nonfarm

The U.S. jobs market continues to exhibit strength with the government reporting the addition of 303,000 jobs last month. That's the strongest headline number since May 2023 and easily topped economist forecasts for 200,000 and February's 270,000 additions (revised from a previously reported 275,000).

The unemployment rate in March dipped to 3.8% against expectations for 3.9% and February's 3.9%.

The price of bitcoin {{BTC}} fell about 0.5% in the minutes following Friday morning's report to $66,000. In traditional markets, U.S. stock index futures gave up a chunk of earlier gains, but are still modestly higher. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 6.5 basis points to 4.38% and the dollar index added 0.5%.

Coming into 2024, markets had priced in as many as five or six U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts to begin as soon as March. The economic data, however, hasn't cooperated. Inflation has actually risen somewhat in the first quarter of the year and job growth has remained robust.

March has obviously come and gone with no rate cut and traders ahead of today's numbers had moved expectations of the first rate cut to June or July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A total of just three rate cuts are expected for the full year and even that could be too much.

Speaking yesterday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested the possibility of no rate cuts at all in 2024. His remarks prompted a sharp reversal in stocks, with the major averages closing down more than 1%. Just following today's numbers, swaps trading indicated expectations for the first rate cut had moved out to September.

Checking other report details, the labor force participation rate rose to 62.7% from 62.5%, suggesting sizable numbers of people returning to the workforce. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in March, in line with expectations and up from 0.2% in February. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings rose an in line 4.1%, down from 4.3% in February.

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 130,000 in January, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. This reading followed the 48,000 (revised from 50,000) increase recorded in December and came in above the market expectation of 70,000.
Other details of the report showed that the Unemployment Rate edged lower to 4.3% from 4.4%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.5% from 62.4%. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, held steady at 3.7%, compared to the market expectation of 3.6%.
"The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for November was revised down by 15,000, from +56,000 to +41,000, and the change for December was revised down by 2,000, from +50,000 to +48,000. With these revisions, employment in November and December combined is 17,000 lower than previously reported," the BLS noted in its press release.
Furthermore the BLS announced the changes in 2025 employment figures after finalizing annual benchmark revisions:
"The seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment level for March 2025 was revised downward by 898,000. On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the total nonfarm employment level for March 2025 was revised downward by 862,000, or -0.5 percent. Not seasonally adjusted, the absolute average benchmark revision over the prior 10 years is 0.2 percent. The change in total nonfarm employment for 2025 was revised from +584,000 to +181,000."
Market reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls data
The US Dollar (USD) gathered strength against its major rivals with the immediate reaction. At the time of press, the USD Index was up 0.35% on the day at 97.23.

Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 70K in January.The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.4%.The employment report could influence the Fed policy outlook and the US Dollar valuation.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT. 
#Nonfarm

Brothers, just as many people feared –

is plummeting after the ADP Nonfarm report for January 2026 released tonight (February 4, 2026)! The private employment index is only +22K – weaker than the forecast nearly double (+46K) and the lowest in many months. As a result, BTC dumped from the $80k-$83k range down to test $75k-$76k, even hitting a low of $72k during the session
Why does the "good" news (weak = dovish) turn into a "nightmare" for BTC? Let's analyze this drama in detail!

🚨🚨🚨Hey crypto brothers, tonight (4/2/2026) is another "hold your breath" moment! The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report for January 2026 – the employment index for the U.S. private sector – will officially be released at 20:15 Vietnam time (8:15 AM ET). This is not ordinary news, but a "hot preview" for the official NFP this Friday, and it could create huge volatility for Bitcoin, which is tiredly sideway around $72k-$78k. 💥💥💥

The first week of February 2026 is putting investors in a "holding their breath" state with a series of macroeconomic data that directly impacts global cash flow. From the U.S. jobs report to the interest rate decisions of European central banks, all are important pieces shaping the short-term trends of the cryptocurrency market.
Focus on Wednesday and Thursday: A dramatic prelude

After a bad weekend and a Saturday and Sunday to forget in the Crypto world, a very intense week begins.

-Monday, February 2:
S&P Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Results of Palantir.
-Tuesday, February 3:
Results of AMD, JOLTS job openings.
-Wednesday, February 4:
ADP report on private employment, Results of Alphabet.
-Thursday, February 5:
Results of Amazon, ECB decision.
-Friday, February 6:
Non-farm payrolls and Unemployment in the US.

Attention should be paid to two specific points. A good employment report, ahead of the JOLTS or ADP, will strengthen the dollar, eliminating the appetite for risk. This, along with the choice of Warsh, could be a bomb for the market.

The United States has just emerged from the longest government shutdown in its history, a 43-day halt that effectively froze core federal operations. As a result, critical economic indicators—including inflation and unemployment—were not released on schedule. Yet even with the government now reopened, several of these datasets are at risk of never being published.
Kevin Hassett, Chief Economic Advisor to President Trump, confirmed that October’s unemployment rate will not be released, marking the first time in 77 years that the figure has been withheld. Other White House officials acknowledged that major October datasets on employment and inflation may have “disappeared into a data black hole” due to the prolonged disruption in federal data collection.
Uncertainty also surrounds the October CPI print, with officials unable to confirm whether the inflation report can be reconstructed or published at all.
Economists warn that the absence—or partial loss—of these datasets could impair policy-making, distort market expectations, and significantly challenge analysts’ ability to accurately assess post-shutdown economic conditions. Missing data at this scale introduces a rare and material blind spot for both markets and policymakers.
The probability of a December rate adjustment by the Federal Reserve is narrowing, with labor-market and inflation data typically serving as the Fed’s most decisive inputs. The failure to publish these indicators risks creating an “information crisis”, complicating the Fed’s ability to anchor forward guidance and increasing uncertainty around its next policy move.
$MET #Nonfarm #Fed

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