📊 ETHUSDT 15 Minute K-Line Analysis and Trading Strategy
I. Current Market Signal Interpretation
1. Price and Trend
◦ Latest Price: 1,981.88 USDT, 24-hour Increase +2.79%, short-term bullish strength.
◦ Bollinger Bands (BOLL): Price touches the upper band (UB: 1,983.29), the middle band (1,970.47) trending upwards, indicating a short-term upward channel, but there is significant pressure near the upper band.
◦ Support/Resistance: Support level 1,980.64, resistance level 1,983.94, price is slightly oscillating below the resistance level.
2. Technical Indicators
◦ RSI(6): 73.68, has entered the overbought zone (>70), short-term pullback risk has significantly increased.
◦ RSI(12): 62.73, RSI(24): 57.07, medium-term bullish momentum remains, but short-term momentum shows signs of exhaustion.
◦ Trading Volume: Recent increase in volume, the last K-line's trading volume has shrunk, indicating weakening buying strength.
II. Core Trading Strategy
1. Short Position (Conservative)
• Entry Conditions:
◦ Price fails to effectively break through the resistance level 1,983.94, and RSI(6) falls back from above 73.
◦ Or price breaks below the support level 1,980.64, accompanied by an increase in trading volume.
• Target Levels:
◦ First Target: 1,970.47 (Bollinger middle band)
◦ Second Target: 1,960.00 (recent oscillation low)
• Stop Loss Level: 1,985.00 (above the resistance level, to prevent false breakouts)
2. Long Position After Pullback (Trend-Following)
• Entry Conditions:
◦ Price pulls back to near the Bollinger middle band 1,970.47, showing obvious stabilization signals (such as long lower shadows, bullish engulfing K-lines).
◦ RSI(6) falls below 60, and RSI(12) remains above 50, confirming that the bullish trend has not changed.
• Target Levels:
◦ First Target: 1,983.94 (previous high resistance level)
◦ Second Target: 2,000.00 (round number)
• Stop Loss Level: 1,956.34 (recent low point, breaking below indicates trend reversal)
3. Risk Control
• Position Management: Single position not exceeding 5%-10% of total capital.
• Strict Stop Loss: Each trade must preset a stop loss level to avoid expanding losses.
• Avoid FOMO: Do not blindly go long in the RSI overbought zone, wait for a pullback or trend confirmation.
