February 11, 2026, US Non-Farm Payroll Data Preview: Market Focuses on Employment and Inflation Signals!
Tonight at 21:30, the United States will announce key employment data for January, including the unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, year-on-year and month-on-month average hourly earnings. This is an important window for assessing the resilience of the US economy and the Federal Reserve's policy path.
Core Data Expectations
- Unemployment Rate: Previous value 4.40%, expected 4.40%, the market expects the job market to maintain moderate resilience without significant deterioration.
- Non-Farm Payrolls: Previous value 50,000, expected 70,000, employment growth may slightly recover but remains at recent lows, reflecting a gradual cooling of the labor market.
- Year-on-Year Average Hourly Earnings: Previous value 3.80%, expected 3.6%, salary growth is expected to slow, which may ease inflationary pressures.
- Month-on-Month Average Hourly Earnings: Previous value 0.30%, expected 0.30%, short-term wage growth remains stable.
Market Impact Logic
1. If non-farm employment exceeds expectations (>70,000) and the unemployment rate is below expectations: This will reinforce expectations of a “soft landing” for the US economy, and the market's bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in March may cool, the US dollar index may strengthen, while gold and US stocks may face short-term pressure.
2. If non-farm employment falls short of expectations (<50,000) and wage growth exceeds expectations: This will raise concerns about “stagflation,” increasing the urgency for the market regarding the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, gold and US bonds may be sought after, and US stock volatility may increase.
3. If the overall data meets expectations: The market will maintain pricing for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, and risk assets may continue to fluctuate.
Operational Suggestions
- Gold: Before the data release, light positions can be taken to observe; if non-farm data exceeds expectations, watch for support at $2000; if it falls short of expectations, watch for pressure at $2050.
- US Dollar Index: Data exceeding expectations may push the dollar to test the 105 mark, while disappointing data may lead to a drop below 103.
- US Stocks: Focus on the performance of technology and financial stocks, wage growth exceeding expectations may suppress growth stock valuations.
Tonight's non-farm data will directly impact market expectations for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and investors should closely monitor the data details, especially the marginal changes in employment structure and wage growth, to seize trading opportunities amid market fluctuations.