The narrative of the fragmentation is that Bitcoin "consolidates" at $70,000. On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin is being distributed. We just hit an "invisible sell wall" driven by three massive structural failures. This is not a buying dip; it’s a rational alleviation triggered by a supply shock of $6.3 billion that the market cannot absorb.
1. Reality on-chain (supply shock) ⛏️
• Miner capitulation: Miners moved 90,000 Bitcoin ($6.3 billion) to exchanges in the last 72 hours.
• Historical volume: This is the largest miner sell-off since 2024, indicating they are selling to survive amid tightening margins.
• Impact: Immediate demand cannot absorb $6.3 billion of selling pressure without a significant repricing event. The "wall" is real.
2. Macroeconomics and structure 📉
Bearish trigger:
• Rising yield: US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 4.17%. When risk-free rates rise, capital flees from crypto.
• Capital flight: While Bitcoin dropped by 3%, high-beta altcoins (BNB, ZEC, SUI) fell by more than 6%, indicating a "risk-off" environment where liquidity is leaving for the US dollar, not altcoins.
• Broken support: We lost the 200-week EMA at ~68,000, a major bull/bear line.
Conflict:
Retail is waiting for "altcoin season" while institutions execute "flight to safety." The gap between the miners' sell wall and retail hopes creates a trap at $66,000.
3. Trade setup 🎯
🔴 Scenario A: Rational easing
• Trigger: rejection at $67,500 - $68,000 (retest of broken 200-week EMA support)
• Entry: $67,500 area (selling at the miners' wall)
• Target 1: $62,000 (October support block)
• Target 2: $59,800 ("weak low" liquidity pull)
• Stop: 4-hour close above $70,500 (invalidates miner capitulation theory)
🟢 Scenario B: Recovery (low probability)
• Trigger: daily close above $70,000
• Context: Requires miners to stop selling and for Coinbase price to turn positive
• Target: $74,000 range
My wisdom
The "miners' wall" is too heavy. The market needs to clear the leverage at $59,800 before a bull move can resume. I will weaken short positions on any bounce near $67.6k. Confidence: 75% bearish