I once did what many people hope for: I sold Bitcoin near the top. It was a disciplined and rational decision. But shortly after that, I made another decision driven not by cold analysis, but by confidence built on prior success. I moved all that capital into averaging down ONDO, believing I was optimizing my portfolio and positioning ahead of the market.
Six months later, the market delivered a clear answer. Bitcoin corrected and moved sideways within a controlled range, maintaining the structure of an early-cycle asset. ONDO, on the other hand, continued to decline despite its narrative and expectations. The outcome needs no embellishment: I am currently down around 70%.
This was not because the market betrayed me, nor because Bitcoin or ONDO were inherently bad choices. The mistake was a sequence of decisions made under a familiar psychological condition - overconfidence after being right. The market does not punish you for selling the top, it tests you on the decision that follows, when you start believing you can outsmart it again.
In hindsight, the issue was not choosing an altcoin, but trading safety for higher expected returns while risk appetite was deteriorating. Bitcoin can decline, but it rarely loses its structural integrity. Altcoins do not share that privilege. The market does not care about narratives; it responds to liquidity and risk preference.
The market does not need forgiveness, because it never made promises. Charts have no emotions and bear no responsibility for anyone’s decisions. The only one who needs forgiveness in this story is myself - for confusing a correct decision in the past with the ability to always be right in the future.
Forgiving yourself is not about forgetting losses. It is about not trading in revenge mode, not trying to prove yourself right against the market, and not carrying the ego of the previous cycle into the next one. Anyone who stays long enough in the market will sell correctly and buy incorrectly, win big and lose deeply, be right on direction but wrong on allocation. The difference is not how often you were right, but what you learned after being wrong.
The market will offer new opportunities, but only those who know how to forgive themselves will remain clear-headed enough to recognize them ==> and survive long enough to take part.
#Fualnguyen #LongTermInvestment
