# The CPI data for the United States tonight is positive $BTC
is positive, overall dovish.
1. Data Overview (2026-02-13 21:30)
- CPI Year-on-Year: 2.4% (Expected 2.5%, Previous 2.7%) → Below expectations
- CPI Month-on-Month: 0.2% (Expected 0.3%, Previous 0.3%) → Below expectations
- Core CPI Year-on-Year: 2.5% (Expected 2.5%, Previous 2.6%) → In line with expectations
- Core CPI Month-on-Month: 0.3% (Expected 0.3%, Previous 0.2%) → In line with expectations
2. Why is it positive
- Inflation continues to cool, with overall CPI Year-on-Year falling to 2.4%, more moderate than expected.
- Market interest rate cut expectations are heating up: the probability of a rate cut in June rises from 63% to 69%, and the probability of three rate cuts for the whole year rises to 50%.
- Positive outlook for U.S. stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies: the U.S. dollar weakens, benefiting risk assets and non-interest-bearing assets.
3. Minor Flaws
- Core CPI Month-on-Month at 0.3% (a rebound from the previous value of 0.2%), shows that services/rent still have stickiness, but did not exceed expectations.
4. Conclusion in one sentence
Tonight's CPI is overall positive, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's expectations for rate cuts in the first half of the year, friendly to risk assets.