Non-farm payrolls will make a heavy debut tomorrow! The White House preemptively 'cools down': no need to panic about slowing employment
On February 11th at 21:30 Beijing time, the January non-farm employment report, delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown, is about to be released! This core data that influences the Federal Reserve's policy has already been preemptively 'prepared' by the White House before its announcement, and the global financial market is holding its breath, with the crypto market also expecting a key volatility window.
The Director of the White House National Economic Council, Hassett, publicly stated that due to the slowdown in labor force growth and the increase in productivity, U.S. employment growth is likely to decline. This is a special pattern where a contraction in labor supply coexists with high-efficient economic growth, and it is not a signal of economic recession, so the market need not panic. This rhetoric is consistent with comments made earlier by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, highlighting the uniqueness of the current employment market's 'dual decline' in supply and demand, which greatly increases the difficulty of data interpretation.
The causes of the employment slowdown directly determine the Federal Reserve's actions: if it stems from a tightening of immigration policies leading to a shortage of labor supply, it may push wages and inflation up, making interest rate cuts more cautious; if it comes from weak demand, it provides a basis for interest rate cuts. Currently, the market expects 70,000 new jobs in the January non-farm data and a stable unemployment rate of 4.4%; according to CME FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut in March is only 17.7%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is as high as 82.3%.
Non-farm data will directly influence the movements of the dollar, U.S. stocks, and the crypto market. The White House's advance notice, is it paving the way for data that may fall short of expectations? Do you think this non-farm report will be bullish or bearish for the crypto market?
