chris_tahir
Market strategist
CMT Lv.2
CFP®
CFD & crypto trader
Risk first mindset
Translated 🇮🇩 Bitcoin whitepaper
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Extreme fear or extreme opportunity? $BTC and $ETH hit a sentiment floor
The crypto market is currently navigating a period of profound quiet. While the 'Sell America' narrative has cooled, we are seeing a fascinating divergence between record-low sentiment and the return of institutional speculative bids. 📉
Here is your breakdown of the current market structure as of Feb 2026:
🥶 Fear at a Standstill: The Fear and Greed Index (FGI) has plunged below 10, its lowest level in over a year. Historically, this 'extreme fear' zone has been a beacon for bargain hunters and contrarian speculators looking for a local bottom.
🏦 The Institutional Trickle: US-listed spot ETFs saw a return to green with over 200 mln USD in net inflows. While bitcoin ETFs led with 145 mln USD, the moves appear primarily speculative rather than a shift in long-term conviction.
💵 Dollar Divergence: Interestingly, the broader selloff in the US dollar has failed to provide its typical 'risk-on' tailwind for bitcoin and ether. This decoupling suggests that internal crypto catalysts—or the lack thereof—are currently the primary price drivers.
⚖️ LTH Distribution: While the pace of selling from long-term holders (LTHs) has slightly receded, it remains near one-year highs. This persistent overhead supply is keeping 'Illiquid Supply' near three-week lows, capping any immediate breakout potential.
🛡️ Momentum Shift: The receding outflows have effectively 'stopped the bleed', capping the recent bearish momentum. However, without a fresh positive catalyst, the sustainability of this recovery remains the big question mark for the weeks ahead.
The Bottom Line: We are in a 'wait-and-see' phase where institutional speculative buying is meeting legacy holder distribution. The sentiment floor is here, but the launchpad hasn't been built yet.
Are you looking at these 'Extreme Fear' levels as a generational entry point, or are you waiting for more macro clarity?
#bitcoin #ether #sentiment #etf
The crypto market is currently navigating a period of profound quiet. While the 'Sell America' narrative has cooled, we are seeing a fascinating divergence between record-low sentiment and the return of institutional speculative bids. 📉
Here is your breakdown of the current market structure as of Feb 2026:
🥶 Fear at a Standstill: The Fear and Greed Index (FGI) has plunged below 10, its lowest level in over a year. Historically, this 'extreme fear' zone has been a beacon for bargain hunters and contrarian speculators looking for a local bottom.
🏦 The Institutional Trickle: US-listed spot ETFs saw a return to green with over 200 mln USD in net inflows. While bitcoin ETFs led with 145 mln USD, the moves appear primarily speculative rather than a shift in long-term conviction.
💵 Dollar Divergence: Interestingly, the broader selloff in the US dollar has failed to provide its typical 'risk-on' tailwind for bitcoin and ether. This decoupling suggests that internal crypto catalysts—or the lack thereof—are currently the primary price drivers.
⚖️ LTH Distribution: While the pace of selling from long-term holders (LTHs) has slightly receded, it remains near one-year highs. This persistent overhead supply is keeping 'Illiquid Supply' near three-week lows, capping any immediate breakout potential.
🛡️ Momentum Shift: The receding outflows have effectively 'stopped the bleed', capping the recent bearish momentum. However, without a fresh positive catalyst, the sustainability of this recovery remains the big question mark for the weeks ahead.
The Bottom Line: We are in a 'wait-and-see' phase where institutional speculative buying is meeting legacy holder distribution. The sentiment floor is here, but the launchpad hasn't been built yet.
Are you looking at these 'Extreme Fear' levels as a generational entry point, or are you waiting for more macro clarity?
#bitcoin #ether #sentiment #etf
After having the money, the body is wrecked and the money is for paying the medication.
Crypto PM
·
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BullishAfter my chair, I sold my bed to get more cash to buy $ETH dip 😂
Be careful what you wish for.
Bitcoin $BTC is just holding above its longterm support channel.
Pray for it to hold, or else we are cooked
#WhaleDeRiskETH
Pray for it to hold, or else we are cooked
#WhaleDeRiskETH
$BTC and $ETH face a 'liquidity vacuum' following massive derivatives flush
The crypto market is entering mid-February in a state of suspended animation. Despite a modest price recovery toward the end of last week, the underlying market structure remains fragile following one of the most significant deleveraging events in recent months. 🌊
Here is the breakdown of the current market pulse:
🏛️ Fed Watch: Market expectations for a March rate hold have softened slightly to 84.2%. However, this sentiment is on a knife-edge, with all eyes on this week’s high-impact US NFP and CPI data releases to provide a clearer direction.
📉 The Great Flush: Last week saw a staggering 2.9 bln USD in derivatives liquidations, including nearly 2 bln USD in long positions. This massive wipeout of leverage—the largest since October 2025—has effectively 'dried out' the market's immediate momentum.
🏦 ETF Synchronicity: US-listed spot ETFs recorded net outflows of 520 mln USD. With 350 mln USD leaving bitcoin and 170 mln USD leaving ether, it appears institutional sentiment is moving in lockstep across both major assets.
🔄 Whale Activity: Despite the negative price action, the largest whale cohorts (>10 mln USD) moved 14.6k BTC off exchanges. While structurally bullish for supply, exchange balances still remain elevated compared to late 2025 levels.
⚖️ A Market in Limbo: Without a clear positive catalyst to fill the void left by the recent liquidity flush, prices are struggling to find a sustainable trend, even after the 'forced selling' has subsided.
The Bottom Line: We are currently in a directionless 'wait-and-see' phase. The market is cleaner after the liquidation event, but it lacks the fresh capital and conviction needed to spark a meaningful leg up.
Do you think the recent flush has provided a healthy reset, or are we entering a period of prolonged sideways chop?
#bitcoin #ether #fomc #marketanalysis #liquidation
Data sources: Exness FMS, CME Group, Glassnode, CoinGlass
The crypto market is entering mid-February in a state of suspended animation. Despite a modest price recovery toward the end of last week, the underlying market structure remains fragile following one of the most significant deleveraging events in recent months. 🌊
Here is the breakdown of the current market pulse:
🏛️ Fed Watch: Market expectations for a March rate hold have softened slightly to 84.2%. However, this sentiment is on a knife-edge, with all eyes on this week’s high-impact US NFP and CPI data releases to provide a clearer direction.
📉 The Great Flush: Last week saw a staggering 2.9 bln USD in derivatives liquidations, including nearly 2 bln USD in long positions. This massive wipeout of leverage—the largest since October 2025—has effectively 'dried out' the market's immediate momentum.
🏦 ETF Synchronicity: US-listed spot ETFs recorded net outflows of 520 mln USD. With 350 mln USD leaving bitcoin and 170 mln USD leaving ether, it appears institutional sentiment is moving in lockstep across both major assets.
🔄 Whale Activity: Despite the negative price action, the largest whale cohorts (>10 mln USD) moved 14.6k BTC off exchanges. While structurally bullish for supply, exchange balances still remain elevated compared to late 2025 levels.
⚖️ A Market in Limbo: Without a clear positive catalyst to fill the void left by the recent liquidity flush, prices are struggling to find a sustainable trend, even after the 'forced selling' has subsided.
The Bottom Line: We are currently in a directionless 'wait-and-see' phase. The market is cleaner after the liquidation event, but it lacks the fresh capital and conviction needed to spark a meaningful leg up.
Do you think the recent flush has provided a healthy reset, or are we entering a period of prolonged sideways chop?
#bitcoin #ether #fomc #marketanalysis #liquidation
Data sources: Exness FMS, CME Group, Glassnode, CoinGlass
$BTC and $ETH stage a 'SAFU' recovery: A strategic bounce or a dead cat?
The crypto market just threw a curveball. After a brutal plunge to 60,000 USD and 1,750 USD, bitcoin and ether staged a sharp 20% reversal. While the move lacked a broad macroeconomic trigger, a massive strategic play by Binance appears to have provided the spark. 🛡️
Here is what is driving the latest market shift:
🤖 The SAFU Injection: Binance’s Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) converted 250 mln USD of stablecoins into 3.6k BTC, bringing their total holdings to 6,230 BTC. With a commitment to convert up to 1 bln USD over the next 30 days, this 'buyer of last resort' narrative has reignited optimism.
🎯 The Psychological Floor: The bounce occurred as bitcoin hit the critical 60,000 USD psychological level—remarkably close to the Median Realized Price of 62,000 USD. This proximity acted as a magnet for bargain hunters looking to capitalize on perceived 'undervalued' levels.
🏦 Mixed ETF Sentiment: Institutional flows flipped back to net positive at 310 mln USD. However, the enthusiasm is uneven: bitcoin ETFs saw over 330 mln USD in inflows, while ether ETFs recorded 21 mln USD in redemptions, highlighting a diverging preference among asset managers.
⚠️ Sustainability Concerns: Despite the green candles, the lack of a new macro narrative has some analysts labeling this a 'Dead Cat Bounce.' Without sustained organic demand, existing selling pressure could still re-emerge.
The Bottom Line: Binance’s billion-dollar conversion plan provides a significant liquidity floor for the next month. However, whether this is a true trend reversal or a temporary relief rally depends on the market’s ability to find a catalyst beyond exchange-driven purchases.
Do you think the SAFU fund's billion-dollar commitment is enough to turn the tide, or is this just a brief respite before further downside?
#bitcoin #ether #binance #safu #marketrecovery
The crypto market just threw a curveball. After a brutal plunge to 60,000 USD and 1,750 USD, bitcoin and ether staged a sharp 20% reversal. While the move lacked a broad macroeconomic trigger, a massive strategic play by Binance appears to have provided the spark. 🛡️
Here is what is driving the latest market shift:
🤖 The SAFU Injection: Binance’s Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) converted 250 mln USD of stablecoins into 3.6k BTC, bringing their total holdings to 6,230 BTC. With a commitment to convert up to 1 bln USD over the next 30 days, this 'buyer of last resort' narrative has reignited optimism.
🎯 The Psychological Floor: The bounce occurred as bitcoin hit the critical 60,000 USD psychological level—remarkably close to the Median Realized Price of 62,000 USD. This proximity acted as a magnet for bargain hunters looking to capitalize on perceived 'undervalued' levels.
🏦 Mixed ETF Sentiment: Institutional flows flipped back to net positive at 310 mln USD. However, the enthusiasm is uneven: bitcoin ETFs saw over 330 mln USD in inflows, while ether ETFs recorded 21 mln USD in redemptions, highlighting a diverging preference among asset managers.
⚠️ Sustainability Concerns: Despite the green candles, the lack of a new macro narrative has some analysts labeling this a 'Dead Cat Bounce.' Without sustained organic demand, existing selling pressure could still re-emerge.
The Bottom Line: Binance’s billion-dollar conversion plan provides a significant liquidity floor for the next month. However, whether this is a true trend reversal or a temporary relief rally depends on the market’s ability to find a catalyst beyond exchange-driven purchases.
Do you think the SAFU fund's billion-dollar commitment is enough to turn the tide, or is this just a brief respite before further downside?
#bitcoin #ether #binance #safu #marketrecovery
$BTC and $ETH hit multi-year lows as the US #Treasury clarifies its 'no backstop' stance
The 'no backstop' reality has hit the markets hard. Following clear signals from the US Treasury that investors are on their own, we are seeing a significant acceleration in liquidations and institutional outflows, bringing prices to their lowest levels since late 2024. 🏛️
Here are the key insights into the current market structure:
🏛️ Government Hands-Off: The US Treasury’s recent comments emphasizing that investors bear their own risks has removed the hope of a 'crypto backstop,' triggering a sharp move to price levels not seen since Nov 2024.
💸 Institutional Retreat: US-listed ETFs are seeing a massive exodus, with over 620 mln USD in total outflows. Bitcoin ETFs bore the brunt with 545 mln USD in redemptions, signaling a broad cooling of institutional appetite.
🐳 Whale Pressure: Large entities are moving back to exchanges. We have seen net inflows of nearly 10.8k BTC over the last week, adding significant sell-side pressure to a fragile order book.
📉 The Loss Spiral: Realized losses have swollen to a staggering 1.7 bln USD on a 7-day average. With short-term holders now averaging 97 mln USD in weekly losses, the urgency to 'cut and run' is reaching a boiling point.
⚖️ LTH Distribution: Long-term holders are selling at their highest pace in a year. When the most seasoned hands in the market start exiting, it suggests a significant structural shift in the current cycle.
The Bottom Line: We are in a capitulation phase where even the most resilient cohorts are feeling the pressure. Without a clear 'buyer of last resort,' the market is searching for a fundamental floor.
Are we seeing the final flush of the 'weak hands,' or is this the beginning of a longer 'no-backstop' winter? Let's discuss below.
#bitcoin #ether #ustreasury #bessent
The 'no backstop' reality has hit the markets hard. Following clear signals from the US Treasury that investors are on their own, we are seeing a significant acceleration in liquidations and institutional outflows, bringing prices to their lowest levels since late 2024. 🏛️
Here are the key insights into the current market structure:
🏛️ Government Hands-Off: The US Treasury’s recent comments emphasizing that investors bear their own risks has removed the hope of a 'crypto backstop,' triggering a sharp move to price levels not seen since Nov 2024.
💸 Institutional Retreat: US-listed ETFs are seeing a massive exodus, with over 620 mln USD in total outflows. Bitcoin ETFs bore the brunt with 545 mln USD in redemptions, signaling a broad cooling of institutional appetite.
🐳 Whale Pressure: Large entities are moving back to exchanges. We have seen net inflows of nearly 10.8k BTC over the last week, adding significant sell-side pressure to a fragile order book.
📉 The Loss Spiral: Realized losses have swollen to a staggering 1.7 bln USD on a 7-day average. With short-term holders now averaging 97 mln USD in weekly losses, the urgency to 'cut and run' is reaching a boiling point.
⚖️ LTH Distribution: Long-term holders are selling at their highest pace in a year. When the most seasoned hands in the market start exiting, it suggests a significant structural shift in the current cycle.
The Bottom Line: We are in a capitulation phase where even the most resilient cohorts are feeling the pressure. Without a clear 'buyer of last resort,' the market is searching for a fundamental floor.
Are we seeing the final flush of the 'weak hands,' or is this the beginning of a longer 'no-backstop' winter? Let's discuss below.
#bitcoin #ether #ustreasury #bessent
$BTC and $ETH face liquidity headwinds as institutional sentiment remains mixed
The digital asset market is currently navigating a period of 'quiet pressure'. Without a clear positive catalyst to spark momentum, we are seeing a shift in onchain dynamics that suggests a more cautious outlook from major players. 📉
Here is a breakdown of the current market pulse:
⚖️ Mixed ETF Signals: Institutional sentiment is diverging. While investors pulled 272 mln USD from bitcoin ETFs, ether ETFs saw a modest 14 mln USD in deposits. This 'split' sentiment is capping any potential for a broad market recovery.
🐻 LTH Distribution: Long-term holders (LTHs) have further accelerated their selling. This sustained distribution from 'smart money' continues to provide a heavy supply overhang that is difficult for the market to absorb.
💧 Liquidity Squeeze: The 'Illiquid Supply' has dropped to a two-week low, signaling that more coins are moving back into active circulation. When coins move to exchanges during a downturn, it typically indicates a higher readiness to liquidate.
🏦 Stablecoin Exodus: A significant withdrawal of stablecoins from exchanges is perhaps the most critical signal. With less 'dry powder' available on trading platforms, the immediate purchasing power required to drive a price reversal is drying up.
🤖 DATCo Support: Despite the gloom, Digital Asset Companies (DATCos) are continuing to make strategic purchases. While these 'corporate bids' provide some support, they aren't yet enough to offset the broader institutional and LTH selling pressure.
The Bottom Line: We are in a 'wait-and-see' phase. Between the drying up of stablecoin liquidity and the acceleration of LTH selling, the market is searching for a catalyst that has yet to arrive.
Are you holding onto your 'dry powder' for a deeper correction, or do you see the current DATCo buying as a signal of a local bottom?
#bitcoin #ether #cryptoanalysis #liquidity #onchain
The digital asset market is currently navigating a period of 'quiet pressure'. Without a clear positive catalyst to spark momentum, we are seeing a shift in onchain dynamics that suggests a more cautious outlook from major players. 📉
Here is a breakdown of the current market pulse:
⚖️ Mixed ETF Signals: Institutional sentiment is diverging. While investors pulled 272 mln USD from bitcoin ETFs, ether ETFs saw a modest 14 mln USD in deposits. This 'split' sentiment is capping any potential for a broad market recovery.
🐻 LTH Distribution: Long-term holders (LTHs) have further accelerated their selling. This sustained distribution from 'smart money' continues to provide a heavy supply overhang that is difficult for the market to absorb.
💧 Liquidity Squeeze: The 'Illiquid Supply' has dropped to a two-week low, signaling that more coins are moving back into active circulation. When coins move to exchanges during a downturn, it typically indicates a higher readiness to liquidate.
🏦 Stablecoin Exodus: A significant withdrawal of stablecoins from exchanges is perhaps the most critical signal. With less 'dry powder' available on trading platforms, the immediate purchasing power required to drive a price reversal is drying up.
🤖 DATCo Support: Despite the gloom, Digital Asset Companies (DATCos) are continuing to make strategic purchases. While these 'corporate bids' provide some support, they aren't yet enough to offset the broader institutional and LTH selling pressure.
The Bottom Line: We are in a 'wait-and-see' phase. Between the drying up of stablecoin liquidity and the acceleration of LTH selling, the market is searching for a catalyst that has yet to arrive.
Are you holding onto your 'dry powder' for a deeper correction, or do you see the current DATCo buying as a signal of a local bottom?
#bitcoin #ether #cryptoanalysis #liquidity #onchain
Bitcoin and ether show resilience amid hawkish Fed signals and stablecoin optimism
The digital asset market is navigating a complex landscape of shifting macro expectations and renewed sector-specific catalysts. Despite a 'hawkish' tilt from Fed officials regarding future leadership, crypto assets are holding their ground as the 'institutional bid' remains dynamic. 🛡️
Here is your breakdown of the current market pulse:
🦅 Hawkish Headwinds: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments following the Warsh nomination have shifted expectations. Markets now price in a 91% probability of a rate hold at the next FOMC meeting, up from 86.6% yesterday.💵 Stablecoin Yield Spark: A wave of optimism is sweeping the sector following high-level discussions regarding stablecoin yields. This focus on market structure is providing a much-needed bullish narrative to offset macro pressure.🏦 ETF Divergence: US-listed spot ETFs saw a net investment of 558 mln USD. However, the story is split: bitcoin ETFs captured over 581 mln USD, while ether ETFs saw nearly 3 mln USD in redemptions, with BlackRock’s ETHA seeing 82 mln USD in outflows.🔄 Whale Activity: In a significant reversal, exchanges saw net withdrawals of over 12.3k BTC, dominated by the largest cohorts (>10 mln USD). This suggests 'smart money' is capitalizing on price levels to move assets back to cold storage.⚠️ Supply Pressure: Despite the withdrawals, 'Illiquid Supply' dropped as older coins were reactivated. Long-term holders (LTHs) are currently distributing at their highest pace in a year, creating a persistent supply overhang.📉 STH Vulnerability: Short-term holders (STHs) are feeling the squeeze, with 7-day average losses swelling to over 50.7 mln USD. This 'underwater' status remains a primary risk for potential liquidation events if momentum stalls.
The Bottom Line: We are in a tug-of-war between institutional accumulation in bitcoin and legacy holder distribution. While regulatory progress on stablecoins provides hope, the hawkish Fed stance and STH losses suggest that the recovery momentum faces a steep climb.
Are we witnessing a structural rotation into bitcoin, or is the ether outflow from BlackRock a signal of broader institutional hesitation?
#bitcoin #ether #fomc #stablecoins #marketanalysis
$BTC $ETH
Here is your breakdown of the current market pulse:
🦅 Hawkish Headwinds: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments following the Warsh nomination have shifted expectations. Markets now price in a 91% probability of a rate hold at the next FOMC meeting, up from 86.6% yesterday.💵 Stablecoin Yield Spark: A wave of optimism is sweeping the sector following high-level discussions regarding stablecoin yields. This focus on market structure is providing a much-needed bullish narrative to offset macro pressure.🏦 ETF Divergence: US-listed spot ETFs saw a net investment of 558 mln USD. However, the story is split: bitcoin ETFs captured over 581 mln USD, while ether ETFs saw nearly 3 mln USD in redemptions, with BlackRock’s ETHA seeing 82 mln USD in outflows.🔄 Whale Activity: In a significant reversal, exchanges saw net withdrawals of over 12.3k BTC, dominated by the largest cohorts (>10 mln USD). This suggests 'smart money' is capitalizing on price levels to move assets back to cold storage.⚠️ Supply Pressure: Despite the withdrawals, 'Illiquid Supply' dropped as older coins were reactivated. Long-term holders (LTHs) are currently distributing at their highest pace in a year, creating a persistent supply overhang.📉 STH Vulnerability: Short-term holders (STHs) are feeling the squeeze, with 7-day average losses swelling to over 50.7 mln USD. This 'underwater' status remains a primary risk for potential liquidation events if momentum stalls.
The Bottom Line: We are in a tug-of-war between institutional accumulation in bitcoin and legacy holder distribution. While regulatory progress on stablecoins provides hope, the hawkish Fed stance and STH losses suggest that the recovery momentum faces a steep climb.
Are we witnessing a structural rotation into bitcoin, or is the ether outflow from BlackRock a signal of broader institutional hesitation?
#bitcoin #ether #fomc #stablecoins #marketanalysis
$BTC $ETH
The market sentiment just pulled a violent U-turn. The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the future Fed Chair has sent a lightning bolt through the risk-asset landscape, forcing a massive repricing of interest rate expectations for 2026. 🏛️
Here are the critical takeaways from this sudden market shift:
🦅 The Warsh Factor: The nomination of a perceived hawk has decimated short-term optimism. Bitcoin briefly fell below 75,000 USD and ether below 2,500 USD as traders braced for a more restrictive monetary policy.
📉 Yield Pivot: Market expectations have shifted from 2-3 rate cuts down to a potential 1-2 cuts this year. All eyes are now on this week’s data releases to see if the Fed's trajectory has permanently altered.
💸 ETF Exodus: Fear is tangible in the flows. US-listed ETFs saw over 1.8 bln USD in redemptions, with bitcoin ETFs losing 1.5 bln USD. BlackRock’s upcoming 'Bitcoin Premium Income' ETF—a covered call strategy—signals that even the giants are preparing for a sideways or bearish environment.
🔄 Exchange Inflow Surge: Investors deposited over 12.7k BTC into exchanges, pushing the total balance to a two-month high of over 3 mln BTC. This unanimous inflow across all cohorts indicates a strong collective intent to liquidate.
⚖️ Holder Hand-Off: We are seeing a massive structural shift. Long-term holders (LTHs) reduced their positions by 372k BTC in late 2025, while short-term holders (STHs) grew their holdings by nearly 25%. This 'weak hand' accumulation often precedes heightened volatility.
The Bottom Line: While we are seeing a minor recovery this morning, the lack of a 'dovish' catalyst suggests this may be a technical rebound for bargain hunters rather than a sustainable trend reversal.
How are you repositioning your portfolio in light of the new 'Hawkish' Fed narrative?
#bitcoin #ether #FOMC #fed #marketanalysis
$BTC $ETH
Here are the critical takeaways from this sudden market shift:
🦅 The Warsh Factor: The nomination of a perceived hawk has decimated short-term optimism. Bitcoin briefly fell below 75,000 USD and ether below 2,500 USD as traders braced for a more restrictive monetary policy.
📉 Yield Pivot: Market expectations have shifted from 2-3 rate cuts down to a potential 1-2 cuts this year. All eyes are now on this week’s data releases to see if the Fed's trajectory has permanently altered.
💸 ETF Exodus: Fear is tangible in the flows. US-listed ETFs saw over 1.8 bln USD in redemptions, with bitcoin ETFs losing 1.5 bln USD. BlackRock’s upcoming 'Bitcoin Premium Income' ETF—a covered call strategy—signals that even the giants are preparing for a sideways or bearish environment.
🔄 Exchange Inflow Surge: Investors deposited over 12.7k BTC into exchanges, pushing the total balance to a two-month high of over 3 mln BTC. This unanimous inflow across all cohorts indicates a strong collective intent to liquidate.
⚖️ Holder Hand-Off: We are seeing a massive structural shift. Long-term holders (LTHs) reduced their positions by 372k BTC in late 2025, while short-term holders (STHs) grew their holdings by nearly 25%. This 'weak hand' accumulation often precedes heightened volatility.
The Bottom Line: While we are seeing a minor recovery this morning, the lack of a 'dovish' catalyst suggests this may be a technical rebound for bargain hunters rather than a sustainable trend reversal.
How are you repositioning your portfolio in light of the new 'Hawkish' Fed narrative?
#bitcoin #ether #FOMC #fed #marketanalysis
$BTC $ETH
BTC and ETH bounce as the dollar wobbles ahead of the Fed
Is the dollar's pain becoming crypto's gain? As we head into today's FOMC meeting, the narrative is shifting from fear to a calculated 'bargain hunt'. 📈
Here is the strategic breakdown of the current market recovery:
📉 The Dollar Pivot: Recent comments from the administration regarding the strength of the greenback have exerted downward pressure on the dollar, effectively reallocating capital into risk assets like bitcoin and ether.
🏛️ Fed Certainty: The CME FedWatch tool shows that a rate hold is now fully priced in at over 97%. With no immediate rate cut on the horizon, the market is looking toward currency devaluation as the primary driver.
📊 Technical Correction: The recent bounce perfectly coincided with the 'Adjusted Percent Supply in Profit' hitting the 50% mark. This level historically acts as a magnet for bargain hunters speculating on a cycle recovery.
⚠️ A Market in Pain: Despite the green candles, the Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) reveals a sobering reality. Market participants recorded 729 mln USD in losses against only 276 mln USD in profits, suggesting that many are still looking for an exit.
⚖️ Cycle Peak Signals: We are seeing a decline in 'Short-Term Holder Realized Cap HODL Waves'. While subtle, this shift—combined with distribution from long-term holders—suggests the explosive phase of this cycle may be cooling.
The Bottom Line: We are seeing a recovery fueled by dollar weakness rather than fundamental economic strength. Until the NRPL shifts back into net-profit territory, this bounce remains a 'speculative' move.
Are you holding for a full recovery, or is this the 'exit liquidity' you’ve been waiting for?
#bitcoin #ether #fomc #marketanalysis #onchain
$BTC $ETH
Here is the strategic breakdown of the current market recovery:
📉 The Dollar Pivot: Recent comments from the administration regarding the strength of the greenback have exerted downward pressure on the dollar, effectively reallocating capital into risk assets like bitcoin and ether.
🏛️ Fed Certainty: The CME FedWatch tool shows that a rate hold is now fully priced in at over 97%. With no immediate rate cut on the horizon, the market is looking toward currency devaluation as the primary driver.
📊 Technical Correction: The recent bounce perfectly coincided with the 'Adjusted Percent Supply in Profit' hitting the 50% mark. This level historically acts as a magnet for bargain hunters speculating on a cycle recovery.
⚠️ A Market in Pain: Despite the green candles, the Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) reveals a sobering reality. Market participants recorded 729 mln USD in losses against only 276 mln USD in profits, suggesting that many are still looking for an exit.
⚖️ Cycle Peak Signals: We are seeing a decline in 'Short-Term Holder Realized Cap HODL Waves'. While subtle, this shift—combined with distribution from long-term holders—suggests the explosive phase of this cycle may be cooling.
The Bottom Line: We are seeing a recovery fueled by dollar weakness rather than fundamental economic strength. Until the NRPL shifts back into net-profit territory, this bounce remains a 'speculative' move.
Are you holding for a full recovery, or is this the 'exit liquidity' you’ve been waiting for?
#bitcoin #ether #fomc #marketanalysis #onchain
$BTC $ETH
$BTC and $ETH eye recovery as ETF inflows return
The digital asset market is showing signs of resilience this week. Despite a hawkish macro environment, bitcoin and ether have clawed back toward the 90,000 USD and 3,000 USD milestones, respectively. While the 'higher-for-longer' Fed narrative persists, the return of the institutional bid is providing a much-needed floor. 🛡️
Here is a breakdown of the current market shift:
📈 ETF Reversal: After a period of heavy redemptions, US-listed ETFs saw a net inflow of 123.8 mln USD. Interestingly, ether ETFs led the charge with 117 mln USD in fresh capital, spearheaded by Fidelity’s FETH.🏦 ETF Dynamics: BlackRock’s IBIT continues to maintain a steady presence, while the broad recovery in ETF demand suggests that professional investors are buying the dip as safe-haven assets undergo a correction.
🏜️ Liquidity Drought: Onchain data shows investors withdrew over 7.6k BTC from exchanges, pushing 'Illiquid Supply' to its highest level since mid-November. While this is structurally bullish, it often acts as a double-edged sword by amplifying near-term volatility.
⚖️ The LTH Headwind: Long-term holders (LTHs) aren't convinced yet. Distribution from these seasoned wallets has accelerated to levels not seen since mid-August, creating a persistent supply overhang that may cap rapid gains.
The Bottom Line: We are witnessing a classic battle between institutional accumulation and long-term holder distribution. While the "liquidity vacuum" on exchanges could trigger sharp moves, the return of ETF inflows is the stabilizing force to watch.
Do you think the return of the ETF investments is enough to offset the selling pressure from long-term whales?
#bitcoin #ether #cryptoanalysis #etf #marketrecovery
$BTC $ETH
Here is a breakdown of the current market shift:
📈 ETF Reversal: After a period of heavy redemptions, US-listed ETFs saw a net inflow of 123.8 mln USD. Interestingly, ether ETFs led the charge with 117 mln USD in fresh capital, spearheaded by Fidelity’s FETH.🏦 ETF Dynamics: BlackRock’s IBIT continues to maintain a steady presence, while the broad recovery in ETF demand suggests that professional investors are buying the dip as safe-haven assets undergo a correction.
🏜️ Liquidity Drought: Onchain data shows investors withdrew over 7.6k BTC from exchanges, pushing 'Illiquid Supply' to its highest level since mid-November. While this is structurally bullish, it often acts as a double-edged sword by amplifying near-term volatility.
⚖️ The LTH Headwind: Long-term holders (LTHs) aren't convinced yet. Distribution from these seasoned wallets has accelerated to levels not seen since mid-August, creating a persistent supply overhang that may cap rapid gains.
The Bottom Line: We are witnessing a classic battle between institutional accumulation and long-term holder distribution. While the "liquidity vacuum" on exchanges could trigger sharp moves, the return of ETF inflows is the stabilizing force to watch.
Do you think the return of the ETF investments is enough to offset the selling pressure from long-term whales?
#bitcoin #ether #cryptoanalysis #etf #marketrecovery
$BTC $ETH
$BTC and $ETH face institutional retreat ahead of this week's FOMC meeting
The 'risk-off' sentiment is dominating the digital asset landscape as we approach a critical Federal Reserve decision. Between persistent geopolitical friction and a massive shift in ETF flows, the market is navigating a significant period of deleveraging. 🏔️
Here is your breakdown of the current market structure:
🏛️ FOMC Expectations: Market participants are bracing for the Fed to hold rates this week, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 97% probability of no change. The lack of a 'pivot' catalyst is keeping the pressure on speculative assets.🌍 Geopolitical Standoff: Uncertainty regarding the US-Greenland 'dispute' remains unresolved, acting as a persistent weight on global market optimism and pushing investors toward traditional safe havens.
💸 Institutional Redemptions: US-listed ETFs saw nearly 2 bln USD in redemptions recently. BlackRock and Fidelity were hit hardest, with bitcoin outflows of 1.32 bln USD and ether seeing over 600 mln USD in withdrawals. This reflects a sharp sentiment shift in the US regulatory environment.
🔄 Exchange Inflow Surge: We’ve seen a significant spike in exchange deposits, totaling over 18.6k BTC in the last 7 days. Large-scale whales (>10 mln USD) are leading this charge, signaling a broad intention to liquidate positions.
⚖️ Holder Dynamics: Long-term holders are reaccelerating their sell-side distributions. Meanwhile, short-term holders are absorbing this supply but remain largely underwater, increasing the risk of forced liquidations if prices don't stabilize.
The Bottom Line: The combination of a hawkish Fed, heavy institutional selling, and geopolitical noise has left the market in a defensive crouch. Without a fresh positive catalyst, expect volatility to remain skewed to the downside.
Are you de-risking ahead of the FOMC, or do you view this 'Sell America' sentiment as a long-term entry opportunity?
#bitcoin #ether #fomc #etf #cryptoanalysis $BTC $ETH
Here is your breakdown of the current market structure:
🏛️ FOMC Expectations: Market participants are bracing for the Fed to hold rates this week, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 97% probability of no change. The lack of a 'pivot' catalyst is keeping the pressure on speculative assets.🌍 Geopolitical Standoff: Uncertainty regarding the US-Greenland 'dispute' remains unresolved, acting as a persistent weight on global market optimism and pushing investors toward traditional safe havens.
💸 Institutional Redemptions: US-listed ETFs saw nearly 2 bln USD in redemptions recently. BlackRock and Fidelity were hit hardest, with bitcoin outflows of 1.32 bln USD and ether seeing over 600 mln USD in withdrawals. This reflects a sharp sentiment shift in the US regulatory environment.
🔄 Exchange Inflow Surge: We’ve seen a significant spike in exchange deposits, totaling over 18.6k BTC in the last 7 days. Large-scale whales (>10 mln USD) are leading this charge, signaling a broad intention to liquidate positions.
⚖️ Holder Dynamics: Long-term holders are reaccelerating their sell-side distributions. Meanwhile, short-term holders are absorbing this supply but remain largely underwater, increasing the risk of forced liquidations if prices don't stabilize.
The Bottom Line: The combination of a hawkish Fed, heavy institutional selling, and geopolitical noise has left the market in a defensive crouch. Without a fresh positive catalyst, expect volatility to remain skewed to the downside.
Are you de-risking ahead of the FOMC, or do you view this 'Sell America' sentiment as a long-term entry opportunity?
#bitcoin #ether #fomc #etf #cryptoanalysis $BTC $ETH
Regulatory shifts and sticky inflation dampen crypto recovery momentum
The digital asset market remains in a state of cautious consolidation. Even as the headline-grabbing Greenland tensions begin to fade, new structural challenges—ranging from legislative delays in the Senate to a hawkish shift in Fed expectations—are keeping a lid on price action. 📉
Key insights from the current market environment:
⚖️ Regulatory Stalls: Support for the CLARITY Act is fracturing. Major players, including Coinbase, have voiced concerns over revised SEC/CFTC boundaries and expanded Treasury powers, leading to a delay in the Senate Banking Committee markup.🏦 Macro Headwinds: US inflation remains stickier than anticipated. Markets have adjusted their 2026 outlook, now pricing in only a single rate cut rather than the previously expected two. Higher-for-longer rates continue to pressure risk assets.💸 Institutional Outflows: The trend of 'cautious redemptions' continues. US-listed spot ETFs saw 74.2 mln USD in total liquidations last week, with ether ETFs (42 mln USD) seeing slightly more selling pressure than bitcoin (32.2 mln USD).🔄 Exchange Inflows: Large-scale whales (>10 mln USD) are moving assets back to exchanges, contributing to a 14.5k BTC net inflow over the last 7 days. This increased 'active' supply typically signals a readiness to sell.🛡️ Holder Divergence: A significant rotation is occurring: Long-term holders (LTHs) are accelerating their distributions, while short-term holders (STHs) are absorbing the supply. This transfer of coins often creates a temporary ceiling for price recovery.
The Bottom Line: While the underlying demand remains present, the combination of regulatory uncertainty and a restrictive Fed policy suggests a period of sideways or downward pressure before a clear trend emerges.
Do you think the delay of the CLARITY Act is a temporary setback or a sign of deeper partisan gridlock for 2026?
#bitcoin #ether #regulation #fed #cryptoanalysis
Key insights from the current market environment:
⚖️ Regulatory Stalls: Support for the CLARITY Act is fracturing. Major players, including Coinbase, have voiced concerns over revised SEC/CFTC boundaries and expanded Treasury powers, leading to a delay in the Senate Banking Committee markup.🏦 Macro Headwinds: US inflation remains stickier than anticipated. Markets have adjusted their 2026 outlook, now pricing in only a single rate cut rather than the previously expected two. Higher-for-longer rates continue to pressure risk assets.💸 Institutional Outflows: The trend of 'cautious redemptions' continues. US-listed spot ETFs saw 74.2 mln USD in total liquidations last week, with ether ETFs (42 mln USD) seeing slightly more selling pressure than bitcoin (32.2 mln USD).🔄 Exchange Inflows: Large-scale whales (>10 mln USD) are moving assets back to exchanges, contributing to a 14.5k BTC net inflow over the last 7 days. This increased 'active' supply typically signals a readiness to sell.🛡️ Holder Divergence: A significant rotation is occurring: Long-term holders (LTHs) are accelerating their distributions, while short-term holders (STHs) are absorbing the supply. This transfer of coins often creates a temporary ceiling for price recovery.
The Bottom Line: While the underlying demand remains present, the combination of regulatory uncertainty and a restrictive Fed policy suggests a period of sideways or downward pressure before a clear trend emerges.
Do you think the delay of the CLARITY Act is a temporary setback or a sign of deeper partisan gridlock for 2026?
#bitcoin #ether #regulation #fed #cryptoanalysis
CME gap means nothing, as a gap doesn't necessarily need to be closed. At the same time, CME gap can easily happen due to the no-trade weekend. Hence, I think it should be used carefully.
Crypto PM
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Bullish$BTC now closed CME gap at $88k
We now have 3 above.
- $97.8k
- $113.4k
- $116.9k
Can be spotted on different timeframes than displayed on the image attached.
#BTC
We now have 3 above.
- $97.8k
- $113.4k
- $116.9k
Can be spotted on different timeframes than displayed on the image attached.
#BTC
MSTR acquired the largest chunk of $BTC with the average cost of over 95k USD, making it underwater by over 5%.
I think it might be a strategic move as it buys in a big chunk, which will usually cost him a huge slippage. At the same time, it is a very bold move amid the risk-off sentiment in the global markets.
Anyhow, stay safe everyone!
I think it might be a strategic move as it buys in a big chunk, which will usually cost him a huge slippage. At the same time, it is a very bold move amid the risk-off sentiment in the global markets.
Anyhow, stay safe everyone!
Bitcoin $BTC and ether $ETH remain under pressure as we approach the festive season. The market is facing a catalyst vacuum, compounded by fading hopes for monetary easing in early 2026.
Here is the breakdown of the pre-holiday landscape:
🦅 Fed Pivot Delayed: The market is repricing risk. Expectations for a Jan 2026 rate cut have collapsed to below 15%, down from 25% last week. The narrative of elevated rates to control inflation is dampening buying momentum.
🏦 ETF Outflows Persist: Sentiment in traditional vehicles is sour. US-listed spot ETFs saw over 284 mln USD in outflows. Bitcoin ETFs bled nearly 189 mln USD, showing persistent selling pressure, and ether ETFs flipped back to outflows of -95 mln USD from the previous day's inflows.
🐋 The Whale Divergence: Despite ETF selling, onchain exchange data shows significant withdrawals. Investors pulled nearly 11k BTC from exchanges yesterday. The largest cohort (>10 mln USD) led the charge, withdrawing over 8k BTC. Big players are taking custody.
🧠 Strategic Accumulation: While aggregate Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are distributing, a sub-set of LTHs and Short-Term Holders (STHs) are quietly accumulating. The rise in Realized Profit suggests they are positioning for potential short-term recovery trades.
The overall condition suggests a slowdown. We are likely looking at slower price movements and rangebound action as the market drifts into the year-end.
Are you interpreting the exchange withdrawals as a bullish divergence, or just operational shuffling?
#bitcoin #ether #fed #onchain #analysis #marketstructure
Data sources: Exness FMS, CME Group, Glassnode, Farside Investors
Here is the breakdown of the pre-holiday landscape:
🦅 Fed Pivot Delayed: The market is repricing risk. Expectations for a Jan 2026 rate cut have collapsed to below 15%, down from 25% last week. The narrative of elevated rates to control inflation is dampening buying momentum.
🏦 ETF Outflows Persist: Sentiment in traditional vehicles is sour. US-listed spot ETFs saw over 284 mln USD in outflows. Bitcoin ETFs bled nearly 189 mln USD, showing persistent selling pressure, and ether ETFs flipped back to outflows of -95 mln USD from the previous day's inflows.
🐋 The Whale Divergence: Despite ETF selling, onchain exchange data shows significant withdrawals. Investors pulled nearly 11k BTC from exchanges yesterday. The largest cohort (>10 mln USD) led the charge, withdrawing over 8k BTC. Big players are taking custody.
🧠 Strategic Accumulation: While aggregate Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are distributing, a sub-set of LTHs and Short-Term Holders (STHs) are quietly accumulating. The rise in Realized Profit suggests they are positioning for potential short-term recovery trades.
The overall condition suggests a slowdown. We are likely looking at slower price movements and rangebound action as the market drifts into the year-end.
Are you interpreting the exchange withdrawals as a bullish divergence, or just operational shuffling?
#bitcoin #ether #fed #onchain #analysis #marketstructure
Data sources: Exness FMS, CME Group, Glassnode, Farside Investors
Some expect that the BoJ rate hike will melt $BTC and $ETH down, let alone $HYPE . However, the markets have priced in the BoJ rate hike, which we can see from the prices went down gradually. While $SOL was one of the most impacted. Does this mean many Japanese or investors moving to #JPY are meme traders?
The only question is how low can they go? Only time will tell.
The only question is how low can they go? Only time will tell.
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