume Growth Pushes Upgrade

Polymarket handled $3 billion in trading volume on Polygon during October 2025 with over 338,000 traders, and more than $22 billion in notional trading across the first eleven months of 2025—a 57% increase from 2024. Monthly volume stood at $7.66 billion in January 2026, according to The Block data, making it the second-largest prediction market worldwide.

Currently, Kalshi is the largest prediction market, with $9.55 billion in volume over the last month, likely driven by its alliance with Coinbase.

Monthly volume for Polymarket and Kalshi | Source: The Block data

Other platforms made similar switches in 2025 to improve liquidity and reduce settlement friction, as did the Aptos blockchain. Each migration streamlines how money moves through these systems.

The shift positions Polymarket closer to the settlement standards that major financial institutions expect. With regulators watching crypto prediction markets more closely, even jurisdictions like Portugal ordering a stop to political betting, standardized stablecoin infrastructure provides the platform with a stronger foundation as it scales toward mainstream finance.

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Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has recently criticized the lack of originality across the Layer-2 and blockchain scaling ecosystem. In his latest blog post, Buterin argued that the space has become overly reliant on launching near-identical, EVM-based networks. He stressed the need for meaningful innovation in new and upcoming chains.

Vitalik Buterin Says No to Copy-Paste EVM Chains

Vitalik Buterin shared the state of new EVM chains coming to the market. The industry needs to look beyond launching yet another EVM-based chain with an optimistic bridge to Ethereum. Buterin’s comments come just as he has been constantly selling ETH recently.

He compared the current developments to the early DeFi governance era. Back then, repeated forks of protocols, such as Compound, limited genuine innovation. According to Buterin, this approach has “sapped imagination” and pushed infrastructure development into a dead end.

He was particularly critical of EVM chains that operate without a meaningful connection to Ethereum. Buterin stressed that the ecosystem does not need additional standalone Layer-1 networks.

He added that Ethereum’s base layer is already scaling and will continue to deliver significantly more EVM-compatible blockspace. While not unlimited, he said, Ethereum will be able to support a broad range of applications.

Ethereum Co-Founder Stresses the Need for Innovation

The Ethereum co-founder said that developers should put greater focus on systems that deliver genuinely new capabilities. He also pointed out specific areas such as privacy-preserving architectures, ultra-low-latency execution, and application-specific performance optimizations.

Vitalik Buterin criticized projects that market themselves as closely tied to Ethereum while maintaining only limited or superficial connections to the network. Buterin noted that teams should not use the Ethereum connection only for marketing purposes, but should be transparent about their association with the project.

On the other hand, Buterin has raised concerns about decision-making within the Ethereum ecosystem. Previously, he called for a shift away from informal, sentiment-driven governance toward more structured and accountable processes.

In the latest announcement, Buterin has been working with early Ethereum contributors, aka “OGs,” towards a new security initiative. Theinitiative consists of a $220 million in funds that have remained locked since the 2016 TheDAO hack. The goal behind this project is to repurpose the idle assets into a dedicated security fund.

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Largest stablecoin Tether has hit an All-time High (ATH) on its circulating supply. The dollar-pegged stablecoin USDT recorded expansion to a record $187.3 billion in market capitalization in Q4, 2025. This is notable, given the bearish conditions in the broader crypto market following October’s liquidation season. There are questions about further unpegging.

Tether Records Multiple Milestones

The growing number of stablecoins from competitors has not been able to displace the coin. The broader crypto market experienced a major liquidation event on Oct. 10, triggered by the conversations around the US-China tariff war.

Upon this event, the market cap of Circle’s USDC, the second-largest stablecoin, saw some fluctuations in the rest of Q4. It later closed the period unchanged to a large extent. Also, Ethena’s synthetic dollar USDe, which secured the third position among stablecoins on CoinMarketCap, saw a 57% drawdown.

While its rivals struggled, the average number of monthly active USDt wallets spiked to 24.8 million. This represents 70% of all wallets holding stablecoins, while quarterly transfer volume jumped as high as $4.4 trillion. The number of onchain transfers increased to 2.2 billion.

Tether’s total reserves stood at $192.9 billion by the close of Q4 2025. This was a notable increase, considering that it was just $11.7 billion from the previous quarter. Net equity recorded was around $6.3 billion.

USDT Unpegging Raises Questions

Amid these interesting reports, USDT is at risk of unpegging from $1. It recently went to $0.9980, marking its weakest peg in more than 5 years.

Red alert ‼️ if there is further unpegging https://t.co/PraiJ9mazv

— bill morgan (@Belisarius2020) February 5, 2026

 

On this basis, some analysts are beginning to believe that a full untethering could hit soon. Should this be the case, it could impact negatively on the broader crypto market. The extent of the potential downtrend is tied to the more than 87% of trading volume that flows through USDT.

Meanwhile, USDT was officially recognized in Q4 2025 as an Accepted Fiat-Referenced Token (AFRT) by the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM). This meant that the stablecoin is officially available for use on multiple blockchains, including Aptos, Celo, Cosmos, Kaia, Near, Polkadot, Tezos, TON, and TRON.

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World Liberty Financial, the crypto venture of the Trump family, is now facing a House probe over the reported $500 million deal with an Abu Dhabi-linked entity. The probe also involves World Liberty Financial’s dollar-pegged USD1 stablecoin. As part of the deal, the entity has reportedly acquired 49% in Trump’s crypto venture.

US House Launches Probe into World Liberty Financial

Rep. Ro Khanna of the House Select Committee has sent a formal letter to World Liberty Financial (WLFI) seeking detailed information on its reported deal with the United Arab Emirates.

Khanna requested records of payments and communications related to the transaction. Besides, he also cited concerns over potential conflicts of interest and national security issues tied to US export controls on advanced AI chips.

The inquiry also extends to WLFI’s reported use of USD1 stablecoin in a $2 billion transaction involving crypto exchange Binance. This probe comes following a Wall Street Journal report alleging that WLFI struck a separate, undisclosed $500 million agreement to acquire an equity stake in the exchange.

In his letter, Khanna asked whether $187 million from the UAE deal was directed to businesses linked to the Trump family. Moreover, he also questioned whether additional payments were made to affiliates of WLFI’s co-founders.

When questioned about this UAE deal, US President Donald Trump denied the allegations. He said:

“I don’t know about it. I know that crypto is a big thing. My sons are handling that. My family is handling it, and I guess they get investments from different people.”

Democrats to Have an Ethics Test Before Crypto Bill

Following the Abu Dhabi deal with World Liberty Financial, Democrats are seeking to push efforts for stricter ethics provisions in the crypto market structure bill. Republicans have been voting with support from Democrats. Speaking on it, Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, who is considered a pro-crypto Democrat, said:

“It has created more of a sense of moral urgency for us to have ethics as part of this. The Trump administration has demonstrated the grossest, most egregious corruption from the White House we have ever seen.”

This confrontation between the Democrats and Republicans will test the bipartisan dealmaking between the two parties. Although both Republicans and Democrats have signaled a willingness to move the bill forward, it will be interesting to see whether Trump’s crypto deals cast a shadow over it.

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Bitcoin’s BTC $70 109 24h volatility: 7.6% Market cap: $1.40 T Vol. 24h: $97.29 B selloff has continued, with the price falling another 8% over the past 24 hours to around $70,500.

Market veteran Peter Brandt said the decline may not be over, warning that an additional 10% drop remains possible.

Following the recent slide, Bitcoin has erased more than $500 billion from its market capitalization in less than a month.

Bitcoin Could Drop Further as Coordinated Selling Persists

Bitcoin’s price fell another 7% over the past 24 hours to around $70,000, triggering roughly $400 million in liquidations.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said the recent pullback appears to reflect coordinated selling rather than retail-driven liquidation.

In a post on X, Brandt noted that Bitcoin has logged eight straight days of lower highs and lower lows.

He described the pattern as “campaign selling,” which he believes is driven by large market participants.

Hey crypto followers $BTCThe nature of the decline in Bitcoin (now 8 days of lower lows and highs) has all the finger prints of campaign selling, not retail liquidationSeen this before hundreds of times over the decadesNever know when of course this pattern endsNote to trolls… pic.twitter.com/THGJpez35F

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) February 5, 2026

Brandt added that he has seen similar setups many times over the decades, usually linked to institutional activity rather than retail panic.

Based on those past patterns, he said Bitcoin could fall further toward the $63,800 level.

Has the BTC Bear Market Started?

CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s current downturn is unfolding at a faster pace than the 2022 bear market.

The firm noted that after Bitcoin dropped below its 365-day moving average on November 12, 2025, the price fell 23% over 83 days, compared with a 6% decline over the same period in early 2022.

As per CryptoQuant, the crypto winter of 2025 seems even more aggressive, suggesting a weaker market structure relative to the previous bear phase.

Bear market assessment.Take a look to our latest report:https://t.co/d0kAqsNycT

— Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) February 4, 2026

 

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF data shows that institutional demand for BTC has weakened sharply.

At the same point last year, U.S. spot ETFs had accumulated around 46,000 BTC. In 2026, they have instead become net sellers, offloading roughly 10,600 BTC.

This shift represents a demand gap of about 56,000 BTC compared with 2025 and has contributed to the continued selling pressure in the market.

During the February 4 trading session, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total outflows of $545 million, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) accounting for the largest share at $373 million, according to data from Farside Investors.

IBIT’s share price fell 4% on February 4 and is now down more than 18% since the start of 2026.

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Bitcoin BTC $70 109 24h volatility: 7.6% Market cap: $1.40 T Vol. 24h: $97.29 B slipped below $70,000 on February 5 as analyst PlanB confirmed the crypto market is firmly in a bear phase.

Traders are now searching for a potential bottom. He outlined four possible price scenarios based on past cycles and market structure.

Bitcoin closed January near $78,000, 40% down from its October peak of $126,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed at 49 and placed Bitcoin in a downtrend zone.

Similar RSI conditions came during previous bear phases in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

IMO there are 4 bitcoin bear market scenarios:1) -80% from ATH $126k => $25k2) down to 200w MA / realized price => $50k-60k3) down to just above previous ATH => $70k4) yesterday's $72.9k was the bottom

I discuss these scenario's in my new video:👉 https://t.co/mXSxJK9LLx

— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 4, 2026

 

PlanB described four possible cases for the ongoing downturn. The worst case would follow previous deep crashes, when BTC fell about 80% from its peak.

If it happens, the cryptocurrency could see a drop to $25,000.

A second scenario suggests that BTC could slide toward the 200-week moving average. This results in a possible price drop between $50,000 and $60,000.

A third and milder drop would see Bitcoin holding just above its previous cycle high near $69,000 to $70,000.

The last scenario suggests that the recent low near $72,900 may already be the bottom.

PlanB noted that the last bull phase was weaker compared to prior cycles, which could lead to a shallower drop this time.

He added that the traditional 4-year cycle remains intact, though the timing of peaks and troughs may shift.

Crypto Winter Conditions

The total crypto market cap has fallen about 25% over the past month, while stablecoin dominance has climbed to a 2.5 year high.

This suggests investors are avoiding deploying fresh capital as analysts confirm crypto winter arrival.

Stablecoin dominance has reached a 2.5-year high.

This looks really bad. pic.twitter.com/AbQ8Uc73N3

— Ted (@TedPillows) February 4, 2026

 

Data shows that institutional investors, including Trend Research and the Bhutan government, have sold portions of their crypto holdings.

The Bhutan government is selling $BTC. pic.twitter.com/JNwNU6Twye

— Ted (@TedPillows) February 4, 2026

 

Bitcoin has broken below the 100-week moving average support. In past cycles, similar breaks led to quick drops toward the 200-week level before any sustainable recovery.

Some analysts argue the cycle may be progressing faster than usual. Bitcoin topped earlier than expected in October, and the decline since then has been sharp.

Bear markets have historically lasted around 12 months, but this faster pace raises the chance that a bottom could form between June and August.

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