Whale Alert

Bitcoin’s slide below $65,000 this week has sent shockwaves well beyond crypto markets, knocking mining stocks lower and piling onto pressure in Asian equities already reeling from a global tech sell-off. Price action and sentiment - The world's largest cryptocurrency briefly dipped to just above $60,000 — its weakest level in roughly 15 months — before mounting a modest rebound. Even with that recovery, market sentiment remains fragile as investors reassess risk amid uncertain macro conditions. - Bitcoin is now down roughly half from its October peak. On-chain flows: whales trim, retail steps in - On-chain analytics from Santiment show a notable shift in ownership during the sell-off. Large holders — defined as wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC (whales and sharks) — cut their share of circulating supply to about 68.04%, a nine-month low. - Those large wallets sold roughly 81,000 BTC over the past eight days, a period that coincided with Bitcoin’s slide from near $90,000 to the mid-$60,000 range. - At the same time, smaller holders have been accumulating: wallets with less than 0.1 BTC reached a 20-month high in their share of supply, indicating retail buyers are stepping in as prices fall. - Historically, similar dynamics — large holders selling into retail demand — have often been associated with extended bear phases. Risk indicators and equity fallout - The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to 9/100, its lowest reading since mid-2022. - The pressure on BTC quickly spilled into crypto-linked equities. Shares of major miners and Bitcoin proxies including Marathon Digital, Riot Platforms, Hut 8 and Strategy Inc. posted double-digit drops, with several hitting new 52-week lows. - Strategy Inc., one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, reported a sharply wider quarterly loss as falling prices knocked the value of its holdings, heightening concerns about balance-sheet risk if weak prices persist. - Analysts say the miner sell-off has been driven more by macro forces than company-specific news: miners act as high-beta plays on Bitcoin and therefore amplify broader market moves. Broader markets and drivers - Bitcoin’s decline also weighed on Asian bourses, which were already tracking losses on Wall Street led by technology stocks. Benchmarks in South Korea, Hong Kong and Australia fell, while Japan’s Nikkei managed modest gains after earlier declines. - Market participants pointed to a broader risk-off mood tied to U.S. monetary policy worries — notably President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, a pick perceived by some as less likely to support easy liquidity. Outlook - With large holders continuing to pare positions and financial conditions tightening, volatility looks set to persist across crypto assets, mining stocks and global markets. Short-term rebounds are possible, but investor caution is likely to remain the dominant theme. Cover image: ChatGPT; BTCUSD chart: TradingView. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

In a massive show of risk management, two of the most prominent Ethereum (ETH) whales offloaded a combined $371 million in assets over a 48-hour period to repay outstanding loans on Aave. These proactive moves by "BitcoinOG" and Hong Kong-based "Trend Research" come as the Aave protocol successfully processed over $140 million in automated liquidations, signaling a period of high volatility and caution among institutional-scale participants. While both entities remain heavily invested with over $3 billion in combined on-chain holdings, their decision to unwind leveraged positions suggests that even the market's most bullish "mega-whales" are trimming exposure as February 2026 begins.
BitcoinOG: The $292M Rebalancing Act
The entity known as BitcoinOG (1011short) executed a significant multi-asset shuffle to reduce its debt burden.
The Sale: The whale deposited 121,185 ETH (worth $292 million) into Binance over two days.The Repayment: Approximately $92.5 million in stablecoins were withdrawn to pay down Aave debt, representing only 31.7% of the sale proceeds. The remaining $200 million is likely being used for hedging or building cash reserves.Remaining Stash: Despite the dump, BitcoinOG still holds a staggering 30,661 BTC ($2.36B) and 783,514 ETH ($1.78B), confirming they are deleveraging rather than exiting the market.
Trend Research: The $79M Firm Deleveraging
Trend Research, an affiliate of LD Capital, took a more direct approach to debt settlement.
The Sale: The firm deposited 33,589 ETH (worth $79 million) into Binance within a 20-hour window.The Repayment: Almost the entire proceeds (77.5 million USDT) were immediately used to settle Aave loans.Strategic Shift: Trend Research had been aggressively accumulating ETH at an average entry of $3,265. This move signals a pivot from their "bullish Q1" stance to a more defensive posture, though they still retain over 618,000 ETH ($1.4B).
Aave: A $140M Stress Test
The voluntary whale repayments occurred alongside a massive wave of automated liquidations on the Aave protocol.
Automated Resilience: On January 31, Aave's smart contracts liquidated over $140 million in collateral across multiple networks as prices hit liquidation thresholds. Founder Stani Kulechov confirmed the system functioned perfectly without manual intervention.Fundamental Strength: Despite the turbulence, ETH deposits on Aave reached record highs in January, nearing 4 million ETH. The protocol continues to lead the DeFi sector in total value locked (TVL) for early 2026.
Essential Financial Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Reports of whale sales and Aave debt repayments are based on on-chain data as of February 2, 2026. DeFi lending involves significant liquidation risk; automated liquidations can occur rapidly if collateral values fall. Large-scale deleveraging by whales is a signal of caution but does not guarantee future price movements. Always conduct your own exhaustive research (DYOR) and consult with a licensed financial professional before engaging in leveraged trading or DeFi lending.

Is this $371M whale dump a sign of a "February crash," or just smart housekeeping by the market's biggest players?

On-chain data tracking large holders (1K–10K BTC, excluding exchanges and mining pools) suggests a notable shift in whale behavior following a prolonged distribution phase in late 2025. After reaching a local peak around mid-2025, total whale balances declined steadily as Bitcoin price remained elevated, indicating classic distribution into strength rather than forced selling.

The 30-day balance change metric confirms this dynamic. Throughout Q3 and early Q4, whale balances consistently posted negative monthly changes, coinciding with increased price volatility and weakening momentum. This divergence highlighted that upside price moves were increasingly driven by marginal buyers rather than sustained accumulation from large holders.

However, recent data shows a clear inflection. Both short-term (7-day) and medium-term (30-day) balance changes have turned positive, while total whale holdings have begun to stabilize and recover from their local lows. Historically, such transitions from net distribution to accumulation tend to occur during periods of price compression or post-correction phases, rather than at market tops.

From a macro on-chain perspective, the 1-year change in whale holdings remains relatively flat, suggesting that the broader cycle has not entered an aggressive accumulation regime yet. This implies the current behavior is more consistent with tactical re-positioning than long-term conviction buying.

In summary, whale activity is no longer exerting sustained sell pressure on Bitcoin supply. While this does not guarantee an immediate bullish continuation, it reduces downside risk and supports the view that the market is transitioning into a stabilization phase, where future price direction will depend on whether accumulation accelerates or stalls at current levels.

Written by CryptoZeno