🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸Latest news from the Federal Reserve❗️❗️❗️
🔥🔥🔥On February 10th local time, Federal Reserve heavyweight official Logan hinted that in the coming months, as long as inflation can obediently decline and the job market does not experience significant fluctuations, the Federal Reserve plans to 'stay put' and not continue to cut interest rates.
Logan is a core decision-maker with voting rights at the Federal Reserve, and her speech directly represents the policy direction of the Federal Reserve. This statement is not a personal opinion but a clear signal regarding monetary policy for the coming months, impacting global markets
The current target range for the federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75%, with an effective rate of 3.64%. This level was determined after previous adjustments, and the Federal Reserve officially believes that the current rate is close to the neutral range.
Logan explicitly emphasized in her speech that U.S. inflation is still above the long-term policy target of 2%. She is more worried about a rebound in inflation, which is the core reason for the Federal Reserve's insistence on pausing interest rate cuts and maintaining a wait-and-see approach.
She holds a cautiously optimistic view of the current policy, believing that the existing rate level helps to gradually reduce inflation while also stabilizing the job market, thus there is no need to rush to adjust interest rates.
Market expectations for a rate cut in March have significantly cooled. CME interest rate futures data show that the probability of maintaining the rate in March exceeds 80%, and expectations for a rate cut have been significantly pushed back.
This clear signal means that the high interest rate environment will last longer, supporting the dollar index, while global capital flows, exchange rate fluctuations, and asset prices will also make adaptive adjustments.
For ordinary people, mortgage loans, consumer loans, and corporate financing costs are difficult to decline significantly in the short term, and deposit yields will remain relatively stable, with economic life continuing at the current pace.
Logan's statement also clarifies the policy logic: the Federal Reserve looks only at data and does not speculate on trends. Whether there will be an adjustment in the future completely depends on the actual performance of the two core indicators of inflation and employment.
This is not a temporary compromise but the most pragmatic choice for the Federal Reserve at present, seeking a balance between controlling inflation and stabilizing growth, avoiding new risks from a rapid policy shift.
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