K哥的投资笔记

February 12, 2026 Financial Breakfast

The United States added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%
Federal Reserve's Milan expresses willingness to continue at the Federal Reserve
Trump says reaching an agreement with Iran would be "preferred"
Kenya's central bank joins the ranks of African countries increasing gold holdings
Serbia's gold reserves hit a record high
Indonesia plans to cut production at the world's largest nickel mine by 70%
Wenta Technology responds to the latest ruling from the Dutch corporate court regarding the AMS semiconductor case
Li Qiang: Fully promote technological innovation in artificial intelligence, industrial development, and empowering applications
#CZ币安广场AMA

February 11, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Trump threatens to send an aircraft carrier strike group back to the Middle East
US retail sales unexpectedly stagnated in December
Federal Reserve officials downplay urgency for rate cuts
White House trade advisor refutes claims of worsening employment
US Commerce Secretary: Dollar exchange rate has been artificially inflated for years
Trump: If US-Iran negotiations fail, may send another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East
European Commission accepts Volkswagen's commitment on the price of electric vehicles produced in China
China will accelerate the promotion and application of AI in the bidding field
#美国伊朗对峙

February 10, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Before the non-farm report, Hassett gave the market a 'precautionary shot', U.S. merchant ships were warned to stay away from Iranian territorial waters, the Epstein case documents shook the political landscape in the U.S. and Europe, Lutnick faced pressure from lawmakers to resign, and another senior aide to Starmer has resigned.

U.S. advises merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters
White House's Hassett warns of worsening job market
U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick pressured by both parties to resign
In 24 hours, the second senior aide to the UK Prime Minister resigns
Shanghai and Shenzhen North Stock Exchanges announce optimization of refinancing measures
Three departments release tax incentives for cross-border e-commerce export return goods
#BTC何时反弹？

February 9, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Military standoff continues after US-Iran talks, ceasefire deadline for Russia-Ukraine set for June? Denmark says Greenland negotiations did not meet expectations

Pentagon's "Pizza Index" surges
Japanese ruling coalition wins majority of seats
Zelensky: The US hopes for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine before June
Denmark: Negotiations with the US on Greenland did not meet expectations
Retail investors continue to increase bets amid silver's plunge
Besencher downplays expectations for rapid tapering by the Federal Reserve
China's central bank increases gold holdings for the 15th consecutive month
As the Spring Festival approaches, multiple banks raise deposit rates
Eight departments release new regulations for virtual currency supervision
Tesla to increase investment in AI and energy in China
#BTC When will it rebound?

February 6, 2026 Financial Breakfast

After two days of rebound, precious metals have suffered another heavy blow, and the CME is taking action again! The two major central banks in Europe maintain interest rates, and the next round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia may take place in the United States.

The CME has raised the margin ratio for gold and silver futures.
The number of planned layoffs in the U.S. surged in January, reaching the highest level for the month in 17 years.
Zelensky: The next round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia may take place in the United States.
The European Central Bank keeps the three major interest rates unchanged.
The Bank of England maintains interest rates with a narrow vote.
World Gold Council: January saw a record inflow of $18.7 billion into global gold ETFs.
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued a notice on the implementation plan for high-quality development of the Chinese medicine industry (2026-2030).
Meituan: Plans to acquire Dingdong Maicai for $717 million.
#BTC何时反弹？

February 5, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Gold and silver experience another "roller coaster";

U.S. January "non-farm payrolls" ADP employment figures fell short of expectations
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Non-farm payrolls will be released on February 11, CPI data rescheduled for February 13
U.S. Treasury maintains debt issuance strategy
New round of talks between Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine ends on the first day, Zelensky: Expecting to exchange prisoners soon
Iranian Foreign Minister confirms: U.S.-Iran nuclear talks will be held on Friday in Oman
JP has a phone call with U.S. President Trump
JP holds a video meeting with Russian President Putin
Central Bank: Focus on supporting the expansion of domestic demand, technological innovation, and key areas such as small and medium-sized enterprises
#BTC走势分析

February 4, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Gold surged over $300 during trading;

Trump signed a bill to end partial government shutdown
Federal Reserve Governor Milan: Interest rates need to be cut by slightly more than one percentage point this year
White House: Talks between the U.S. and Iran are still scheduled for this week, and the U.S. retains military options
Iranian diplomatic sources: Iran has entered a state of highest defensive readiness
Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%
Central Document No. 1 released "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization"
Domestic exchanges intensively adjusted some futures margin ratios and price fluctuation limits
Domestic retail prices for refined oil have seen a "double increase" this year
Game industry tax rates aligning with liquor? Many game companies respond: false information
#BTC走势分析

February 3, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Gold and silver experience massive fluctuations and continue to decline;

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has postponed the employment report originally scheduled for release on Friday
ISM data shows that U.S. manufacturing has returned to the expansion zone after a year
Trump: A trade agreement with India will reduce reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 18%
Trump plans to establish a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals, named the "Treasury Plan"
It is reported that the Iranian president has ordered the start of special negotiations with the U.S. on nuclear issues
Shanghai Gold Exchange: Adjusting the margin levels and price limits for silver forward contracts
Revaluation of fund assets, the net asset value of the Guotou Silver LOF fund fell by 31.5% in a single day
The Ministry of Finance released an announcement regarding the deduction of input VAT and related matters
The Ministry of Commerce and 9 other units issued the "2026 'Buy New Spring' Spring Festival Special Activity Plan"
#Cryptocurrency market adjustment

February 2, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Gold and silver suffer heavy losses after Trump nominates Federal Reserve Chairman! Gold briefly plummets 12%, silver records the largest daily drop in history

The U.S. government enters a technical and partial "shutdown" state
Trump announces the nomination of Kevin Walsh as Federal Reserve Chairman
Several Federal Reserve officials believe there is no need for rate cuts at this time
CME raises margin ratios for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium futures
U.S. media: The U.S. signals willingness to negotiate with Iran, and both sides may meet in Turkey
OPEC+ member countries will maintain their planned schedule, suspending oil production increases in March
Japan did not intervene in the yen in January
National Bureau of Statistics: January manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points month-on-month
The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts the price limits and trading margin ratios for silver futures contracts
Several LOFs will be suspended for 1 hour today
#加密市场回调

January 30, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Gold and silver experience huge fluctuations! Gold's intraday volatility reaches $500, and silver once fell over $10;

Trump: Next week will announce the Federal Reserve Chairman candidate, interest rates should decline by 2 to 3 percentage points
Trump says Putin agrees to a one-week ceasefire in parts of Ukraine
Iran issues a warning to merchant ships, live naval exercises will be conducted in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and Monday
CME raises margin levels for gold, copper, and some aluminum futures
The U.S. government faces another 'shutdown' crisis
World Gold Council: In the fourth quarter, global central banks net purchased 230 tons of gold. Strong momentum in gold demand is expected to continue in 2026
The General Office of the State Council issues the 'Work Plan for Accelerating the Cultivation of New Growth Points in Service Consumption'
Guotou Silver LOF: Trading suspended from the market opening on January 30 until market close
China will layout more 'Space+' future industries
#美联储维持利率不变

January 29, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Gold breaks through $5,400 for the first time, soaring $220 in a single day, setting the record for the largest daily increase
The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, Powell advises successors to stay away from politics
Besenet states that the United States has long pursued a strong dollar policy and absolutely does not intervene in the yen
Trump warns that the next attack on Iran will be more severe, stating that time is running out
The Bank of Ghana has sold part of its gold reserves to obtain foreign exchange
The Bank of Thailand has set a daily online gold trading limit and banned short selling
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission is drafting a work document aimed at promoting the cultivation of new pillar industries in central enterprises
The Shanghai Gold Exchange adjusts the margin levels and price limits for silver futures contracts
The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusts the price limits and trading margin ratios for gold, silver, nickel, and other related futures contracts
Multiple leading quantitative institutions respond: "Changes to quantitative stock trading rules" is false news
#Strategy增持比特币

January 28, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Trump's statement ignites the market! The US dollar index crashes to a near four-year low, gold skyrockets to over $5190, and silver surges 8% in a single day; the Federal Reserve's rate decision countdown has begun

Trump: Not worried about the depreciation of the dollar, it can rise and fall like a yo-yo
Trump: The US has dispatched a large naval fleet towards Iran
Federal Reserve spokesperson: The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts
The EU satellite communication plan has been launched
Japan and the US are reportedly planning to layout synthetic diamond production
Our country’s large-scale industrial enterprises are expected to achieve a profit increase of 0.6% compared to last year by 2025
UK Prime Minister Starmer will visit China
Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: The total surplus of the three social insurance funds is expected to reach 10.2 trillion yuan by the end of the year
E Fund Gold Theme LOF and State Investment Silver LOF will stop accepting applications starting the 28th
Zhongwei Semiconductor and Guoke Micro have successively issued chip price increase notices
#Strategy增持比特币

#TSLA will be listed on Binance tomorrow ....
Are you ready??? Are you excited about #TSLA???
#Strategy增持比特币

Federal Reserve Mouthpiece: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady, Waller's 'vote' or 'submission'?

The Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate cuts for the first time since last September this week to address the inflation deadlock. In the face of extreme pressure from the White House, Powell facing investigation, and tariffs driving up prices, there is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve on when to restart rate cuts, and actions may be difficult before September.
For the market, the most challenging question now is not why the Federal Reserve has paused, but what conditions are needed to make them start again.

Higher Threshold for Rate Cuts
The Federal Reserve is expected to make only minor adjustments to its language and maintain the benchmark interest rate within the range of 3.5% to 3.75%.

Tariffs and Data
Bridging this disagreement in data may take months.
The key variable is whether retailers will pass on rising costs to consumers after depleting the inventory they stocked up before the tariffs took effect. If price increases are moderate, it will clear obstacles for rate cuts.

Difficult to Act Before September?

"In the past 18 months, inflation management has essentially been stagnant," said Matthew Luzzetti, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. He predicts that the Federal Reserve's next rate cut will not come until September.
Waller's Choice: Vote or Submit?
At least one dissenting vote is expected from Federal Reserve Governor Miran (Stephen Miran), and Governors Bowman (Michelle Bowman) and Waller (Christopher Waller) are also seen as potential supporters of rate cuts.
Among them, Waller's vote is particularly noteworthy. If Waller votes in favor of rate cuts, it will aid his 'campaign' in front of the President; if he chooses to go with the flow and pause, while it may demonstrate his independence, it could risk him losing the chairmanship.
#Strategy增持比特币

January 27, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Precious metals experienced a stunning reversal, with spot silver erasing a 14% gain, and spot gold falling over $100 from its historical high;
OPEC+ representative: Production cut policy may remain in place in March
No clear signs in Bank of Japan account data indicating intervention in the foreign exchange market last Friday
The probability of a U.S. government shutdown before the end of January is about 80%
Trump stated that the situation in Iran is "rapidly changing," but he believes Iran indeed wants to reach an agreement
Trump: Will raise South Korea's equivalent tariff from 15% to 25%
The People's Bank of China held the 2026 macro-prudential work conference
#ETH走势分析

January 26, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Gold breaks through the $5000 mark, silver enters the "three-digit" era
Trump claims the U.S. will obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the U.S. military base in Greenland is located
U.S. media: It is reported that the U.S. Treasury has taken preliminary steps to intervene in the foreign exchange market
The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the Indian Ocean; Iranian officials say the Iranian armed forces are on full alert
Democrats in the U.S. Senate vow to obstruct funding for the Department of Homeland Security, raising the risk of government shutdown again
IMF: The dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%
National market operation and consumption promotion work conference held in Beijing
CSRC strictly investigates illegal cases involving Ruifengda
Rumors of tightening listing thresholds for Hong Kong are unfounded, and there are no changes to overseas listing policies
#ETH走势分析

【Important News Summary for Saturday】
1. Italy recalls its ambassador to Switzerland.
2. IMF: The share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen below 60%.
3. Market fluctuations in Japan prompt the US Treasury to consider intervening in the currency market.
4. The US military gathers generals from 34 countries in the Western Hemisphere to strengthen anti-drug military cooperation.
5. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: We are about to finalize a free trade agreement with India.
6. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hints that the US may cancel some additional tariffs on India.
7. US President Trump: The US has obtained oil from the detained Venezuelan tanker. Venezuelan oil will be sent to the Houston refinery.
8. Ukrainian officials: The meeting on the Ukraine issue held in Abu Dhabi has indeed made some progress. Another round of talks will be held in Abu Dhabi next week.
9. Sources: The US is pressuring Bolivia to expel suspected Iranian spies and to designate the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. US officials are also discussing similar measures in Chile, Peru, and Panama.
#ETH走势分析

$4 billion poured in in one day! Retail investors bet hard on Trump’s TACO winning again

Retail investors are not included here

On Tuesday, when the S&P 500 index suffered its largest drop in three months, individual investors poured $4 billion into U.S. stocks. Another $2.3 billion flowed in on Wednesday, coinciding with Trump's announcement to halt tariff threats, triggering a rebound, followed by a 1.2% surge in the stock market, and another 0.6% increase on Thursday, essentially erasing the decline from the first day.

Any drop triggered primarily by the threat of punitive tariffs is a “golden buying opportunity.”

The scale of the inflows indicates that retail investors remain generally optimistic about risk assets.

The influx of funds was mainly driven by large purchases of funds such as Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF.

“We all know Trump’s playbook now. He threatens to make big moves, and once he succeeds, he pulls back. The market overreacts, and this becomes a great buying opportunity.

This level is comparable to last year’s major buying opportunities during dips.
Tech stocks continue to dominate retail demand, followed by consumer discretionary and communication services.
Investors have begun to diversify their investments.

The daily average volume of stocks and options traded by individual investors is over 40% higher than the January average from 2020 to 2025.
Retail fund inflows have continued for seven weeks, and in 37 out of the past 38 weeks, there has been a decisive tendency to buy, reinforcing the view that individual investors remain a strong bullish force supporting U.S. stocks.
#加密市场观察

If I give you a Tesla phone right now, would you accept it?

Like👍 or say "yes"
#加密市场观察

January 23, 2026 Financial Breakfast

Spot gold has historically risen above $4900
Trump warns: If Europe sells American assets, there will be "significant retaliation"
Trump signs documents with representatives from more than ten countries and regions in Davos to launch the "Peace Committee"
It is reported that the Trump administration is seeking to "promote regime change in Cuba" by the end of the year
Trump sues JPMorgan Chase for closing his account for political reasons, seeking $5 billion in damages
SpaceX has reached agreements with four banks to prepare for the "super IPO"
Pan Gongsheng: There is still room for interest rate cuts this year
Landspace IPO review status changed to "inquired"
China Investment Silver LOF: Trading will be suspended from the market opening on January 23 until 10:30 on the same day
It is reported that Alibaba's chip company, Pingtouge, plans to go public independently
#加密市场观察