azun

🌎 How to read the macro context in crypto

Crypto does not live in isolation, it responds to the global context.

Factors to look at:

Interest rates.
Global liquidity.
Regulatory news.
ETFs or institutional adoption.

Examples:

Negative macro data → $BTC weakens.
ETF approval → boost in the market.
Adverse regulation → pressure on altcoins.

Conclusion:

The chart shows the effect, the macro explains the cause.

🧠 How to strengthen your trading mindset

The mindset is what supports your strategy when things don't go well.

Keys:

Accept uncertainty.
Separate outcome from process.
Think in series of trades, not in just one.

Examples:

$BNB well-executed trade but losing → was still correct.
$XRP wins by luck without a plan → is not a good habit.
$RESOLV → does not define you by an outcome.

Conclusion:

Your job is to execute well, not to control the market.

🔄 How to identify reversals (trend changes)

A reversal is not a strong candle; it is a change in structure.

Keys:

Break of previous highs/lows.
Increase in volume at the turn.
Subsequent confirmation (do not anticipate).

Examples:

$BTC was in a downtrend → breaks last relevant high → possible reversal.
$XRP drops sharply, but does not break structure → just a bounce.
$SOL loses higher lows → real bearish alert.

Conclusion:

A turn is confirmed, not guessed.

💣 Repeating Mental Errors

The most dangerous errors are not technical, they are mental.

Common errors:

Confirm only what you want to believe.
Ignore contrary signals.
Change plans out of emotion.
Fall in love with a token.

Examples:

$BTC falls → you only seek bullish opinions.
$BNB loses support → you don't want to sell.
$PEPE → you cling → you don't exit.

Conclusion:

You don't lose money because of the market, you lose it for not questioning yourself.

📊 How to understand market cycles

The market does not always go up or down; it moves in cycles.

Typical phases:

Accumulation.
Bullish trend.
Distribution.
Bearish trend.

Examples:

$BTC long sideways → possible accumulation.
$ETH breaks highs → bullish phase.
$BNB loses strength after rising a lot → distribution.

Conclusion:

Understanding the cycle helps you not to enter late or exit early.

🧠 How to Manage Frustration

Frustration arises when your expectations do not match reality.

Keys:

Accept that losing is part of the process.
Do not act to "get even."
Take breaks when you are emotional.

Examples:

$BNB stop loss → you do not enter again without a signal.
$ETH failed trade → you rest, do not force it.
$PEPE it goes wrong → you do not chase another out of impulse.

Conclusion:

Frustration is not eliminated; it is managed.

🧱 How to operate ceilings and floors

Ceilings and floors are areas where the price usually reacts, not exact points.

Keys:

Look for confirmation before entering.
Do not anticipate just because "it is high" or "it is low".
Operate areas, not lines.

Examples:

$BTC reaches historical resistance → wait for rejection before shorting.
$BNB touches strong support → wait for a bounce before buying.
$XRP breaks the floor → it is not a buy, it is weakness.

Conclusion:

It is not about guessing the turn, but about confirming it.

💸 How to think about the long term

The long term is not "buy and forget", it is buy and manage.

Keys:

Choose solid projects.
Accept volatility.
Do not react to every candle.
Review, do not obsess.

Examples:

$BTC falls 20% → do not sell in panic if your thesis remains intact.
$ETH rises strongly → take partial → rebalance.
$SOL loses fundamentals → reevaluate.

Conclusion:

The long term rewards patience… and discipline.

📊 How to build a crypto portfolio

Not all your capital should be in a single token.

Keys:

Mix strong assets with higher risk ones.
Don't overload on memecoins.
Adjust according to your profile.

Examples:

Example portfolio:
$BTC 50%
$ETH 30%
Altcoins (sol, xrp) 15%
Memecoins (shib, PEPE) 5%

Everything in one altcoin → unnecessary high risk.

Conclusion:

Diversifying does not maximize gains, it reduces fatal errors.

🧠 How to avoid overconfidence

After winning, your biggest enemy is your ego.

Keys:

Do not automatically increase risk.
Do not skip rules based on "feeling".
Remember that a good streak does not guarantee the next.

Examples:

$BTC 3 winning trades → maintain the same risk.
$BNB you feel confident → enter without a signal → error.
$SHIB → you think you "see it" → wake-up call.

Conclusion:

Confidence is good, overconfidence is dangerous.

📉 How to trade corrections

A correction is a drop within a trend, not a trend change.

Keys:

Do not confuse correction with a bear market.
Wait for the price to respect supports.
Do not buy "blindly".

Examples:

B$BNB drops 10% within an uptrend → possible healthy correction.

$XRP drops to key support → wait for reaction before entering.
$PEPE loses structure → it is no longer a correction, it is weakness.

Conclusion:

Corrections are opportunities, not signs of panic.

💣Advanced errors that cost dearly

When you already know the basics, the errors change… but they remain dangerous.

Common errors:

Increasing risk after winning.
Relaxing rules due to confidence.
Overexposing yourself in a single asset.
Ignoring macro context.

Examples:

$BNB you win well → you double the size → a loss wipes out gains.
$ETH you feel confident → you enter without a signal → costly error.
Everything in $ZEC → negative news → strong hit.

Conclusion:

Experience does not eliminate errors, it demands more discipline.

📊 How to evaluate setups before entering

Not all setups are worth your capital.

Simple checklist:

Is it in favor of the trend?
Does it have a clear level?
Is the risk/reward good?
Am I calm when entering?

Examples:

$BTC breaks resistance with volume → valid setup.
$BNB in the middle of the range → weak setup.
$BONK without liquidity → better not to trade.

Conclusion:

A good trade starts before clicking.

🧠How to manage expectations

Unrealistic expectations lead to frustration and poor decisions.

Keys:

Accept that not all trades win.
Don't expect to double your account in weeks.
Focus on consistency, not on hits.

Examples:

$BTC rises 5% → valid gain, not "a small thing". You have to know how to take the gain, and not expect to become a millionaire with a single trade.

$ETH small winning trade → still progress.

$PEPE does not explode → is not failure.

Conclusion:

Realistic expectations = healthier decisions.

📉 Buy the dip or play with shorts: what is better?

When the market falls sharply, two approaches arise:

🟢 1) Buy the dip

👉 You bet that the price will bounce back in the medium/long term.
When it makes sense:
In strong assets (BTC, ETH).
In corrections within a larger bullish trend.
If your goal is to hold.
Example: $BTC falls from 90k to 77k → you buy expecting it to rise again in months.
Risks:
The price may continue to fall.
You need patience and capital without leverage.

🔴 2) Play with shorts (profit on the way down)

👉 You bet that the price will continue to fall.
When it makes sense:
In a clear downtrend.
In breakouts of important supports.
For active traders.
Example: BTC breaks support at 80k → you open a short aiming for 75k.
Risks:
The price may bounce back sharply.
Leverage increases losses if you are wrong.

⚖️ Which is better?

👉 There is no universally better one. It depends on your profile:
holder: Buy the dip
Trader: plays with shorts

🧠 Smart strategy

Many combine both:
They buy strong areas for the long term.
They operate shorts in bearish breakdowns for the short term.

🔄 How to trade pullbacks

A pullback is when the price temporarily returns before continuing the trend.

Key points:

Trade only in favor of the trend.
Wait for the price to respect support.
Do not enter in the middle of the movement.

Examples:

$BTC in a downtrend → pulls back to support → safer entry.

$XRP breaks resistance → comes back to test → opportunity.

$SHIB falls without a trend → not a pullback, it's weakness.

Conclusion:

Buying pullbacks is better than chasing rises.

💣 Common mistakes of beginners

Many mistakes are repeated over and over.

Typical mistakes:

Not using stop loss.
Trading without a plan.
Increasing risk after losing.
Trading by emotion.

Examples:

$XRP no stop → a drop → big loss.
$SOL you lose → double size → greater damage.
$DOGE → you enter for hype → you get trapped.

Conclusion:

It's not a lack of talent, it's a lack of discipline.

📊 How to use timeframes correctly

A single timeframe does not tell the whole story.

Keys:

Larger timeframe = trend.
Smaller timeframe = entry.
Do not trade against the larger timeframe.

Examples:

$DCR bullish on daily → look for longs on 1H.
$SOL bearish on daily → avoid longs on 15m.
$BROCCOLI714 no structure in larger timeframe → better not to trade.

Conclusion:

The trend dictates, the smaller timeframe executes.

🚀 How to properly trade breakouts

A valid breakout is not just when the price crosses a level, but how it crosses it.

Keys:

It must break with volume.
It must close above (or below) the level.
Ideally, it should respect the level on the pullback.

Examples:

$BNB breaks resistance with volume → wait for pullback → safer entry.
$XRP breaks, but returns below the level → false breakout.
$SHIB breaks without volume → high probability of a trap.

Conclusion:

Do not chase breakouts, wait for confirmation.

💸 How to protect profits in volatile markets

Winning is pointless if you don't know how to keep it.

Keys:

Take partial profits.
Move stop to break-even.
Do not turn profit into loss.

Examples:

$BTC +20% → you take 30% → you secure part.
$SOL rises sharply → stop at entry → zero risk.
$PEPE +50% → you sell a part → you reduce exposure.

Conclusion:

Protecting profits is part of winning.