张不烦
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Discover a very strange phenomenon
In this round, about 90% of KOLs publicly express their opinions on the bottom range around 40,000 to 50,000
The consensus in this range is a bit too strong
Just like the previous consensus guessing Bitcoin's peak at 150,000.
In this round, about 90% of KOLs publicly express their opinions on the bottom range around 40,000 to 50,000
The consensus in this range is a bit too strong
Just like the previous consensus guessing Bitcoin's peak at 150,000.
The fear and greed index of cryptocurrency has dropped to 5, lower than the COVID-19 index and the FTX index.
The Nine Gods Index is about to become ineffective.
It can be seen that the ahr999 hoarding indicator fluctuates lower with each round of bull market, and with the change in the funding structure of Bitcoin, many old indicators are not as accurate anymore.
This time the price peaked just slightly above the dollar-cost averaging line, and if one tries to carve a boat to seek a sword, it will be very tragic.
#BTC
This time, during the bear market bottom-fishing, I'm afraid we can't completely reference ahr999.
It can be seen that the ahr999 hoarding indicator fluctuates lower with each round of bull market, and with the change in the funding structure of Bitcoin, many old indicators are not as accurate anymore.
This time the price peaked just slightly above the dollar-cost averaging line, and if one tries to carve a boat to seek a sword, it will be very tragic.
#BTC
This time, during the bear market bottom-fishing, I'm afraid we can't completely reference ahr999.
Market View
Bitcoin is approaching the support at 64700, perhaps a position to go long
After consolidating between 69000-70000, Bitcoin has chosen to move down, currently running roughly according to the lines we drew
A small rebound after a short-term low at 65800
I believe there may be one more drop to 64700 and below
The specific area for buying should be between 64700-62700
The major support below is the bottom range of 57-40, and I still believe it won't reach that quickly (otherwise, I wouldn't know how to write the subsequent script)
Therefore, going long back at 60,000 is still worth considering
For the long term, I believe the range of 57-40 is a must-go, so 60,000 is not the lowest point of this bear market
If you do not participate in short-term/medium-term trading, you can also wait for the long-term buying area
Additionally, it can be seen that SOL has once again fallen below 80, and if it cannot stabilize at 80, I also believe that a final synchronized drop to 50 is a high-probability event
This does not mean I will short SOL; to a greater extent, if it can reach around 50, I would accumulate spot.
Bitcoin is approaching the support at 64700, perhaps a position to go long
After consolidating between 69000-70000, Bitcoin has chosen to move down, currently running roughly according to the lines we drew
A small rebound after a short-term low at 65800
I believe there may be one more drop to 64700 and below
The specific area for buying should be between 64700-62700
The major support below is the bottom range of 57-40, and I still believe it won't reach that quickly (otherwise, I wouldn't know how to write the subsequent script)
Therefore, going long back at 60,000 is still worth considering
For the long term, I believe the range of 57-40 is a must-go, so 60,000 is not the lowest point of this bear market
If you do not participate in short-term/medium-term trading, you can also wait for the long-term buying area
Additionally, it can be seen that SOL has once again fallen below 80, and if it cannot stabilize at 80, I also believe that a final synchronized drop to 50 is a high-probability event
This does not mean I will short SOL; to a greater extent, if it can reach around 50, I would accumulate spot.
Domestic: The blockchain industry will eventually come to an end
As the pressure from regulatory authorities increases and compliance progress accelerates, the entire blockchain industry will decline to leave only a small number of protocols and specific use cases within 5 years. The overall market value will shrink to less than one-tenth of the current level.
The biggest reasons are two points: 1. Lack of use cases 2. Compliance pressure. Among them, 2 is the most fundamental issue.
Lack of use cases
As we all know, the characteristics of blockchain are a) No need for trust b) Distributed c) Transparency d) Immutability
However, the core issue is,
- What practical problems can these characteristics solve that could not be solved before?
- How many people are willing to pay for these characteristics?
The biggest reasons are two points: 1. Lack of use cases 2. Compliance pressure. Among them, 2 is the most fundamental issue.
Lack of use cases
As we all know, the characteristics of blockchain are a) No need for trust b) Distributed c) Transparency d) Immutability
However, the core issue is,
- What practical problems can these characteristics solve that could not be solved before?
- How many people are willing to pay for these characteristics?
The global uncertainty index has risen parabolically, reaching a historic high.
What is everyone worried about? 🤔
What is everyone worried about? 🤔
BTC Spot Bottoming Four Stages:
Below 50,000: Sell everything that can be sold
Below 40,000: Sell everything that can be sold for a body
Below 30,000: Borrow everything that can be borrowed
Below 20,000: Sell all the organs that can be sold
Below 10,000: Remember to call me to sell together 😂
The later it gets, the more it tests true love.
Below 50,000: Sell everything that can be sold
Below 40,000: Sell everything that can be sold for a body
Below 30,000: Borrow everything that can be borrowed
Below 20,000: Sell all the organs that can be sold
Below 10,000: Remember to call me to sell together 😂
The later it gets, the more it tests true love.
Many people haven't figured out which stage of the bear market we are currently in, yet they keep saying we're at the bottom 😅 It's really embarrassing. Let me explain, all bear markets are divided into 5 stages. We are currently in the transition period between stages 1 and 2.
1⃣ The first stage makes people truly believe that a bear market has arrived, generally with a decline of 40%-50%, so-called halving, which has to make everyone really feel the pain once.
2⃣ The second stage makes people doubt that the bull market is over, generally recovering some of the lost ground, and in this process, many speculative projects will emerge, like the running shoes from back in the day.
3⃣ The third stage sees prices drop to the point where everyone doubts life itself, leading to DeFi liquidations, the fall of giant whales, and star projects crashing; at this point, prices should drop 70%-80% compared to the peak.
4⃣ The fourth stage is the final divergence and sideways trading, where everyone believes the bottom has been formed, and then positions are established.
5⃣ The fifth stage is the final drop, where the last remaining believers sell at a loss.
So far, it is clearly at the end of the first stage. If you have lost money in this stage, don't feel discouraged now. Hold on, and wait for the second stage to turn around.
1⃣ The first stage makes people truly believe that a bear market has arrived, generally with a decline of 40%-50%, so-called halving, which has to make everyone really feel the pain once.
2⃣ The second stage makes people doubt that the bull market is over, generally recovering some of the lost ground, and in this process, many speculative projects will emerge, like the running shoes from back in the day.
3⃣ The third stage sees prices drop to the point where everyone doubts life itself, leading to DeFi liquidations, the fall of giant whales, and star projects crashing; at this point, prices should drop 70%-80% compared to the peak.
4⃣ The fourth stage is the final divergence and sideways trading, where everyone believes the bottom has been formed, and then positions are established.
5⃣ The fifth stage is the final drop, where the last remaining believers sell at a loss.
So far, it is clearly at the end of the first stage. If you have lost money in this stage, don't feel discouraged now. Hold on, and wait for the second stage to turn around.
The global uncertainty index has reached a historical high.
Long and short double kill? Be careful when playing the box; if I give it to you directly, will you really come?
张不烦
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$BTC currently has significant liquidity piled up on both the upper and lower ends.
Many speculators are using high leverage of 50x and 100x to gamble back and forth, with both long and short positions betting on the direction, but in this environment, often the one with higher leverage exits first.
In my view, the price is likely to first pull back to around 65,000 USD to complete a liquidity clean-up, and then rebound to around 68,000 USD.
Many speculators are using high leverage of 50x and 100x to gamble back and forth, with both long and short positions betting on the direction, but in this environment, often the one with higher leverage exits first.
In my view, the price is likely to first pull back to around 65,000 USD to complete a liquidity clean-up, and then rebound to around 68,000 USD.
$BTC currently has significant liquidity piled up on both the upper and lower ends.
Many speculators are using high leverage of 50x and 100x to gamble back and forth, with both long and short positions betting on the direction, but in this environment, often the one with higher leverage exits first.
In my view, the price is likely to first pull back to around 65,000 USD to complete a liquidity clean-up, and then rebound to around 68,000 USD.
Many speculators are using high leverage of 50x and 100x to gamble back and forth, with both long and short positions betting on the direction, but in this environment, often the one with higher leverage exits first.
In my view, the price is likely to first pull back to around 65,000 USD to complete a liquidity clean-up, and then rebound to around 68,000 USD.
The market is in a state of disorderly fluctuations. Currently, it is still in a state of disorderly fluctuations.
张不烦
·
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Market Perspective
Short-term is at 70,000 as the watershed
After a rebound, the current market is running at the 69,000 line. 70,000 will be the watershed for the short-term.
If it cannot stay above 70,000, the market may further decline to the 65-64 line.
If it stabilizes above 70,000, the market may further rise to the 79,000 line.
This is only a discussion of short-term trends and does not conflict with the medium-term target of rebounding above 84.
Let’s reconfirm the timeframe:
Short-term = a few hours to a few days
Medium-term = a few days to a few weeks, not exceeding 2 months
Long-term = more than 2 months
I believe the likelihood of breaking below 60,000 in the medium-term is very low. It is currently in a phase of rebound and consolidation after a deep decline.
Because further declines (i.e., breaking below 60,000) would mean probing below 57,000, but there are a large number of buy orders below 60,000, indicating that the resistance to dropping into this area is very significant. Before any further macroeconomic negative factors arrive, I believe the probability of breaking below 60,000 is very low #btc .
Short-term is at 70,000 as the watershed
After a rebound, the current market is running at the 69,000 line. 70,000 will be the watershed for the short-term.
If it cannot stay above 70,000, the market may further decline to the 65-64 line.
If it stabilizes above 70,000, the market may further rise to the 79,000 line.
This is only a discussion of short-term trends and does not conflict with the medium-term target of rebounding above 84.
Let’s reconfirm the timeframe:
Short-term = a few hours to a few days
Medium-term = a few days to a few weeks, not exceeding 2 months
Long-term = more than 2 months
I believe the likelihood of breaking below 60,000 in the medium-term is very low. It is currently in a phase of rebound and consolidation after a deep decline.
Because further declines (i.e., breaking below 60,000) would mean probing below 57,000, but there are a large number of buy orders below 60,000, indicating that the resistance to dropping into this area is very significant. Before any further macroeconomic negative factors arrive, I believe the probability of breaking below 60,000 is very low #btc .
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