If you zoom out and study previous cycles, a clear structure emerges. Each major bear phase has historically lasted roughly a year, often delivering deep drawdowns — early cycles saw declines approaching 80%.
As #Bitcoin $BTC has grown in market cap and maturity, volatility has gradually compressed. The upside is no longer exponential like the early years, and the downside, while still painful, has become relatively less extreme in percentage terms.
But “less extreme” does not mean safe.
A 50–60% correction remains completely normal within Bitcoin’s macro rhythm. If price revisits the $50,000 region, that would represent roughly a 60% drawdown from the cycle high — severe, but historically consistent.
In that type of scenario, the focus shouldn’t be on perfectly catching the bottom. It should be on positioning intelligently. Scaling in gradually across high-probability zones tends to outperform emotional all-in attempts at calling the exact turning point.
Right now, both time and magnitude suggest the correction may not be fully mature. Major cycle bottoms typically require not just price damage, but duration — months of exhaustion, disbelief, and structural reset.
Markets rarely bottom in a single violent move. They bottom when participants grow tired.
Could the bottom form this year? Absolutely.
But the more important question isn’t the exact price level — it’s preparation. When the opportunity finally becomes obvious in hindsight, will you still have capital? Will you still have clarity? Will you still have discipline?
Cycles don’t reward prediction.
They reward patience.
