Before guessing the future, let’s acknowledge what already happened.
BTC topped around $126K and fell to $60K
→ That’s a 52% drawdown
ETH topped near $4,950 and fell to $1,750
→ That’s a 65% drawdown
So ETH didn’t just follow $BTC .
It overreacted by ~1.25x, mainly due to leverage, thinner liquidity, and panic unwinds.
That first wave of damage?
It’s already done.
Now the real question isn’t:
“Can ETH go lower?”
It’s:
From where — and under what conditions?
Let’s Assume This Scenario:
BTC breaks $60K and grinds down to $48K.
That’s roughly another 20% downside.
ETH’s reaction depends entirely on its starting level when that happens.
Scenario 1: ETH Bounces to $2,300–$2,400 Before BTC Drops
This is the most realistic setup.
Using the same ETH/BTC volatility ratio (1.2x–1.3x):
20% BTC drop
→ 24–26% ETH drop
That gives us:
ETH $2,400 → ~$1,800
ETH $2,300 → ~$1,700
This isn’t panic.
This is controlled fear.
Market structure weakens.
Leverage resets.
But it’s orderly.
Scenario 2: ETH Is Already Weak Near $1,900–$2,000
Now things change.
There’s less buffer.
Liquidations trigger faster.
In this case:
$ETH likely trades $1,500–$1,400
Quick wicks lower are possible
Not because ETH is “broken” —
but because leverage gets flushed again.
This is mechanics, not emotion.
Scenario 3: Full Market Panic (Low Probability, High Damage)
This requires:
BTC losing $48K fast
A macro shock or liquidity event
Correlation spike across risk assets
Only then do we start talking about:
$1,100–$1,200 wicks
Short-lived, emotional moves
Maximum pain in minimum time
These don’t last long — but they hurt.
The Important Thing Most People Miss
ETH already did its first panic leg at $1,750.
Second legs are usually:
Slower
Less violent
More selective
That’s why survival matters more than prediction.
My Honest Takeaway
ETH below $1,500 is possible only if BTC is still trending down.
ETH below $1,300 requires real panic — not Twitter fear.
Overleveraged traders won’t survive this range.
Spot holders with patience usually do.
Markets don’t reward confidence.
They reward risk management.
If BTC actually goes to $48K…
Where do you think ETH finds real buyers?
$1,400?
$1,200?
Lower?
I’m reading all serious answers 👇
#btc #ETH #bnb #BinanceSquareTalks
