The big one is coming! #ETH overbought trap has been set, are you still blindly chasing the rise?
ETH has broken through the surface, with overbought risks soaring, and a sharp contradiction between bulls and bears.
The price has broken through the upper Bollinger Band to 2785.61, an increase of 3.3%, but the trading volume is only 39% of the 5-day average, raising doubts about the breakout. The volume is 496.3K, far below the previous high point of 23.6%, and liquidity is concerning.
The MACD histogram has reached an 18-month peak, diverging from price acceleration, and the turning of the DIF will trigger selling pressure. The moving average deviation rate has exceeded the threshold, and the RSI1 is as high as 91.31, indicating overbought levels similar to the peak in January 2024.
The Bollinger Bands are extremely stretched, with a 93% probability of a retracement within 6 hours, averaging to 2695. If the volume continues to be <600K, the breakout is likely false. In 9 hours, the U.S. CPI data for June will be a variable; if >3.3%, it may retrace to 2602, while <3.0% may spike to 2830 but with heavy selling pressure.
ETH presents a “three highs and three lows” structure, with the three highs being RSI, moving average deviation rate, and MACD histogram value high; the three lows are volume, liquidity, and market vigilance low.
Trading advice: The current price of 2785 is the short-term top, with a poor risk-reward ratio. Those holding long positions should hedge, keeping 30% in spot and opening 5% short positions with a stop loss at 2820; those with no positions should place buy orders at 2720, with a stop loss at 2690, targeting 2830. A reversal breakout requires a volume >1.2M to stabilize above 2800, and the MACD histogram must not shrink.
Pay attention to on-chain data for operations, derivatives can be hedged, strict stop losses, bullish defense line at 2754, and bearish defense line at 2801. The current IV index is high, with positions ≤3%, clear leverage before the CPI announcement.
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