Recently, I've seen a lot of real-world evidence about how to improve trading stability, and I just want to shout one thing: take off your leverage!
Many people think that reducing leverage from 30x to 10x is 'stable'? Don't joke. It's like practicing parkour on the 30th floor versus the 10th floor; the result of falling is the same.
📊 Let's look at a set of brutal data backtests (from 2022 to present):
We tested four strategies with exactly the same entry and exit rules, with the only difference being the leverage ratio:
🔴 10x leverage (Xiao Hong): Went bankrupt in the first year due to a drop, permanently out.
🟡 5x leverage (Little Yellow): Drawdown up to -98.9%, basically zero; it has been all in vain these years.
🟢 3x leverage (Little Green): Did it look like it outperformed? But it experienced a 90% drawdown in the middle! This is a stroke of luck; in reality, no one can execute a strategy like a machine after losing 90% of their principal.
🔵 0 leverage (Little Blue): Steadily moving forward.
Why is 3x leverage also gambling?
The annual volatility of BTC is extremely high, with daily fluctuations exceeding 15% being common. A single 33% drop with 3x leverage will liquidate you. Do you think you can avoid 312 and 519?
The truth is:
The role of leverage has never been to increase your long-term profits; it merely amplifies your account's volatility, accelerating your journey towards zero (the absorption barrier of a Markov chain).
Many times, your strategy itself is profitable; it is your brain's correct fit to the market. But because you are addicted to the thrill of dozens of times, you turn 'Little Blue' into a liquidated 'Little Red' with your own hands.
💡 Advice for seasoned investors:
If you really see the right direction and want to use leverage, please go learn about options. Just like the put options I currently hold, with leverage up to 26 times, but because there is no liquidation risk, I don't even have to worry about price spikes while I sleep.
Remember: gamblers must lose, leverage must fail. You can slowly become rich; don't choose to go bankrupt quickly.
#BTC #交易心理 #风险管理 #期权 #长线投资
