$ETH "Golden Cross" reappears, is it a 65% surge reenactment or a bear market trap?

I believe that the recent bullish technical signals from Ethereum are worth paying attention to. Among them, the 50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average forms a "Golden Cross". Although this led to a 65% surge in ETH in January 2023, a similar signal in March 2022 only resulted in a 23% increase before entering a bear market, so we cannot be blindly optimistic based solely on this signal.

In terms of trend following, if ETH effectively breaks through $3,650, a trailing stop loss can be set using 1.5 times the ATR (currently $180) to lock in profits. For hedging strategies, buying call options expiring at the end of August with a strike price of $4,000 while simultaneously selling put options at $3,500 can control the hedging cost within a net premium of 3.5%, which can lower risk.

The current market is at a critical decision point, and it is recommended to keep ETH positions below 15% of the investment portfolio unless it breaks through $4,000. At the same time, closely monitor the SEC's internal memo this Friday and the changes in CME ETH futures positions next week, as they are important indicators for determining whether the market trend can be sustained.

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