btcusd

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to be under heavy pressure despite having the 1W MA200 holding the crash last week. Having long lost its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which confirmed the Bear Cycle, we are now approaching its 2nd Phase, which is the bottoming process.
This doesn't mean that the bottom is here but more like that the market is entering a Phase where it will gradually attempt to lead us to the bottom of the 4-year Cycle, which based on it should be around September - October 2026.
Having a look at the past three Bear Cycles and drawing their Phase 2 fractals after the 0.5 Fibonacci level, that led to their bottom, we can see that the structure is quite familiar. Not identical, but similar. All principles are the same and there is a high correlation with the 2022 Bear Cycle in particular.
Even though we haven't yet technically reached the middle (0.5 Fib) of this Bear Cycle, according to that fractal, BTC should start making a series of Lower Lows gradually, that can potentially lead to as low as $40000. That could be the Bear Cycle bottom.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is again on the downturn after almost reaching its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) just last week. One would thought that long-term buyers would make their presence clear on this historically supportive level but so far their absence is more than emphatic. If this continues, the market eyes the next critical Support level, the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), which is where the previous 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed.
In fact, we identify a quite similar pattern on BTC's last three major correction events (2022 Bear Cycle and late 2019 - early 2020 on COVID flash crash). As you can see a Double Top rejection followed by a Higher Lows trend-line bearish break-out has been the common pattern on all (including the current correction). The previous two both broke below the 1W MA200 and their respective 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels, with the 2022 fractal bottoming just above the 1.786 Fib ext while the 2020 below it. In both cases, the 1W MA350 held.
As a result, if buyers continue to be absent and BTC is getting heavily sold after every short-term rally, we can expect the market to target $50000, which isn't just the next psychological level but also just above the current 1.786 Fib and will still be above the 1W MA350 (based on its current trajectory).
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Bitcoin is entering a critical phase as futures open interest trends lower, signaling reduced leveraged participation across the derivatives market. After a period of aggressive positioning and elevated volatility, the latest data suggests that speculative momentum is cooling.
📊 Market Overview
A decline in open interest typically reflects position closures rather than fresh capital entering the market. In the current environment:
Futures Open Interest is contracting – leveraged traders are reducing exposure.
Price action is consolidating near resistance – upside continuation lacks strong follow-through.
Volume profile is softening – momentum buying appears limited.
Funding rates are stabilizing – excessive bullish leverage is being unwound.
This combination often precedes either a deeper corrective move or a healthy consolidation before the next directional expansion.
🔍 Technical Perspective
BTC/USD remains structurally strong on higher timeframes, but short-term momentum indicators suggest hesitation.
Key levels to monitor:
Immediate support: Previous demand zone near recent breakout level
Major resistance: Local swing high and liquidity cluster
RSI momentum: Watching for bullish or bearish divergence
Volume confirmation: Breakouts require expanding participation
If open interest begins rising alongside price strength, it may signal renewed institutional positioning. Conversely, continued OI decline with weakening price action could open the door for a broader pullback.
🧠 Derivatives Insight
Open interest is a leading sentiment indicator. When it declines during price consolidation:
Market leverage resets
Liquidation risk decreases
Volatility compression may build toward a breakout
Professional traders typically wait for confirmation: rising OI + strong spot demand = sustainable trend continuation.
📌 Strategic Outlook
Current structure suggests patience. Bitcoin is not showing aggressive distribution, but momentum is clearly slowing. The next directional move will likely depend on:
Spot market accumulation
Macro catalysts
Derivatives positioning shift
Risk management remains essential in this transitional phase.
💬 Community Discussion
Do you expect Bitcoin to extend its consolidation before the next breakout, or is a deeper retracement more probable at this stage?

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached (almost) its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) last week fastest than any other Bear Cycle before. At the same time, its 1W LMACD hit the same symmetrical level (blue) it did every time BTC completed the 1st Stage of the Cycle. Especially in the case of the (previous) 2022 Bear Cycle, it was around the same time the price came close to the 1W MA200 as well.
As this chart shows, the 4-year Cycle bottom occurs around when the 1W LMACD makes a Bullish Cross after its hits -0.21. We are still far from that. But what past Bear Cycles show is that when the 1W LMACD has hit the current level, Bitcoin takes at best the same amount of time to bottom as it did from the start of the Bear Cycle to the moment the LMACD hit the current level (blue Support). That was particularly the case during the previous (2022) Bear Cycle (was 27 weeks from High to LMACD contact, and another 27 weeks until the Cycle bottomed). The two Bear Cycles before it, bottomed in less time.
As a result, given that last week completed 17 weeks from the Cycle Top up until the LMACD contact, the Cycle could bottom in the next 17 weeks (based on that model). This suggests the first week of June 2026, while the 4-year Cycle suggests mid-September. So what do you think is more likely to happen? Could that be BTC's shortest Bear Cycle ever?
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