The Possible Consequences of the U.S.-Iran Standoff: #美国伊朗对峙 #全球科技股抛售冲击风险资产

1. Oil prices will soar directly,

Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz—almost 1/3 of the world's maritime oil passes through here. If it blocks the strait or halts oil exports, oil prices will skyrocket immediately. A single-day increase of 10% would be no surprise; our costs for driving, gasoline, logistics, and purchasing groceries, online shopping, and deliveries will all rise, leading to inflation.

Even more severely: if oil prices spike to $100-150 per barrel, countries in Europe and Asia that rely on imported oil will face direct energy shortages, factories will reduce production, prices will soar, and the global economy will be dragged down.

2. The Middle East will descend into chaos, and the flames of war may spread

1. Proxy battles: Iranian-backed Houthi forces, Hezbollah, and Iraqi militias will aggressively attack U.S., Israeli, and Saudi allies. Attacks on Red Sea merchant ships, crossfire at the Lebanon-Israel border, and bombings of U.S. military bases in the Middle East will become routine.

2. Israel will inevitably be drawn in: Iran has long warned that if the U.S. takes action, it will strike Tel Aviv in Israel. Israel's territory is small and cannot withstand a saturation attack, leading to complete chaos in the Middle East.

3. The refugee tide will overwhelm neighboring countries: Turkey, Iraq, and Lebanon are already chaotic, and the arrival of a million Iranian refugees will collapse social order, security, and the economy, leading to a severe humanitarian crisis.

3. If the U.S. goes to war, it will likely face great difficulties

Relevant agencies have calculated that before a full-scale war with Iran, $2.8 billion will be needed within 30 days, and prolonged conflict would be an endless pit that the U.S. Treasury cannot sustain.

The risk of U.S. military casualties: Thousands of Iranian missiles and drone swarms could conduct saturation attacks on U.S. military bases in the Middle East, resulting in thousands of U.S. military casualties. Anti-war sentiments at home would explode, leading politicians to lose votes.

Allies' thoughts: Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other Gulf countries have openly stated they do not allow their territory to be used to strike Iran, not wanting to be dragged into the conflict, causing the U.S.-Middle East alliance to weaken.

In the end, there is only one possibility: negotiating while fighting, engaging in a long-term stalemate. The U.S. fears getting bogged down in war, while Iran fears a complete economic collapse. The most likely scenario is a normalization of gray confrontation: mutual drone strikes, maritime standoffs, cyberattacks, and mutual sanctions, with occasional talks, and if they can’t reach an agreement, they will escalate again!