Andy-加密不落客

Bitcoin $BTC today (February 12) continues to show weakness, reported at around $67,500, as the market digests the headwinds brought by strong non-farm payroll expectations for rate cuts; there have been no new meetings recently, but Dallas Fed President Logan just delivered a hawkish speech yesterday.
📉 Bitcoin Market Overview Today
· Instant Price: Approximately $67,402 - $67,506 (down over 1% intraday).
· Liquidation Situation: Over 140,000 people liquidated across the network within 24 hours, totaling $465 million (mainly due to strong long position liquidations).
· Key Trigger: Last night, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January (far exceeding the expected 55,000), which directly weakened the Fed's rate cut expectations and triggered a sell-off in risk assets.

The price of Bitcoin and MSTR (MicroStrategy) shares has formed a highly convergent leveraged proxy relationship. MSTR is no longer essentially a software company, but rather a 'Bitcoin leveraged ETF': its beta value reaches 1.77, showing greater elasticity when the coin price rises, and significantly magnified declines when it falls.
The latest holdings show that MSTR holds over 714,000 bitcoins, with an average cost of about $76,056. As the price of Bitcoin fell to $69,000, the unrealized losses expanded to between $4.8 billion and $6.5 billion, and MSTR's stock price has plummeted nearly 80% from its peak.
In terms of market capitalization, the key indicator is the premium rate (mNAV). When the premium is above 1, the company can issue shares at low prices to finance and buy coins at high prices to create a positive feedback loop; however, the current premium has compressed to 1.09 and even briefly fell below 1, resulting in stagnant financing and interrupting the traditional 'issue shares to buy coins' cycle. Market focus has shifted from 'whether to sell coins' to 'whether to refinance at low cost', which will determine whether this highly leveraged model can survive a bear market.