#USRetailSalesMissForecast
US retail sales for December 2025 showed no change (0.0% month-over-month), falling short of the predicted 0.4% increase. This marks a weak end to the holiday season and suggests consumer spending is slowing.
More importantly, the "control group," which is often used to measure consumer demand relevant to GDP, dropped by about 0.1%. This indicates that underlying momentum is weakening, not simply shifting from one sector to another.
Markets reacted immediately. Weaker spending data typically leads to lower Treasury yields, increases expectations for a more accommodating Federal Reserve policy, and causes the US dollar to fluctuate. Stocks, meanwhile, can move between optimism about interest rate cuts and concerns about economic slowdown.
In summary, this is not a market collapse yet, but it serves as a warning that the consumer's economic drive may be losing steam as early 2026 begins.