Bitcoin has just broken the major support of $70,000, testing $66,675 today, February 5, 2026. For the crowd, it's panic. For those who survived the "Black Thursday" of March 2020, it's a déjà vu that smells of accumulation.

Let's analyze why this chaos is a liquidity anomaly and how the data proves we are at the final capitulation point.

1. "Black Thursday" 2.0: A leverage purge, no conviction

In March 2020, BTC fell by 50% not due to a technical flaw, but due to a global liquidity crisis. Today, the mechanics are the same:

  • Cascade liquidations: More than $775 million in "Long" positions have been liquidated in a single session. These are not investors selling by choice; they are traders forced by margins.

  • The macro shock: The bankruptcy of Metropolitan Capital Bank and geopolitical tensions have pushed markets into "Risk-Off" mode. Like in 2020, investors are selling their most liquid assets (BTC) to get cash, creating an artificially low floor.

2. On-Chain Statistics: What the Whales are doing in secret

Despite the 11% drop today, the fundamentals scream resilience:

  • Silent accumulation: While ETFs are experiencing temporary outflows, whales (wallets > 1,000 BTC) have absorbed over 45,000 BTC this week.

  • Historic "Oversold" zone: The daily RSI just fell to 18. Statistically, an RSI below 20 has only been observed during the COVID crash of 2020 and in November 2023. Each time, this marked the absolute "Bottom" before a massive rally.

3. The Twitter Paradox (X): Your "Feed" is your worst enemy

This is where the opportunity hides. Twitter is the most accurate indicator of what NOT to do.

  • Noise vs Signal: Sentiment on X has fallen into "Extreme Fear". Historically, the volume of "Bearish" tweets peaks exactly when institutions start buying back massively.

  • The Inverse Indicator: When the unanimity of despair settles on your social networks, it means the market has already "priced" all the available fear. There are no sellers left, only buyers lying in wait. The Paradox is simple: If everyone on Twitter tells you it's over, then the rebound is imminent.

4. Technical Analysis: The target of $67k

We just touched the 200-week Moving Average (EMA 200) and the peaks of the 2021 cycle.

  • If the support of the $66,000 - $68,000 zone holds, the "Risk-Reward" (risk/reward ratio) is the best it has been in 18 months.

  • Bitcoin has not failed; it is shedding its speculative debt.

Conclusion: Do not be the liquidity for institutions

Bitcoin is a machine for transferring wealth from the impatient (those who follow Twitter) to the patient (those who follow On-Chain data). This "Crash Season 2" is just a repeat of history. The fundamentals are intact; only liquidity is lacking.

Like in 2020, those who have the courage to buy the "blood in the streets" will be the kings of the next rally towards $150,000.

What is your move? Are you capitulating with the Twitter crowd or accumulating with the whales? Let me know in the comments!

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