🚨 2026 Interest rate cut plan postponed? Citigroup says: wait until April to discuss💥
A significant market signal just emerged: Citigroup has pushed its Federal Reserve interest rate cut forecast from March to April — this is not a small adjustment, but rather a real-time judgment based on January's employment data being much stronger than expected. Strong employment means that interest rates are likely to remain high in the short term, and the window for rate cuts has clearly been pushed back.
What does this core mean?
January non-farm payrolls added about 130,000 jobs, far exceeding the expected ~66,000, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.3%.
Citigroup analysts believe that strong employment indicates a more robust labor market than previously thought, reducing the rationale for mid-term interest rate cuts.
This also significantly diminishes the probability of a rate cut in March, and we will have to wait until April data is clearer before making further comments.
What does this mean for the cryptocurrency market?
Delayed rate cut expectations = Lack of liquidity support for risk assets in the short term
BTC/ETH, without support from rate cut expectations, can only rely on macro sentiment to find direction;
The higher the uncertainty in funding, the more volatile the market will be.
Why is employment data so important?
Because the Federal Reserve has always emphasized waiting for "sufficient data support" before taking action.
When data strengthens:
The probability of not cutting rates increases
Easing expectations are suppressed
Risk appetite is weakened
This is not simply a matter of "will the coin rise or fall," but rather the macro rhythm determining the liquidity space of risk assets.
A saying from veteran players
Rate cuts are not achieved by shouting,
They are substantiated by data.
Strong employment data means that funds will have to wait longer.
The market's struggle this week is not without reason,
Funds are waiting for a more genuine turning signal.
March has not yet arrived, and before April, there will be a slew of data continuously coming in to enrich policy discussions; only then may the market truly start to explode in a certain direction.
Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations have been postponed = short-term liquidity will be slower, and the rhythm of risk assets will also slow down a bit.
