【Non-Farm Depth】Does bad news turn into good news? Don’t just focus on interest rate cuts; this is the underlying logic behind the Bitcoin rally!🤔
After the recent non-farm data was released, the market fell and then rose, leaving many people confused.
"Why didn't it fall even though the data exceeded expectations (bad news for interest rate cuts)?"
In fact, if you only focus on the two words 'interest rate cut', your perspective is too narrow.
Based on the latest published data, let’s take a different angle and see what **'smart money'** is trading.
1. Economic 'soft landing' is more important than 'interest rate cuts' 🛡️
Take a look at the core data:
Unemployment rate: decreased from 4.4% to 4.3%.
Employment numbers: 130,000, significantly exceeding previous values and expectations.
Interpretation:
What does this indicate? It indicates that the U.S. economy is improving and is very resilient!
For the current risk market (U.S. stocks, cryptocurrency), the weight of 'economic stability without a crash' is actually higher than 'interest rate cuts'.
As long as the economy does not go into recession, corporate profits will be stable, and asset prices will have support.
2. Wage increases = Consumer engine not stalled ⛽
Wage data: Average hourly wage annual rate (3.7%) and monthly rate (0.4%) are both rising.
Interpretation:
This is the strongest signal of economic resilience. Workers have money in their pockets, indicating consumption capacity.
Although this might make inflation a bit stubborn, compared to deflation and recession, this is definitely good news.
This data gives a shot of confidence to the U.S. economy, eliminating market fears of a 'hard landing'.
3. The logic of interest rate cuts has changed: Look at Trump, not the data 👑
Many brothers are still trading cryptocurrencies according to textbooks, thinking that good data must lead to a drop.
But don’t forget whose era it is now — Trump’s.
Interpretation:
The significance of the data in recent months is actually diminishing marginally.
The future pace of interest rate cuts has shifted the market's focus from 'cold data' to 'people'.
Interest rate cuts are Trump’s job, and also the task of the Federal Reserve chair he appointed. As long as there is political will, the overall direction of monetary easing will not change.
📝 Summary
Today’s market tells us:
Bad news not falling is good news.
The market is digesting the dividends brought by 'strong economy' instead of getting tangled up in the bad news of 'cutting rates once less'.
Brothers, look beyond the data to see the essence; don’t get carried away by emotions.
