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The Monero price has remained under pressure since mid-January, even as parts of the crypto market attempt to stabilize. After falling sharply through late January, the XMR price found support near $276 on February 6 and has since moved slightly higher.

But this recovery looks shaky. Chart patterns, weak dip buying, and mixed sentiment data suggest Monero may still be heading toward another major decline.

Bear Flag Breakdown and Weak Dip Buying Put XMR Under Pressure

Since January 14, Monero has been trading within a declining structure resembling a bearish pole-and-flag pattern. A bear flag is a short consolidation that forms after a sharp drop (ended on February 6 for XMR) and often signals that the downtrend may continue.

After falling more than 60% from its January peak, XMR moved sideways and slightly upward inside this flag. However, as of February 12, the price began slipping below the lower boundary, signaling a potential breakdown. This confirms the bearish breakdown at press time, unless, in the next few hours, some buyers can push XMR back inside the flag.

Momentum data shows that dip buyers are still present, but their strength remains limited. One useful indicator here is the Money Flow Index, or MFI. MFI tracks buying and selling pressure by combining price and volume, making it useful for spotting dip-buying strength.

XMR Sees Dip Buying: TradingView

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Since February 1, Monero’s MFI has trended upward (higher lows) while XMR moved sideways and lower. This suggests that some investors are buying dips. But MFI has failed to break above its upper trendline or form a clear higher-high structure. That means buying interest is present, but not strong enough to reverse the pattern weakness.

Exchange flow data supports this view. After three days of mild inflows, Monero recorded net outflows again on February 12, with around $372,000 worth of XMR moving out of exchanges. Negative netflow usually signals rising buying pressure.

Spot Flows: Coinglass

This shows that some are still buying. In simple terms, dip buyers are active, but only feebly.

Rising Social Interest Fails to Offset Falling Positive Sentiment

Social data shows another important weakness in Monero’s current setup.

Over the past few days, Monero’s social dominance has started to rise. Social dominance measures how much attention a coin receives compared to the rest of the crypto market. When it increases, it means more people are talking about the asset.

Between February 11 and February 12, social dominance rose from around 0.046% to 0.066%. This shows that interest in Monero is picking up slightly after weeks of decline. Historically, rising social activity has sometimes preceded short-term price rebounds.

For example, on January 12, social dominance surged near 0.92%. Within two days, Monero rallied 25%. A similar pattern appeared on January 18, when social interest rose ahead of another short-term price peak. However, the current rise in social dominance is much weaker than in those past cases. It remains well below the February high near 0.106 and far below January’s major spikes.

More importantly, positive sentiment is moving in the opposite direction. Positive sentiment tracks how much of the social discussion is optimistic rather than neutral or negative. Since February 9, Monero’s positive sentiment score has fallen sharply from about 27.26 to just 7.21, a 74% dip. This is a major decline.

Social Chatter Around XMR: Santiment

In January, when positive sentiment surged above 100, strong rallies followed. Today, sentiment is collapsing even as social chatter rises. This suggests that people are talking about Monero, but not in a confident or optimistic way. Much of the discussion appears driven by concern, speculation, and downside risk. This weak emotional backdrop makes it harder for any Monero price recovery to sustain momentum.

Monero Price Levels That Determine the Next Leg

With technical weakness and fragile demand, the XMR price levels now matter more than narratives. On the upside, the most important resistance sits near $361, discussed at the end of this section.

This level marks the center of the bear flag structure. A sustained move above $361 would suggest that buyers are regaining control and that the breakdown may be delayed. Not invalidated. Without a recovery above this zone, downside risks remain dominant.

One small positive signal comes from the Bull-Bear Power indicator. This metric compares buying strength against selling pressure to show which side is in control. Recently, bearish power has started to weaken even as the price slipped below key support. This suggests that sellers are losing some momentum.

Bears Losing Control: TradingView

If dip buying remains active while bearish pressure continues to fade, buyers could delay the breakdown and attempt to push XMR back above $361. 

On the downside, the first major support lies near $308. This level has acted as a short-term floor several times in recent days. Below $308, the next key support sits near $276, which marked the February low.

Monero Price Analysis: TradingView

If both levels fail, the bear flag projection points toward the $135 region. This target reflects nearly the full measured move of the prior decline and represents the next major historical support zone.

Some Coinbase users are currently experiencing a temporary disruption, leaving them unable to buy, sell, or transfer digital assets on Coinbase.com.

The issue, first reported by the platform on social media, has prompted concern among traders, though the company reassures customers that all funds remain secure.

Temporary Service Disruption Leaves Coinbase Users Unable to Trade

Coinbase, the largest US-based crypto exchange, confirmed the disruption in a statement on its official Twitter support channel, noting:

“We are aware that customers may be unable to buy, sell, or transfer on Coinbase.com at this time. Our team is investigating this issue and will provide an update. Your funds are safe,” the exchange shared in a post.

The company emphasized that the outage is temporary and that there is no indication of any long-term risk to user accounts or funds. Updates will be provided as the investigation progresses.

Community trackers and crypto news accounts, including MilkRoad, quickly picked up the report, echoing Coinbase’s statement.

While the cause of the disruption has not yet been disclosed, Coinbase’s quick acknowledgment reflects the platform’s growing focus on transparency amid increased scrutiny of crypto exchange reliability.

Temporary outages on exchanges, though relatively rare, can have ripple effects on trading activity and market sentiment, especially for high-volume users or during periods of heightened market volatility.

Some users have expressed frustration on social media, noting that being unable to execute trades temporarily could affect active positions. However, such disruptions are often resolved quickly and typically do not result in financial loss.

Coinbase Q4 Earnings In Focus

The incident comes ahead of Coinbase’s earnings report, with the exchange scheduled to release its Q4 2025 and full-year 2025 financial results today, Thursday, February 12, 2026, after market close (US time).

The market sentiment ahead of Coinbase earnings is predominantly cautious to bearish in the short term, driven by expectations of a sequential decline in key metrics amid softer crypto trading volumes, lower asset prices, and broader market weakness.

Analysts at Monness, Crespi, Hardt have also downgraded COIN stock amid predictions that Coinbase will struggle to meet Q4 earnings forecasts.

The downgrade reflects ongoing issues in digital asset trading and reduced visibility in near-term financial performance.

Coinbase (COIN) Stock Performance. Source: TradingView

As of this writing, COIN stock was trading for $140.31, down by over 45% year-to-date. While revenue is likely to lag, long-term prospects remain intact.

Gold and silver tumbled sharply on Thursday, rattling markets already on edge amid surging US financial stress.

Spot gold dropped by more than 3% while silver plunged by more than 10%, reversing a portion of their recent rally.

Bad News for Gold and Silver Amid Record US Debt and Rising Bankruptcies

As of this writing, gold was trading for $4,956, down 3.97% while silver exchanged hands for $76.74 after losing 10.65% in the last 24 hours.

Gold and Silver Price Performance. Source: TradingView

The sudden sell-off has prompted analysts and investors to question whether a broader repricing of hard assets is unfolding.

The metals’ retreat comes amid intensifying economic stress. Over the past three weeks, 18 US companies with liabilities exceeding $50 million have filed for bankruptcy.

Notably, this is the fastest pace since the pandemic and approaches levels last seen during the 2009 financial crisis.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed said in a press release that household debt has reached a record $18.8 trillion, with mortgages, auto loans, credit card balances, and student loan balances all at historic highs.

Serious credit card delinquencies climbed to 12.7% in Q4 2025, the highest since 2011, with younger households under particular strain.

Such conditions typically emerge late in the economic cycle, often preceding policy interventions like rate cuts or liquidity injections.

Bitcoin has also remained under pressure, falling to the $65,000 range as the pioneer crypto lags both equities and traditional safe-haven assets over the past few months.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

While digital assets often present as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty, recent trends suggest they are not yet playing that role effectively in this cycle.

Analysts Split on Metals Sell-Off as Fed Watchers Eye Rate Cuts and Asset Repricing

Analysts are at a crossroads, offering differing interpretations of the metals’ pullback. Some argue it reflects short-term volatility within a broader trend of hard-asset repricing.

“Gold was repriced to $5,000 by the US, and markets caught up,” wrote macro analyst Marty Party, suggesting that authorities may be positioning precious metals to collateralize sovereign debt alongside digital assets like Bitcoin.

However, others caution that tight liquidity conditions remain dominant, and further weakness could emerge if financial stress continues to mount.

Policy watchers are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s potential response. Citi economists project softer job growth in spring and summer after January’s payrolls came in below expectations, which could create room for three rate cuts later in 2026.

Historically, rising corporate bankruptcies and consumer delinquencies precede monetary easing. This suggests that official support could arrive once economic strain becomes more visible in the data.

The confluence of record household debt, accelerating bankruptcies, and declining hard-asset prices suggests a market at a critical inflection point.

Corporate Bankruptcies. Source: Bull Theory on X

“This economic decay, mirroring the indicators of 2008, is not an anomaly. It is the direct consequence of the current administration’s ideologically driven policies, prioritizing inflationary fiscal adventurism and social engineering over foundational economic stability and competitive market principles,” commented Jade Kotonono, a popular user on X.

Is the current precious metals crash a temporary correction or the early stages of a multi-year repricing? Some bullish analysts anticipate that once gold consolidates near $5,000, rotation back into digital assets could accelerate.

Notwithstanding, the current environment presents both opportunities and risks, and investors should conduct their own research.

With markets digesting unprecedented financial stress, gold, silver, and Bitcoin may fall further. Conversely, a stabilizing policy response could catalyze the next leg of the asset repricing cycle.

Ethereum price remains under pressure after a sharp decline that unsettled investors across the crypto market. 

Although Ethereum appears to be entering a historically favorable accumulation zone, on-chain indicators reveal mixed conviction among different holder cohorts.

Ethereum Is In a Prime Accumulation Range

Ethereum’s Market Value to Realized Value, or MVRV, ratio indicates that ETH has entered what analysts describe as an “opportunity zone.” This range lies between negative 18% and negative 28%. Historically, when MVRV falls into this band, selling pressure approaches exhaustion.

Previous entries into this zone often preceded price reversals. Investors typically accumulate when unrealized losses deepen. Such behavior can stabilize the Ethereum price and initiate recovery phases. However, historical probability does not guarantee immediate upside.

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Ethereum MVRV Ratio. Source: Santiment

Current macro conditions complicate the outlook. Liquidity constraints and cautious sentiment may delay accumulation. While MVRV suggests undervaluation relative to realized cost basis, broader market weakness could suppress momentum and extend consolidation before any meaningful rebound begins.

Ethereum Holders Are Leaning Differently

Short-term holders are regaining influence over Ethereum price action. The MVRV Long/Short Difference measures profitability between long-term and short-term holders. Deeply negative readings signal greater profitability among short-term holders compared to long-term investors.

Toward the end of January, the metric suggested profitability was shifting away from short-term traders. That trend hinted at an improving structure. However, the recent decline reversed that dynamic, restoring short-term holder profits. These investors typically sell quickly, increasing vulnerability to renewed downside pressure.

Ethereum MVRV Long/Short Difference. Source: Santiment

The HODLer net position change metric reveals another shift. Long-term holders previously exhibited steady accumulation. In recent days, the buying pressure has transitioned into distribution, reflecting reduced confidence among strategic investors.

Long-term holder selling adds structural risk. These participants often provide foundational support during downturns. Without renewed accumulation from this cohort, the Ethereum price may struggle to absorb supply. Current data shows limited evidence of strong counterbalancing demand.

Ethereum HODLer Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode ETH Price May Look At Consolidation

Ethereum price trades at $1,983 and remains above the $1,811 support level. Despite this stability, the altcoin recently marked a nine-month low at $1,743. Maintaining $1,811 is critical to prevent deeper technical deterioration.

Given ongoing selling from both short-term and long-term holders, recovery may face resistance near $2,238. Continued weakness could keep ETH trading closer to support rather than challenging overhead barriers. A confirmed breakdown below $1,811 may expose Ethereum to $1,571.

Ethereum Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, reduced selling from short-term holders could ease pressure. If long-term holders resume accumulation, Ethereum may attempt a stronger rebound. A decisive move above $2,238, followed by a rally past $2,509, would invalidate the bearish thesis and improve the medium-term outlook.

Decentralized perpetuals trading platform Lighter saw its native token LIT surge nearly 10% during the early hours of the US session.  

It follows news that it had struck a major revenue-sharing deal with USDC issuer Circle.

Lighter Strikes $920 Million USDC Revenue-Sharing Deal with Circle — A Win for DeFi Traders

LIT, the powering token for the Lighter ecosystem, exploded by nearly 10% on the news, and was trading for $1.46% on the news.

Lighter (LIT) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

The agreement covers approximately $920 million in USDC deposits on Lighter’s platform, marking a significant milestone for the young DeFi exchange.

Under the partnership, interest income generated from Circle’s USDC reserves will be shared between Circle and Lighter.

This aligns with Circle’s broader revenue-sharing model, which it has previously implemented with leading exchanges such as Coinbase and Bybit.

For Lighter, the deal offers a fast and capital-efficient path to grow its yield engine, fund user incentives, and support platform features such as funding rate rebates and rewards programs.

Unlike some of its competitors, Lighter has opted to lean on USDC rather than launching a proprietary stablecoin.

Hyperliquid, for instance, introduced its native stablecoin USDH in late 2025 after a competitive governance auction. The move diverted billions in deposits and yield away from Circle and other stablecoin issuers.

That move allowed Hyperliquid to capture revenue internally and reduce centralization risks, but required significant capital and infrastructure investment.

Lighter Leverages Circle Partnership to Boost Adoption, Liquidity, and LIT Token Sentiment

Lighter’s approach, by contrast, allows the platform to tap directly into Circle’s established reserves while still benefiting from shared yield.

This could accelerate adoption by leveraging Circle’s USDC ecosystem, enabling Lighter to scale more efficiently while delivering value to traders and token holders.

The deal represents a potential win-win scenario:

Circle benefits by locking in a large volume of USDC on a growing DeFi platform, incentivizing adoption and circulation.

Lighter gains access to a steady revenue stream, which could enhance platform sustainability, attract more liquidity, and increase user engagement.

Moving forward, interest will be on on-chain USDC flows to Lighter contracts as this could show early signs of the agreement’s impact on liquidity and token sentiment.

Lighter has been gaining traction in the DeFi perpetuals market, with growing trading volumes, loyalty points programs, and community engagement.

Token listings on popular platforms like Robinhood have also contributed to its growing bullish sentiment.

The revenue-sharing announcement is expected to boost confidence, perhaps further than during its LIT token event in December.

Nevertheless, it is impossible to forget past controversies surrounding Lighter, including allegations of secret token sales.

While official details on the exact share split of USDC interest have not yet been disclosed, even a conservative arrangement could provide a meaningful boost to LIT holders.

Crypto investors are advised to monitor announcements from both Lighter and Circle for updates, as revenue-sharing agreements of this scale can change quickly.

Hedera’s HBAR is outperforming the broader crypto market. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are up around 2% over the past day, HBAR price today has gained nearly 10% over the past week and about 8% in the last 24 hours, trading near $0.096 at press time.

The rally has raised expectations of a breakout. But momentum, volume, and derivatives data suggest risk is rising faster than conviction.

Falling Wedge Breakout Hopes Build, But With A Risk

HBAR has been trading inside a falling wedge pattern since late 2025.

Since early February, HBAR has rebounded from close to the lower boundary of this structure and climbed toward the upper trendline near $0.098. This level has capped the price multiple times and now acts as key resistance.

If HBAR breaks and holds above this zone, the wedge’s measured move points toward an upside of over 50% from current levels. However, momentum is starting to weaken. The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures buying and selling strength. When RSI rises, momentum improves. When it weakens, momentum fades.

Between February 6 and February 12, HBAR struggled to move decisively above $0.098 and began forming a potential lower high. At the same time, RSI continued making higher highs.

Building RSI Risk: TradingView

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This creates a hidden bearish divergence. It happens when the price fails to confirm improving momentum. It often signals that buyers are becoming stretched near resistance.

This does not indicate a trend reversal. But it shows that upside efficiency is declining as the price approaches a critical level. The divergence threat passes if the current HBAR price candle touches $0.098, invalidating the lower-high theory.

Money Flow and Derivatives Data Show Rising Risks

Money and leverage indicators reinforce this warning. One key metric is Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF. CMF tracks whether large capital is flowing into or out of an asset by combining price and volume. When CMF stays above zero, strong institutional buying is present. When it remains below zero, major inflows are missing.

Between December 31 and February 11, HBAR’s CMF has trended higher while the price trended lower. This divergence supported the recent rebound. CMF has also broken above its descending trendline. But CMF remains below the zero line.

Money Flow Risk: TradingView

This means selling pressure has eased, but strong accumulation has not returned. The rally is still driven mainly by short-term traders rather than large wallets. Derivatives data adds further risk. Open interest measures the total value of active futures contracts. When it rises, leverage in the market increases.

Since February 11, HBAR’s open interest has climbed from about $26.96 million to nearly $29.38 million, an increase of roughly 9% in one day. This jump happened as the price approached resistance. At the same time, funding rates turned sharply positive.

Funding shifted from around -0.018 to near +0.05 within 24 hours. This shows that long positions are building rapidly. There is also a divergence between price and leverage.

HBAR Open Interest: Santiment

The HBAR price formed a local peak on February 8 and another on February 12. The second peak is lower, showing weaker price strength. But open interest made a higher high during the same period. More leverage is entering the market even as the price momentum weakens. This combination often precedes pullbacks. When leverage rises near resistance and momentum fades, even small declines can trigger forced liquidations.

In simple terms, risk-taking is rising while conviction remains weak.

Key Levels Will Decide Whether HBAR Price Breaks Out or Pulls Back

With optimism clashing with weak participation, price levels now matter most. The main upside trigger remains $0.098.

This level aligns with wedge resistance and recent swing highs. A clean break and hold above it would invalidate the bearish divergence and reduce liquidation risk. If that happens, HBAR could target $0.107 first, followed by the $0.145 zone, potentially realizing the wedge target.

That would confirm that real demand has returned. Until then, the rally remains vulnerable. On the downside, $0.090 is the first key support. This level has held multiple times during recent consolidation. A breakdown below it would likely trigger long liquidations.

HBAR Price Analysis: TradingView

Below $0.090, the next major support sits near $0.076. A move to this zone would erase around 20% from current levels and signal that the breakout attempt has failed.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as “criminal aggression.” He advocates applying crypto-inspired governance principles to transform Russia’s political system.

His remarks, published ahead of the fourth anniversary of the invasion on February 24, 2026, link blockchain concepts to the long-term security of Europe and Ukraine.

Vitalik Buterin Condemns Aggression Amid Support for Ukraine

The Russo-Canadian innovator directly rejected narratives that frame the conflict as morally ambiguous. He emphasized that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cannot be justified.

Drawing on his Russian heritage and Canadian upbringing, he highlighted the dramatic contrast between:

Ukraine’s institutional improvements over the past decade and

Russia’s escalating repression, imperial ambitions, and military aggression.

“Ukraine needs a lot of help — to continue defending itself and to minimize human suffering from attacks on residential buildings, the energy system, etc.,” Buterin wrote, urging sustained international support to protect civilians and maintain Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

Buterin also criticized Western narratives that downplay Russian responsibility, asserting that Moscow’s leadership currently lacks incentive to pursue peace.

Based on this, he suggests that only continued military and economic pressure could compel meaningful negotiations.

Applying Crypto Principles to Political Reform

Drawing parallels from his experience in Ethereum and blockchain governance, Buterin proposed that long-term reform in Russia could benefit from:

Decentralized governance

Quadratic voting, and

Digital democracy

These mechanisms, already explored in crypto ecosystems, are designed to spread power, prevent authoritarian consolidation, and allow citizens to influence decisions proportionally.

“The goal is to build a country that, when the objective is improving people’s lives, will be maximally strong, but when the goal is oppressing minorities or aggression against neighbors, will be maximally uncoordinated and weak,” he explained.

Buterin emphasized that decentralization is not merely a conceptual exercise; it could guide real-world political transitions.

Systems like https://pol.is, which enable large-scale consensus-building and public deliberation, could help identify shared priorities among citizens and inform policy without relying solely on traditional hierarchical structures.

The remarks come only weeks after internet providers began blocking access at the network level, barring several crypto news sites on Russian home internet connections.

Vision for a “Beautiful Russia of the Future”

Nonetheless, beyond immediate conflict resolution, Buterin argued that European and Ukrainian security depends on fundamentally transforming Russia.

He envisioned a state in which internal governance structures prioritize public welfare and economic prosperity over military aggression, thereby reducing the likelihood of future conflicts.

Buterin stressed that this transformation requires new leadership and novel ideas within Russia’s political opposition.

Drawing lessons from crypto, he noted that entrenched systems rarely yield progress without fresh strategies, experimentation, and inclusive participation. He framed this approach as a two-step process:

First, Ukraine must receive every possible form of support to weaken the Russian military and compel a ceasefire.

Second, after Putin, the focus should shift to empowering moderate factions in Russia willing to adopt reform, peace, and decentralized governance principles.

Buterin’s proposal reflects a growing intersection between technological governance models and international politics.

While blockchain-inspired methods have been tested primarily in digital networks, applying these concepts to national governance represents a radical, untested approach.

Nonetheless, the Ethereum co-founder’s perspective offers a novel lens on conflict resolution and state-building. It suggests that beyond diplomacy or military pressure, systemic innovation may be essential for lasting peace.

Berachain price stunned the crypto market after a sudden and sharp rally. BERA surged nearly 210% during Wednesday’s intraday high before pulling back. 

The explosive move triggered widespread interest, yet on-chain data suggests the rally was largely speculation-driven rather than supported by sustained capital inflows.

What Caused the BERA Price To Rally?

The primary catalyst behind the BERA rally appears to be a major short squeeze. Funding rates fluctuated violently as bearish traders were caught off guard. Reports showed funding falling as low as negative 5,900%, signaling an extreme imbalance in derivatives positioning.

As shorts were liquidated, trading volume surged to $2.23 billion within 24 hours. This wave of forced buying amplified volatility and accelerated price appreciation. Short squeezes can create explosive upside, but they rarely provide long-term structural support for crypto price trends.

BERA Trading Volume. Source: Coinglass Why Should BERA Traders Be On Alert

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator offers critical insight into Berachain’s macro momentum. Despite the dramatic price increase, CMF remained below the zero line. This reading signals that capital outflows continued to dominate the asset during the rally.

Additionally, a bearish divergence formed on the chart. While the BERA price printed a higher high, the CMF posted a lower high. Such divergences often precede corrections, as weakening inflows fail to validate rising price action. This setup increases the probability of downside pressure returning.

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BERA CMF. Source: TradingView

Derivatives data suggest that long traders may now face elevated risk. As price momentum weakens, leveraged long positions could become vulnerable to liquidation. Market heat maps indicate a significant liquidation cluster just above $0.620.

A move below $0.626 could trigger approximately $5.26 million in long liquidations. Cascading liquidations often accelerate downside pressure in volatile altcoins. If selling intensifies, retail traders holding aggressive long exposure may experience amplified losses.

BERA Liquidation Map. Source: Coinglass BERA Price Could Face Correction

BERA price trades at $0.823 at publication after rallying nearly 210% during Wednesday’s intraday high. As the spike faded, bullish expectations cooled rapidly. Price retracement suggests that momentum traders have begun locking in gains.

Given the speculative nature of the surge and the bearish CMF divergence, further downside appears likely. A confirmed break below $0.795 support could send BERA toward $0.620. That decline would activate previously identified liquidation clusters and potentially extend losses toward $0.438.

BERA Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, renewed investor confidence could stabilize the price near $0.795. If inflows strengthen and speculative pressure subsides, BERA may rebound toward $1.077. A sustained move above that level would invalidate the bearish thesis and restore upward momentum.

Chainlink (LINK), one of the leading oracle platforms, has struggled to find a recovery throughout February. Despite multiple pieces of positive news, selling pressure has remained persistent.

As price action reaches a support level that has held for six years, February could be the decisive moment for LINK to enter a new price phase.

Positive Developments in February Fail to Offset Selling Pressure

Price data shows that the current level around $8.4 aligns with a long-term support trendline that has held since 2020. This makes LINK’s price behavior in the coming days a key reference point for analysts when forming longer-term projections.

Chainlink (LINK) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Recent signals from strategic partnerships could, in theory, strengthen LINK’s appeal.

Robinhood has launched a public testnet for Robinhood Chain, a Layer 2 network on Arbitrum designed for tokenized assets. More importantly, Chainlink serves as the platform’s oracle provider. The integration allows developers to leverage Chainlink’s data feeds, interoperability, and compliance standards to support advanced tokenization use cases.

Similarly, Ondo Finance, a platform focused on tokenized real-world assets, has selected Chainlink as its official data provider. The goal is to accelerate the adoption of tokenized stocks and ETFs. This collaboration enables tokenized U.S. securities to operate across Ethereum’s DeFi ecosystem, secured by institutional-grade data.

“Using Chainlink, DeFi protocols can now price Ondo Global Markets assets with best-in-class accuracy, manage positions safely, and provide users with more protection during volatile market conditions,” Ondo Finance stated.

The benefits from the Robinhood and Ondo partnerships have not translated into an immediate price increase. Weak overall market sentiment appears to be the main constraint. LINK showed no clear rebound from the six-year support level when these announcements were released.

On another front, exchange-side selling pressure has intensified. Exchange Inflow (Top 10) rose sharply in February 2026.

Chainlink Exchange Inflow (Top 10). Source: CryptoQuant

This metric measures the total amount of coins from the top 10 inflow transactions to exchanges. Elevated values indicate that large volumes of LINK are being deposited at once. This behavior often signals rising sell-side pressure.

A similar spike occurred in September last year. LINK’s price began to decline shortly afterward. The metric has now started rising again. This trend may suggest that some large holders are preparing to liquidate, adding to downward price pressure.

Sustained selling pressure could push LINK below its six-year support. However, partnerships with Robinhood and Ondo still provide long-term optimism. A meaningful recovery will likely require a more favorable market environment to align with Chainlink’s underlying fundamentals.

The Cardano price is up around 3% over the past 24 hours, trading near $0.26 at press time. This stands out as the broader crypto market remains mostly flat. On the chart, ADA is starting to form a familiar rebound structure that has led to rallies before. But on-chain and derivatives data suggest this setup may lack strong backing.

This creates a clear conflict between improving technical signals and weak investor conviction.

Rebound Pattern Is Forming Again — Just Like In December

Since early December, Cardano has been building a familiar structure. Between December 1 and February 11, ADA made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, made higher lows. RSI measures momentum by tracking buying and selling strength. When the price weakens while the RSI improves, it indicates that selling pressure is fading.

This is called a bullish divergence. It often appears near short-term bottoms.

The same pattern formed between December 1 and December 31, 2025. At that time, ADA printed lower lows, RSI made higher lows, and the price rebounded soon after. That rebound pushed Cardano up by about 32% before sellers returned.

Reversal Setup: TradingView

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Now, the structure looks similar again. On paper, this suggests that downside momentum is slowing.

But technical patterns only work when large participants support them. This time, that support is missing.

Whales and Derivatives Are Not Backing This Reversal Attempt

The biggest difference between December and now is whale behavior. In December, large Cardano holders were accumulating aggressively. Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA increased their supply from around 13.15 billion to nearly 13.5 billion. That steady buying helped fuel the rebound.

This time, the opposite is happening. Since mid-January, these same whales have been reducing exposure. On January 14, they held around 13.67 billion ADA. That figure has now dropped closer to 13.3 billion. The overall trend has shifted from accumulation to distribution.

ADA Whales: Santiment

Instead of preparing for upside, large holders are slowly exiting. That weakens the entire reversal structure.

Derivatives data tells the same story. Open interest, which measures the total value of active futures positions, is far lower than it was in early January, when the Cardano price last peaked. On January 5, open interest peaked near $884 million. It is now close to $407 million, down more than 50%.

Cardano’s Open Interest Dips: Coinglass

This matters because strong rallies usually need leverage participation. When open interest is rising, it means traders are committing capital to directional moves. When it is falling, momentum tends to fade quickly. Funding rates are also only mildly positive. That shows traders are not aggressively betting on upside. Nor is there enough short leverage power to trigger a short squeeze.

Funding Rate: Coinglass

In simple terms, whales are not buying, and derivatives traders are not committing. That leaves the rebound dependent on spot buyers alone.

Spot Flows Are Turning Negative, Keeping Pressure On the Cardano Price

Spot market data explains why confidence remains weak.

One key indicator is Exchange Netflow. This tracks whether coins are moving into or out of exchanges. When netflow is negative, coins are leaving exchanges, which usually suggests accumulation. When netflow turns positive, it shows increasing selling pressure. Between February 7 and February 11, Cardano saw mild outflows. That suggested some early buying interest.

But on February 12 (post the divergence flashing on the chart), netflow turned positive again, with inflows near $1.16 million. That means traders have started moving ADA back onto exchanges to sell. This shift is important.

Spot Flows: Coinglass

It shows that even short-term buyers are not committed. Instead of holding through the setup, they are taking quick exits. When spot selling returns this early, rebounds usually struggle. With whales absent, derivatives weak, and spot flows turning negative, conviction remains low.

From a price perspective, $0.28 is now the first level that matters. A clean break above $0.28 would show that buyers are finally gaining control. If that happens, ADA could attempt a move toward $0.32 and possibly $0.35 (a 30%+ upmove), similar to the December rebound’s size.

But without stronger support, that scenario remains unlikely.

Cardano Price Analysis: TradingView

On the downside, $0.24 is the first key support. A sustained break below this level would expose $0.22. If $0.22 fails, the entire rebound structure would be invalidated. Right now, Cardano is caught between improving technical momentum and weakening investor confidence.

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee as the crypto market may be heading into another turbulent stretch. Analysts are warning that more volatility could lie ahead as macro uncertainty builds and investor sentiment weakens, setting the stage for a potentially decisive moment before any meaningful recovery begins.

Crypto News of the Day: Standard Chartered Warns of Final Capitulation, Sees Bitcoin Falling to $50,000 Before Recovery

Standard Chartered is warning that crypto markets may face one final wave of selling pressure before staging a broader recovery. According to the bank, Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 in the months ahead.

In a note to clients, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s Head of Digital Asset Research, said the near-term outlook remains challenging amid intensifying macroeconomic headwinds and weakening ETF flows.

“I think we are going to see more pain and a final capitulation period for digital asset prices in the next few months,” Kendrick wrote. “The macro backdrop is unlikely to provide support until we near Warsh taking over at the Fed.”

According to Kendrick, the current correction has further to run before markets find a durable bottom. On the downside, he expects:

“BTC to USD 50,000 or just below, ETH to USD 1,400.”

Despite the bearish short-term call, Kendrick framed these levels as strategic entry points rather than structural breakdowns.

“They will be buy levels, for end-of-year forecasts of $100,000 (BTC) and $4,000 (ETH). Take care out there.”

The revised projections mark a notable reduction from the bank’s previous targets of $150,000 for Bitcoin and $7,500 for Ethereum, reported in a recent US Crypto News publication.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Still, Standard Chartered maintains a constructive long-term view once the current drawdown plays out.

Macro Headwinds and ETF Outflows

Kendrick emphasized that macroeconomic conditions are weighing heavily on digital assets. While the US economy may be softening, markets are not pricing in imminent rate cuts.

“The macro risk backdrop is also becoming more challenging – the US economy may be softening, but markets expect no further rate cuts until Warsh takes over as Fed chair in June,” he said.

With liquidity support likely delayed, investor behavior is shifting. The Standard Chartered executive observes that holdings of digital asset ETFs have fallen (albeit in an orderly manner), and the average Bitcoin ETF holding is now down around 25%.

“Against this backdrop, we think ETF holders are more likely to sell, rather than buy the dip, for now.”

The decline in ETF holdings is particularly significant given that spot Bitcoin ETFs were a key driver of inflows during the last rally. A sustained period of redemptions could amplify downside volatility if sentiment deteriorates further.

A More Resilient Market Structure with Recovery Path Into 2026

Despite forecasting further losses, Standard Chartered argues that the current sell-off differs materially from previous crypto downturns.

“Recent price action for digital assets has been challenging, to say the least. We expect further declines in the near term and are lowering our forecasts across the asset class. However, we expect prices to recover after hitting their lows in the next few months, and our long-term constructive view remains intact,” Kendrick said.

Importantly, he added that this sell-off has been less extreme than previous ones and has not seen the collapse of any digital asset platforms (as was the case in 2022). This, according to Kenrick, suggests that crypto as an asset class is maturing and becoming more resilient.

That structural resilience may ultimately support a stronger recovery phase once macro conditions stabilize and liquidity expectations shift.

Looking beyond the expected capitulation phase, Standard Chartered anticipates a rebound through the remainder of 2026.

“Once the lows have been reached, we expect the asset class to recover for the rest of 2026,” Kendrick said.

The bank now forecasts Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $4,000 by year-end 2026, with other digital assets likely to “broadly follow the majors.”

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Standard Chartered projects the Bitcoin price falling to $50,000 before recovery. Such a move would constitute a 26% drop below current levels.

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

MicroStrategy plans to issue more perpetual preferred stock: What it means for MSTR.

Four signs that Bitcoin is in the early stages of a bear market: How long could it last?

Elon Musk reveals X Money may launch soon, fueling crypto speculation.

Bitcoin whale accumulation resembles 2022 structure – Can it revive BTC price?

Solana long-term holder capitulation reaches a 3-year high as price nears losing $80.

A crypto lender has halted withdrawals: Is this another FTX moment?

XRP flashes historic rebound hint, but buying drops 85% — What’s next for price?

Crypto market sentiment falls into extreme fear: What does it mean for investors?

Crypto Equities Pre-Market Overview

CompanyClose As of February 11Pre-Market OverviewStrategy (MSTR)$126.14$127.54 (+1.11%)Coinbase (COIN)$153.20$154.29 (+0.71%)Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY)$20.40$20.46 (+0.29%)MARA Holdings (MARA)$7.56$7.64 (+1.06%)Riot Platforms (RIOT)$14.80$14.89 (+0.41%)Core Scientific (CORZ)$18.09$18.19 (+0.55%)

Crypto equities market open race: Google Finance

Solana price remains under sustained pressure, extending a three-week downtrend amid weak investor support and bearish macro conditions. 

SOL trading near $80, reflecting declining demand across the broader crypto market. Adding to concerns, long-term holders are now showing signs of weakening conviction.

Solana Profitable Supply Falls To Multi-Year Low

On-chain data shows that Solana’s supply in profit has dropped to 15%. This marks the lowest level since November 2022. A falling profitable supply typically indicates that most holders are underwater, which often reduces the incentive to sell further.

Historically, such low profitability has coincided with stabilization phases. Selling pressure tends to ease when fewer investors remain in profit. However, current conditions differ due to broad market weakness and deteriorating long-term holder sentiment, limiting the usual recovery effect.

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Solana Supply In Profit. Source: Glassnode

A key metric highlighting the shift is Liveliness, which measures long-term holder activity. The recent spike in Liveliness signals increased token movement from previously dormant wallets. This behavior suggests Solana LTHs are distributing rather than accumulating during the downturn.

When LTHs begin selling, macro momentum often weakens further. Their participation typically reflects high conviction. A sustained rise in Liveliness indicates eroding confidence, which can amplify bearish trends and reduce the probability of a swift Solana price recovery.

Solana Liveliness. Source: Glassnode Why Are LTHs Selling?

Signs of LTHs selling became evident toward the end of January. The long-term holder Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, or NUPL, fell below zero. This shift marked capitulation, meaning long-term holders moved into aggregate losses.

The last time Solana LTH’s NUPL dropped below zero was in May 2022. Capitulation at that time triggered widespread distribution before eventual stabilization. Selling by long-term investors during loss phases often reflects psychological exhaustion rather than tactical repositioning.

Solana LTH NUPL. Source: Glassnode

LTHs capitulated on January 24, yet the spike in Liveliness appeared roughly a week later. This delay suggests holders initially waited for a rebound. But as the Solana price continued to decline, those investors ultimately sold. If this dynamic persists, recovery prospects may weaken further.

SOL Price Downtrend Continues

Solana price trades near $80 and remains within a defined downtrend that began three weeks ago. SOL is holding just above the $79 support level. Sustained weakness in investor demand increases the risk of a breakdown below this threshold.

If LTH selling continues and the downtrend remains intact, SOL could lose $79 support. A confirmed breakdown may send Solana toward $70, which aligns with the 1.786 Fibonacci extension level. That zone represents the next major technical support.

Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Alternatively, a halt in long-term holder selling could improve momentum. If SOL breaches the descending trendline and clears $88 resistance, recovery may accelerate. A move toward $95 would invalidate the bearish thesis and signal renewed bullish strength in Solana price action.

Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 23.4% so far this year, after declining more than 6% in 2025. Prices have remained under sustained pressure, with the leading cryptocurrency currently trading at $67,214.

Amid this, a key question continues to weigh on market sentiment: when will the Bitcoin downtrend end? Four key signals suggest that the asset may still be in the early stages of a bear market, raising the possibility of further downside.

Capital Flight Confirms Bearish Sentiment Shift 

Investor flow data sends the first warning sign. CryptoQuant data showed new investor inflows have turned negative. An analyst said this indicates the ongoing sell-off is not being absorbed by new capital entering the market.

Bitcoin New Investor Flows Turn Negative. Source: CryptoQuant

The analyst explained that in bull markets, capital tends to accelerate during price drawdowns, as investors treat dips as buying opportunities. In contrast, the early stages of bear markets are often marked by capital withdrawal amid weakness.

“Current readings resemble post-ATH transitions, in which marginal buyers exit and price is driven by internal rotation, not net inflows. Without renewed inflows, upside moves remain corrective. This behavior is consistent with early bear market conditions: contracting liquidity and narrowing participation,” the analyst added.

Technical Pattern Signals Room for Another Leg Lower in Bitcoin

Crypto analyst Jelle pointed to historical cycle data to frame the current downside risk. He explained that in previous major bear markets, price bottomed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement measured from the prior cycle peak.

The earliest cycle saw a significantly deeper move, with Bitcoin falling roughly 64% beyond the 0.618 level. In later cycles, however, the depth of those breakdowns moderated. 

The most recent bear market bottom formed about 45% below that retracement threshold, reflecting a pattern of progressively shallower declines.

“0.618 from the current cycle high sits at $57,000. If Bitcoin bottoms just 30% below the 0.618 retracement this time around, we’re still looking at $42,000,” the analyst remarked.

Bitcoin Bottom Prediction. Source: X/Jelle

This suggests the price may fall further. Additionally, other experts have previously forecasted that Bitcoin could find a bottom even below $40,000.

Market Cycle Indicator Points to Further Downside Risk

In addition, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator, which tracks broader market phases, signals that bearish conditions began in October 2025. However, the metric has not yet entered what is typically classified as an extreme bear phase.

In previous cycles, the indicator has moved into the dark-blue zone, suggesting that lower levels may still lie ahead.

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant Whales Stack BTC, Yet Recovery May Take Time

Finally, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin whales have been accumulating during the recent dip, as exchange outflows continue to rise. The 30-day simple moving average of exchange outflows has climbed to 3.2%.

This pattern closely mirrors the first half of 2022. Although whale accumulation is often interpreted as a constructive signal, history suggests caution. In the previous cycle, a broader recovery did not materialize until early 2023.

The similarity in structure suggests that while smart money may be positioning, it does not necessarily mean an immediate rebound is imminent. Instead, the data implies that the market could remain under pressure in the near term, even as long-term holders continue to build exposure.

Separately, Kaiko analysis suggested that Bitcoin still appears to be tracking its traditional four-year cycle. Based on that framework, the firm stated,

“The four-year cycle framework predicts we should be at the 30% mark.”

Taken together, these four indicators point to the possibility that Bitcoin could remain under pressure. However, when the bear market will end remains a point of division among experts.

Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, said it is unlikely that Bitcoin will see a V-shaped recovery before the summer of 2026. Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, has also suggested that the current bearish phase could end in Q3 2026. 

In contrast, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has expressed a more optimistic view, indicating that the end of the crypto winter could be approaching.

As part of the strategy to turn X (formerly Twitter) into a “super app” or Everything App, a key missing piece, X Money, is beginning to take shape.

X aims to be more than a social media platform. Elon Musk wants to transform it into a personal finance game-changer. Users could handle messaging, shopping, and full personal asset management in one place.

Why Are Crypto Investors Excited About X Money?

During an xAI “All Hands” presentation in February 2026, Elon Musk revealed that X Money is already running in internal testing among X employees. A limited rollout to users is expected within the next one to two months.

X Money has secured money transmitter licenses in more than 40 US states. It also established strategic partnerships with major payment giants such as Visa last year.

“For X Money, we actually had X Money live in closed beta within the company, and we expect in the next month or two to go to a limited external beta and then to go worldwide to all X users. And this is really intended to be the place where all the money is, the central source of all monetary transactions. So it’s really going to be a game-changer,” Elon Musk said.

Musk aims to push monthly active users past 600 million and ultimately reach 1 billion. Analysts compare this ambition to building an everything app similar to China’s WeChat.

As a result, X Money represents a major opportunity for any crypto project that accepts it as a payment method or is indirectly connected to the platform.

However, X Money has never confirmed that crypto will be used as a payment option. Investors, meanwhile, continue to build their own narratives.

The first speculation centers on Dogecoin (DOGE). This meme coin closely aligns with Elon Musk’s personal brand. The theory stems from Musk’s past comments suggesting DOGE could be suitable for micropayments.

The second speculation involves XRP. This hypothesis is linked to Cross River Bank, a financial partner working with X to process payment flows. Since 2014, Cross River Bank has integrated Ripple’s protocol to enable real-time cross-border payments between the US and Western Europe.

Despite these narratives, DOGE and XRP prices showed no significant reaction to news of X Money’s upcoming launch.

In the coming months, once X Money officially goes live as planned, its impact on crypto markets and the global financial system may become clearer.

Bitcoin price remains under pressure, extending its recent decline without a confirmed reversal. BTC trades near $66,996 at publication, reflecting cautious sentiment across the crypto market. 

Growing uncertainty has pushed many investors toward selling, though one major cohort is actively attempting to stabilize price action.

Bitcoin Holders Are Underwater

The Spent Output Profit Ratio, or SOPR, highlights rising skepticism among Bitcoin investors. SOPR measures the ratio between the USD value of sold coins and their original purchase price. When the indicator remains above 1, investors are selling at a profit.

Recently, SOPR has trended closer to or below 1. Readings below 1 signal that investors are selling at a loss. This behavior often reflects fear-driven capitulation rather than calculated distribution.

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Bitcoin SOPR. Source: Glassnode

Historically, extended periods of SOPR below 1 have coincided with local bottoms. Loss realization can mark exhaustion among weak hands. However, sustained negative readings also confirm fragile sentiment and reduced short-term conviction in Bitcoin price recovery.

Whales Arrive To Bitcoin’s Rescue

While smaller investors sell, Bitcoin whales are rotating capital back into BTC. Addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC have accumulated more than 70,000 BTC since the start of the month. This accumulation equals roughly $4.6 billion at current prices.

Such large-scale buying provides structural support. Whale demand appears to be offsetting part of the panic selling. Without this absorption, the Bitcoin price could have experienced deeper downside acceleration during recent volatility.

Bitcoin Whale Supply. Source: Santiment

Exchange whale outflows provide further insight into macro positioning. This metric tracks the percentage of exchange balances moving to large entities daily. Since Bitcoin dropped below $80,000, the 30-day simple moving average has climbed to 3.2%.

This pattern resembles the structure seen in the first half of 2022. During that period, whales accumulated in waves before the next bull market began. Their steady withdrawals signaled long-term positioning rather than short-term speculation.

Bitcoin Exchange Whale Outflow. Source: Glassnode

However, historical parallels require caution. In 2022, price consolidation persisted for months before recovery gained traction. Whale accumulation does not guarantee immediate upside momentum. Broader macro conditions and liquidity cycles still influence Bitcoin’s trajectory.

BTC Price Finds Support

Bitcoin price trades at $66,996, holding slightly above $66,749 support. The recent rejection near $70,610 reflects psychological resistance tied to profit-taking. Sellers appear active near that zone, limiting upward continuation attempts.

In the short term, BTC must defend $65,000 while consolidating below $70,610. Sustained stabilization could build momentum for a breakout. A confirmed recovery would require reclaiming $78,656 as a support level.

Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

If whale accumulation slows, downside risk may intensify. Loss of current support could send Bitcoin toward $63,185. A deeper slide toward $60,000 would invalidate the bullish thesis and reinforce the broader corrective trend.

BlockFills, a Chicago-based crypto lender and liquidity provider, has temporarily halted client deposits and withdrawals.

The move comes as the crypto market continues to experience notable volatility, with asset prices trending lower.

Crypto Liquidity Provider BlockFills Stops Withdrawals and Deposits During Market Stress

BlockFills operates as a cryptocurrency solutions firm and digital asset liquidity provider. It serves approximately 2,000 institutional clients, including crypto-focused hedge funds and asset managers. In 2025, the firm handled $60 billion in trading volume.

The company said in a statement posted on X that the suspension was implemented last week and remains in effect. According to BlockFills, the decision was made in light of “recent market and financial conditions” and is intended to “protect both clients and the firm.”

Despite the suspension of deposits and withdrawals, clients have continued to trade on the platform. BlockFills said users are still able to open and close positions in spot and derivatives markets, as well as select other circumstances.

The company also said management is working closely with investors and clients to resolve the situation and restore liquidity to the platform.

“The firm has also been in active dialogue with our clients throughout this process, including information sessions and an opportunity to ask questions of senior management. BlockFills is working tirelessly to bring this matter to a conclusion and will continue to regularly update our clients as developments warrant,” the statement read.

In the crypto industry, withdrawal freezes often trigger concern. The sector’s last severe downturn in 2022 saw several high-profile lenders, including Celsius, BlockFi, Voyager, FTX, and more, halt withdrawals before filing for bankruptcy.

Crypto Firms’ Withdrawal Pause and Subsequent Bankruptcy Filings. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Many of the crypto bankruptcies, such as those of FTX, BlockFi, and Three Arrows Capital, were interconnected, leading to a domino effect in the market. The events led to market destabilization and negatively impacted sentiment.

Nonetheless, it’s worth noting that temporary suspensions can also function as defensive measures during periods of intense market stress. At present, there is no publicly available evidence suggesting that BlockFills is insolvent.

Meanwhile, the suspension comes as some market participants warn of a renewed “crypto winter.” Since the start of the year, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has declined by more than 22%.

Last Friday, Bitcoin fell to around $60,000, marking its lowest level since October 2024. The asset remains roughly 50% below its all-time high of approximately $126,000, recorded in October.

XRP price today is trading near $1.38, showing early signs of stabilization after weeks of weakness. On the chart, a familiar rebound pattern has started forming, similar to past setups that led to strong rallies. But on-chain and derivatives data are not confirming the optimism.

Buying pressure has dropped sharply, long-term holders are pulling back, and leverage risks remain high. This creates a conflict between what the chart suggests and how investors are actually behaving.

XRP Price Builds a Familiar Rebound Pattern

Since late January, XRP has been forming a structure that previously preceded major recoveries.

Between January 31 and February 11, the price made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed higher lows. RSI measures buying and selling strength. When price weakens, but RSI improves, it signals that selling pressure is fading and momentum may be turning.

A similar setup, also on the 12-hour chart, appeared in late December 2025.

At that time, XRP showed the same divergence before reclaiming the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on January 2. After that reclaim, the price rallied over 28%. Now, the structure looks similar again. EMA is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices to show short-term momentum. 

XRP’s History: TradingView

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The current divergence suggests that downside momentum is slowing. If XRP manages to reclaim the $1.50 zone, which aligns closely with the 20 EMA and prior resistance, it could attract stronger buying interest.

But the on-chain data does not support the rebound theory. At least, not yet.

Exchange Flows and Holders Show Buying Has Collapsed

On-chain metrics explain why the rebound signal is struggling.

One key indicator is Exchange Net Position Change. This measures how the total amount of XRP held on exchanges has changed over the past 30 days. In simple terms, it shows whether exchange balances are rising or falling on a monthly basis. When the number is strongly negative, exchange balances are shrinking, usually showing accumulation or outflows.

On February 8, XRP recorded net outflows of around 107 million tokens. By February 11, outflows had dropped to about 16 million tokens.

Exchange Flows Weaken: Glassnode

That is an 85% collapse in buying pressure. This means investors are no longer reducing exchange balances at the same pace. Demand has weakened sharply, even as the chart flashed a bullish setup.

The same pattern appears in Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks wallets holding XRP for more than 155 days.

On February 1, long-term holders were adding around 337 million XRP. By February 11, their accumulation had fallen to about 128 million XRP.

That represents a drop of more than 60%.

Hodlers Not Convinced: Glassnode

In simple terms, exchange balances are rising, clearly led by weakening long-term accumulation. The investors who usually support strong rebounds are staying cautious. But why?

Derivatives Risk Explains Why Holders Are Hesitating

In the Binance XRP/USDT perpetual market, medium-term liquidation data shows that short positions dominate. Over the next 30 days, short-side liquidation exposure stands near $148 million, while long-side exposure is closer to $83 million.

This shows that traders are leaning defensive and positioning for downside risk. Long-term holders seem to be siding with the majority here.

XRP Liquidation Map: Coinglass

Short-term positioning tells another story.

On the one-day timeframe, this time on Gate, long liquidations are near $63.9 million, while shorts are around $51 million. This means 30% more positions are currently exposed on the long side. If the XRP price drops even slightly, led by a weak and fearful market, long positions could be forced out quickly, leading to a deeper crash.

Short-Term XRP Liquidation Map: Coinglass

Long-term holders are aware of this risk, as long liquidations have previously impacted optimism. Therefore, instead of chasing a weak rebound, they are waiting for confirmation and siding with the medium-term positions, mainly shorts. This is why spot buying pressure has not returned despite the bullish divergence.

XRP Price Levels To Track Now

With technical optimism clashing with weak conviction, price levels now matter most. The key downside level sits near $1.34.

This zone aligns with the largest long liquidation cluster. If XRP closes below $1.34, it could trigger forced selling and invalidate the rebound structure. In that case, the price could slide toward $1.12. On the upside, $1.50 remains the critical barrier.

This level aligns with the 20 EMA and a psychological resistance. A sustained move above $1.50 would likely restore confidence and bring long-term buyers back. Without that breakout, bounces are likely to remain unstable.

XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

Right now, XRP is stuck between improving momentum and falling conviction. The chart says pressure is easing.

On-chain data says demand is missing. And derivatives data says risk remains high. Until XRP holds above $1.34 and reclaims $1.50, the rebound thesis remains weak.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 5 on Thursday, signaling a sharp deterioration in market sentiment as digital asset prices continue to slide.

The decline reflects intensifying panic among investors, with risk appetite eroding amid broader global market uncertainty.

Crypto Sentiment Sinks Deeper Into “Extreme Fear” 

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index measures the overall emotional state of the cryptocurrency market on a scale from 0 to 100. Readings between 0 and 24 indicate Extreme Fear, 25 to 49 signal Fear, 50 represents Neutral conditions, 51 to 74 reflect Greed, and 75 to 100 denote Extreme Greed.

At 5, the index places the market firmly in Extreme Fear territory. The latest drop comes amid a steady decline in sentiment over recent weeks. 

Extreme Fear in Crypto Markets. Source:Alternative.me

A month ago, the index stood at 26, already within the Fear range. It slid to 12 a week earlier and registered 11 just a day before reaching its current low. The rapid deterioration highlights how quickly confidence has unraveled as prices weakened.

The collapse in crypto sentiment coincides with a broader surge in global economic anxiety, as evidenced by the World Uncertainty Index. The index tracks how frequently the term “uncertainty” appears in Economist Intelligence Unit country reports. 

It covers more than 140 countries and provides a quarterly, cross-country indicator widely used in macroeconomic research and global risk analysis.

In the third quarter of 2025, the World Uncertainty Index surged to an all-time high above 100,000. In the fourth quarter, it was recorded at 94,947. 

Those levels are roughly double the peaks observed during previous major crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Brexit, and the Eurozone debt crisis.

“Rising geopolitical tensions, volatile markets, and policy uncertainty are driving the spike, as investors struggle to price in what comes next,” Coin Bureau wrote.

World Uncertainty Index. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

The elevated reading signals heightened anxiety across global markets as investors grapple with unpredictable economic and political conditions. Against this backdrop, the crypto market’s plunge into Extreme Fear reflects not only falling prices but also a broader retreat from risk assets worldwide.

Crypto Market Cap Falls 22% in 2026 as Bitcoin and Ethereum Extend Losses 

The collapse in sentiment comes as the broader crypto market continues to move downwards. In 2026, total market capitalization has fallen by more than 22%, reversing the optimism that defined the start of the year.

Bitcoin, which began January on a stronger footing, ended the month down by more than 10%. It has dropped another 14.6% so far in February.

Ethereum has also fallen 33.8% year to date. The sustained drawdown has weighed on market activity.

Analysts Weigh Crypto Market’s Next Move 

Amid these bear market conditions, the community remains uncertain about what comes next. Analyst Kyle Chassé pointed to historical precedents, noting that similarly depressed readings in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index were seen in 2018, March 2020, and in the aftermath of the FTX collapse in 2022.

“Every time, it marked a massive opportunity window. No, it doesn’t guarantee the bottom. But historically, peak fear is where asymmetry lives,” he said.

Other analysts argue the current downturn could represent a shakeout phase before a potential breakout. Still, it remains unclear when, or if, a broader crypto market recovery will follow. 

Ray Youssef, CEO of NoOnes, has forecasted that Bitcoin could trade sideways until summer 2026. He noted that the exact location of the Bitcoin bottom remains unclear and that current dynamics increasingly suggest the market has entered a protracted reassessment of risk.

Youssef pointed to several structural factors, including US political and monetary cycles, persistent inflation constraints, weakened retail capital flows, and cautious institutional demand following heavy losses.

“As a result, we are unlikely to see a V-shaped reversal before the summer of 2026. More likely, we will see regular rebounds, triggered by short-covering and short squeezes,” he told BeInCrypto.

According to Youssef, such rebounds could be strong, ranging between 20% and 30%, and potentially prolonged. However, he warned they may ultimately prove to be bull traps. 

He stated that crypto traditionally remains in a long accumulation phase within a single range before the start of a true bull market.

Uniswap price is up around 3% over the past 24 hours, trading near $3.40. But this small move hides what really happened on February 11. That day, UNI surged nearly 42% to a high near $4.57 after news linked Uniswap to BlackRock’s tokenized fund expansion.

Since then, sellers have erased about 26% of that rally. This raises a key question: was this institutional-driven breakout a real trend shift, or a trap for retail buyers?

Uniswap Price Breakout on February 11 Was Driven by Retail Momentum

The rally on February 11 did not happen randomly.

On the 12-hour chart, Uniswap price had been forming a bullish setup since mid-January. Between January 19 and February 11, UNI made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, made higher lows. RSI measures momentum by tracking buying and selling strength. When price falls, but RSI rises, it signals a bullish divergence, often warning that selling pressure is weakening.

Bullish Structure: TradingView

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This divergence suggested that a rebound was building.

That signal was confirmed on February 11. On that day, On-Balance Volume, or OBV, broke above a long-term descending trendline. OBV tracks whether volume is flowing into or out of an asset. When OBV breaks upward, it usually shows growing retail participation. The timing was important.

Retail Participation Behind The Rally: TradingView

RSI divergence had been in place for weeks. OBV only broke out on February 11, exactly when the BlackRock-linked news hit the market. This shows that retail traders reacted aggressively to the headline, rushing into UNI.

With momentum and volume aligned, the Uniswap price surged to around $4.57 in a single session. But the structure of that candle raised early warning signs.

On the 12-hour chart, the breakout candle formed with a very long upper wick and a small body. This means buyers pushed the price higher, but sellers absorbed most of the move before the close. It was the first sign that a strong supply existed near $4.50. The rally looked powerful. But distribution had already started.

Whale Selling Near $4.57 Explains the Sharp Rejection

The long wick on February 11 was not driven by random selling. Whale data shows who was responsible.

On that day, supply held by large Uniswap holders dropped sharply from about 648.46 million UNI to 642.51 million UNI. That is a reduction of roughly 5.95 million tokens. At prices near $4.57, this represents selling pressure worth about $27 million.

This was not profit-taking by small traders. It was a coordinated distribution by large wallets.

Uniswap Whales In Action: Santiment

While retail buyers were chasing the breakout, whales were exiting into strength. This explains why the UNI price failed to hold above $4.50 and why the rally collapsed so quickly. Once large holders finished selling, buy-side momentum weakened. Without whale support, the market could not sustain elevated prices.

The result was a fast retracement. From the $4.57 peak, the Uniswap price fell about 26%. Most late buyers were possibly immediately pushed into losses. This confirms that the BlackRock-related surge became a liquidity event for large holders.

Retail provided the demand. Whales provided the supply.

4-Hour Chart Shows the Uniswap Price Rally Target Was Already Completed

The lower timeframe explains why the pullback started so quickly. On the 4-hour chart, Uniswap had been forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern inside a descending channel. This is a classic reversal structure that often signals a short-term breakout.

On February 11, UNI broke above the neckline of this pattern and quickly reached its projected target near $4.57. In technical terms, the setup had already completed its measured move.

Uniswap Price Structure: TradingView

At the same time, the 4-hour OBV divergence became clear. Between late January and February 11, UNI moved higher, but OBV continued trending lower. This shows that volume strength was weakening even as the price rose. This bearish OBV divergence warned that the breakout was not being supported by sustained retail demand. Plus, the OBV is currently trending down, showing retail offloading.

Retail traders focused on the price move. Whales focused on the structure. By the time most buyers entered, the rally was already mature. Now, price is drifting near $3.40 while volume continues to weaken. This suggests that speculative demand is fading.

Uniswap Price Analysis: TradingView

If UNI holds above $3.21, the market may attempt consolidation. But this support is fragile because it is built on short-term buying, not long-term accumulation.

A breakdown below $3.21 would likely trigger another sell wave. In that case, the next major level sits near $2.80, which marks the head of the prior reversal pattern. A move to this zone would erase all of the BlackRock-driven gains.

To regain strength, Uniswap price must reclaim the $3.68 to $3.96 region. This area now acts as a major obstacle after the failed breakout. Only a sustained move above it would reopen upside toward $4.57.

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, plans to issue additional perpetual preferred stock in a bid to ease investor concerns over the volatility of its common shares, according to its chief executive officer.

The announcement comes as Strategy’s stock, trading under the ticker MSTR, has fallen nearly 17% year to date.

CEO Says Preferred Shares Could Become Major Funding Tool for Strategy 

In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Strategy CEO Phong Le addressed Bitcoin’s price swings. He attributed its volatility to its digital characteristics. When BTC rises, Strategy’s digital asset treasury plan drives outsized gains in its common stock. 

Conversely, during downturns, the shares tend to decline more sharply. He noted that Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), including Strategy, are engineered to follow the leading cryptocurrency.

To address this dynamic, the company is promoting its perpetual preferred shares, branded “Stretch.” 

“We’ve engineered something to protect investors who want access to digital capital without that volatility and that’s Stretch,” Le told Bloomberg.” To me, the story of the day is Stretch closes at $100 exactly how it was engineered to perform.”

The preferred shares offer a variable dividend, currently set at 11.25%, with the rate reset monthly to encourage trading near the $100 par value.

It’s worth noting that preferred stock has so far represented only a small portion of Strategy’s capital-raising activity. The company sold approximately $370 million in common stock and about $7 million in perpetual preferred shares to fund its previous three weekly Bitcoin purchases.

However, Le said, Strategy is actively educating investors about what preferred shares can do.

“It takes some seasoning. It takes some marketing,” he said. “This year, we have seen extremely high liquidity with our preferreds, about 150 times other preferreds, and as we go throughout the course of this year, we expect Stretch to be a big product for us. We will start to transition from equity capital to preferred capital.”

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bet Under Pressure With Shares Trading Below Net Asset Value

The shift could prove important as Strategy’s traditional funding model faces pressure. Strategy continues to expand its Bitcoin holdings, purchasing more than 1,000 BTC earlier this week. As of the latest data, the firm holds 714,644 BTC.

However, the recent decline in Bitcoin’s price has weighed heavily on the company’s balance sheet. At current market prices of around $67,422 per coin, Bitcoin is trading well below Strategy’s average purchase price of approximately $76,056. As a result, the company’s holdings reflect an unrealized loss of roughly $6.1 billion.

The company’s common stock has mirrored that decline, falling 5% on Wednesday alone. MSTR is roughly down 17% so far this year. In comparison, Bitcoin has fallen more than 22% over the same period.

MSTR Stock Performance. Source: Google Finance

As mentioned before, Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation strategy has relied more on equity issuance. A key metric in this model is its multiple to net asset value, or mNAV, which measures how the company’s stock trades relative to the value of its Bitcoin per share.

According to SaylorTracker data, Strategy’s diluted mNAV was approximately 0.95x, indicating the stock traded at a discount to the Bitcoin backing each share.

Micro (Strategy) mNAV. Source: SaylorTracker

That discount complicates the company’s approach. When shares trade above net asset value, Strategy can issue stock, purchase additional Bitcoin, and potentially create accretive value for shareholders. When shares trade below net asset value, new issuance risks diluting shareholders instead.

By increasing its reliance on perpetual preferred stock, Strategy appears to be adjusting its capital structure to sustain its Bitcoin acquisition strategy while attempting to address investor concerns over volatility and valuation pressure.

For MSTR shareholders, the shift toward perpetual preferred stock could reduce dilution risk. By relying less on common equity issuance, Strategy may preserve Bitcoin per share and limit pressure from discounted share sales. 

However, the move also introduces higher fixed dividend obligations, increasing financial commitments that could weigh on the company if Bitcoin remains under pressure. Ultimately, the plan reshapes the risk profile rather than eliminating the underlying volatility tied to its Bitcoin treasury.