$AVAX shows a continuous decline on the 4-hour chart, with the price having fallen below EMA20 (9.013) and testing recent low support.
🎯 Direction: No Position
Market Analysis: The price has retraced from the high of 9.18, and the buying ratio in the 4-hour candlestick remains below 0.5, indicating that active selling pressure is dominant. Although the funding rate is negative (-0.0259%), the open interest (OI) trend is stable, with no increase in OI that would indicate a short squeeze. The current decline seems more like long liquidation or distribution by major players.
Core Logic: The key contradiction lies in the deep imbalance (5.59%) and the divergence in price action. The order book shows that the thickness of buy orders (Bids) is significantly better than that of sell orders (Asks), indicating signs of institutional support and accumulation, but the price has failed to rebound, suggesting that the buying below may be passive absorption rather than active offense.
Technical Resonance: RSI (39.22) has not entered the oversold zone, leaving room for further decline. The price is below all EMAs (9.013/9.425), with a bearish structure. The current price level around 8.76 lacks clear PA signal support, with the previous low of 8.305 being a key liquidity area.
Trading Plan: Wait for two signals: 1. A clear 4-hour pin bar or bullish engulfing pattern appears in the deep buy zone (e.g., 8.70-8.75), accompanied by an increase in buying ratio above 0.55, then consider accumulating long positions on the left side. 2. If the price breaks down below the previous low of 8.30 with increased volume, then the downside opens up, and it may be prudent to short in the direction of the trend. Currently lacking a high win-rate structure, no position and waiting.
Trade here 👇$AVAX
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