Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached (almost) its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) last week fastest than any other Bear Cycle before. At the same time, its 1W LMACD hit the same symmetrical level (blue) it did every time BTC completed the 1st Stage of the Cycle. Especially in the case of the (previous) 2022 Bear Cycle, it was around the same time the price came close to the 1W MA200 as well.
As this chart shows, the 4-year Cycle bottom occurs around when the 1W LMACD makes a Bullish Cross after its hits -0.21. We are still far from that. But what past Bear Cycles show is that when the 1W LMACD has hit the current level, Bitcoin takes at best the same amount of time to bottom as it did from the start of the Bear Cycle to the moment the LMACD hit the current level (blue Support). That was particularly the case during the previous (2022) Bear Cycle (was 27 weeks from High to LMACD contact, and another 27 weeks until the Cycle bottomed). The two Bear Cycles before it, bottomed in less time.
As a result, given that last week completed 17 weeks from the Cycle Top up until the LMACD contact, the Cycle could bottom in the next 17 weeks (based on that model). This suggests the first week of June 2026, while the 4-year Cycle suggests mid-September. So what do you think is more likely to happen? Could that be BTC's shortest Bear Cycle ever?
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