$BTC 2026 Year BTC Overall Judgment: Initially suppressed then stabilized, oscillation repair; the first half continues to pull back in search of a bottom, while the second half may gradually stabilize and rise along with liquidity and regulatory progress.
1. Core Drivers and Current Situation
• Halving Cycle: The fourth halving in May 2024, with the period from 2025 to 2026 being the mid-term of the post-halving rising cycle, reaching a historical high of $126,000 in October 2025, and dropping to a minimum of $59,900 in early February 2026, with a maximum retracement exceeding 52%.
• Macroeconomics and Liquidity: The Federal Reserve's policy is key. The nomination of a hawkish candidate in January 2026 triggered a sharp decline, and the high interest rate environment suppresses risk assets, amplifying volatility through the clearing of leverage.
• Institutions and Compliance: In early 2026, net inflows into US spot ETFs reached $1.2 billion, but there was a cumulative outflow of over $12 billion from November 2025 to January 2026, indicating a clear tug-of-war. The implementation of EU MiCA and Japanese regulations may bring incremental funds.
• Technology and Sentiment: Key support at $60,000; if it breaks, it may test $55,000 to $58,000; the fear and greed index is in the extreme fear range, and deleveraging continues.
2. Price Fluctuation Rhythm and Key Levels
• First Half (January to June): Oscillation to find a bottom, core range between $55,000 to $65,000; $60,000 is the lifeline, and if it is lost, further downside may occur; the Federal Reserve's March FOMC meeting, ETF fund flows, and the status of mining machine shutdowns are key triggers.
• Second Half (July to December): If liquidity improves, regulations are implemented, and institutions return, it may stabilize and rise to $70,000 to $90,000; resistance levels at $65,000 to $68,000, $75,000, and $85,000.
3. Bullish and Bearish Factors
• Bullish: Supply contraction post-halving, long-term allocation demand for ETFs, expansion of compliance, reinvestment by institutions, and healthy on-chain fundamentals.
• Bearish: Liquidity tightening, regulatory uncertainty, unliquidated leverage risks, low sentiment, and deterioration of the macro economy.
4. Operational Suggestions
• Primarily observe in the short term; phased layout requires waiting for $60,000 to stabilize, for ETF fund inflows, and for signals indicating completion of deleveraging.
• For the medium to long term, accumulate at low prices, control positions, and pay attention to turning points in regulation and liquidity.
Do you need me to provide a three-tier risk preference 2026 BTC dollar-cost averaging/phased investment plan based on the above analysis (each tier includes entry range, additional buying conditions, stop-loss levels, and target levels)?
