The first week of February 2026 is putting investors in a "holding their breath" state with a series of macroeconomic data that directly impacts global cash flow. From the U.S. jobs report to the interest rate decisions of European central banks, all are important pieces shaping the short-term trends of the cryptocurrency market.
Focus on Wednesday and Thursday: A dramatic prelude
Kicking off the series of events is the ADP employment data on February 4th. Although it is just a report from the private sector, it is often seen as a barometer for the official report. The situation is that if ADP exceeds the forecast of 45,000, we will see the USD strengthen, putting direct pressure on BTC prices.
Following that, on Thursday, February 5th, the market will have to process two streams of information at once: the number of unemployment claims and the interest rate decision from the Bank of England (BoE) and the European Central Bank (ECB). It is forecasted that both banks will maintain the interest rates, indicating a temporary stability but also caution.
Fiery Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate
This is the "final match" of the week. The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on February 6th will determine the market trend in the coming weeks.
NFP forecast: 55,000 (Previous period 50,000)
Unemployment rate: 4.4%
If the actual number of jobs is lower than expected, it will strengthen the expectation that the Fed may have to ease monetary policy sooner, which is very good news for Crypto. Conversely, if the labor market is too "hot", the USD will surge and you might witness a deep correction.
Those who have been in the market long enough probably understand the saying "buy the rumor, sell the news". However, with macroeconomic data, volatility often occurs right when the number is released.
Limit trading close to news time: About 15-30 minutes before and after the news release is when liquidity fluctuates the most, making it very easy to experience slippage.
Following the USD index (DXY): The situation is that Crypto and DXY often move in opposite directions. When U.S. data is good, DXY rises and Crypto tends to fall.
Concerned about tariff decisions: This is a new factor that could affect the operating costs of businesses, indirectly impacting investment flows.
This week is not for risk-loving players without a plan. Keep a cool head and strictly adhere to the risk management strategy that has been laid out.
