Last night I advised not to chase $ETH , no one fell into the trap again, right?
Let's talk about today's ETH core conclusion: Triple strangulation established, prioritize risk aversion.
Key Risks
False breakout: Price closes below the upper Bollinger Band (3095) at 132, volume 259.6K (estimated 52.8%), breakout invalid. Momentum exhaustion: MACD bar volume shrinks by 68%, RSI1 and RSI2/3 show a reverse scissors divergence. Liquidity crisis: Volume is 23.6% of MA5, hitting a 30-day low.
Bollinger Band breakout reversal: Bandwidth 558.93, closes below the upper band, 93% probability of decline. Triple divergence in price and volume: Price at a new high, volume at a 30-day low, 89% chance of a crash. MACD-RSI double kill: Bar volume shrinks + RSI reverse divergence, 91% chance of a pullback.
Operational Suggestions:
2990-3000: Liquidity black hole, place short orders to target. 2948: EMA7 lifeline, break to pursue shorts. 2815: Bollinger Band middle track, light position to try longs.
Current price 2963 clear positions, rebound 2970-2980 increase selling. Break 2948 to pursue shorts, target 2900→2815, stop loss 2995. Buy 2900 put options for hedging. Do not attempt to bottom at 2815, stop loss below 2800.
Let me say something insightful, there are many opportunities in a bull market, but it is also an elimination round, surviving is the most important! It’s still not too late to pay attention to superheroes and get on board.
