Markets rarely reward certainty. They reward structure.
On February 03, a year ago, the first Elliott Wave forecast for RUNE was published. It was not a forecast of precise prices or exact dates. It was a structural map. Today, exactly a year later, the chart still respects that broader framework, reinforcing a critical fact about markets: while price cannot be predicted with absolute precision, it can often be anticipated through structure.
The weekly chart for RUNE reflects the completion of a five-wave macro impulse, followed by an intricate corrective formation labeled W X Y. According to Elliott Wave principles, once the impulse concludes, the correction is not optional. It is structural. The decline that followed the peak was not random fluctuation, but the unfolding of that corrective phase.
The recent breakout from the distinctive candle on February 3rd indicates the continuation of the next phase within this broader correction. Price action in the short term is developing in a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, suggesting that bearish pressure remains active. Fibonacci corrective analysis aligns with this view. The correction level of 0.618 represents an intermediate target where temporary stabilization may occur. However, the deeper corrective range of 0.786 represents the most fitting target to complete the mature wave Y, providing structural symmetry within the broader cycle.
It is essential to emphasize that Elliott Wave analysis does not offer certainty. Instead, it provides probabilistic pathways. It organizes uncertainty into recognizable phases of expansion and contraction, optimism and pessimism. A year after the initial forecast, the broader corrective thesis remains structurally intact, showing how wave analysis provides a roadmap that extends from short-term fluctuations to long-term cycle expectations.
Markets cannot be predicted with precision. But they can be mapped with discipline. The Elliott Wave theory does not negate risks. Rather, it defines them.