moonmanmacro

USA: Unemployment Claims Update

🔴 Initial Jobless Claims: 227K
Forecast: 222K
Previous: 231K

The number came in slightly above expectations, but still lower than last week’s reading.

So what does that tell us?

The labor market isn’t breaking — but it is slowly cooling off. We’re not seeing signs of a sharp downturn, just a gradual loss of momentum from previously overheated conditions.

For the Federal Reserve, this matters.

Softer employment data reduces the urgency to keep policy aggressively tight. If this cooling trend continues, it strengthens the case for easing later on.

For crypto, that leans moderately positive.

A softer economy increases the probability of rate cuts, and rate cuts typically mean more liquidity — which risk assets tend to favor.

That said, one report doesn’t define the trend.

Markets move based on a series of data points, not a single print.

#MoonManMacro

🇺🇸 Trump hints at a "different" Fed
Trump stated that the US economy could grow by 15% under Kevin Warsh's leadership and called Powell's appointment a "big mistake".
The key here is not the number 15%.
The key is the signal.
This is a direct message:
👉 the next course of the Fed should be more growth-oriented
👉 lower rates
👉 more liquidity
The Fed is formally independent. But markets trade expectations, not formalities.
If there is a feeling that monetary policy will become softer after the elections —
risk-assets will start to price this in advance.
BTC always reacts first to changes in liquidity.
For now, this is just a narrative.
But big trends start precisely from narratives.
#MoonManMacro $BTC

⚡ USA: unemployment assistance claims

🔴 Initial Jobless Claims: 227K
Forecast: 222K
Previous: 231K

The fact is slightly worse than expected, but lower than the previous value.

What does this mean?

The labor market is not collapsing, but is gradually losing its overheated momentum.
This is not a signal of a crisis — it is a signal of slow cooling.

And for the Fed, this is important:
the more soft employment data, the fewer arguments to maintain a tight policy.

For crypto — moderately positive.
Weaker economy = higher likelihood of rate cuts = more liquidity.

But for now, this is just one element of the mosaic.
The trend is formed not by individual figures, but by the sequence of reports.

#MoonManMacro

🇺🇸 Trump hints at a "different" Fed

Trump stated that the US economy could grow by 15% under Kevin Warsh's leadership and called Powell's appointment a "big mistake".

The key here is not the number 15%.
The key is the signal.

This is a direct message:
👉 the next course of the Fed should be more growth-oriented
👉 lower rates
👉 more liquidity

The Fed is formally independent. But markets trade expectations, not formalities.

If there is a feeling that monetary policy will become softer after the elections —
risk-assets will start to price this in advance.

BTC always reacts first to changes in liquidity.
For now, this is just a narrative.

But big trends start precisely from narratives.

#MoonManMacro

⚡ USA: the labor market is still alive

🔴 Average Hourly Earnings m/m: 0.4% (expected 0.3%)
🔴 NFP: 130K (expected 70K)
🔴 Unemployment: 4.3% (better than forecast)

After weak retail sales, the market has already begun to dream of a quick easing.
But these numbers cool optimism.

Wages are rising faster than expected — this is a direct inflationary factor.
Employment is above expectations — the economy is not collapsing.
Unemployment is not rising — no crises on the horizon.

And that means one thing:
The Fed has no reason to rush to cut rates.

For $BTC and other crypto, the signal is moderately negative.
Strong economy = longer high rates = more expensive dollar = less liquidity.

And here it gets interesting: the market is starting to tear between "consumer weakening" and "strong labor market."
When macro contradicts itself — volatility is just beginning.

#MoonManMacro

⚡ USA: the consumer hit the brakes

🔴 Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.0% (expected 0.3%)
🔴 Retail Sales m/m: 0.0% (expected 0.4%)

After 0.5–0.6% earlier — this is no longer noise. This is a pause.

The American consumer is the main engine of the US economy. When he stops, the Fed cannot be “tight” for long. The market immediately prices in greater chances of rate cuts.

The classic result:
— dollar under pressure
— yields down
— risk-on assets get air

For BTC, this is moderately positive. But without euphoria.
One report does not change the trend — it only shifts expectations.

The real movement will begin when the Fed confirms this with actions, not rhetoric.

#MoonManMacro

📌 The "Satoshi address" received 2.56 BTC

The transaction is confirmed. On-chain - everything is clean.
But let's avoid fantasies.

This is a transfer TO an address that researchers associate with early Satoshi mining.
This is not the movement of his coins. Not a "waking up". Not a market signal.

Such transactions happen regularly:
— someone "burns" BTC
— someone makes a symbolic gesture
— someone just wants to make headlines

Coins from early wallets do not move for years. And until this happens - everything else is just noise.

The market is currently in a phase of stress. People are looking for signs.
But the blockchain is not mysticism, it's mathematics.

And 2.56 BTC do not change the macro cycle.
For now.
#MoonManMacro

🔐 The quantum fear surrounding BTC is greatly exaggerated

CoinShares calms the panic: the development of quantum computing is currently not an urgent threat to bitcoin. The real risk pertains only to old P2PK addresses with exposed public keys.

Currently, there are about 1.6 million BTC on them. But the critical mass for the market is only ~10,200 BTC — that's the amount whose compromise could trigger a shock. The rest is scattered across tens of thousands of addresses and is technically too complex a target even in theory.

In short: quantum computers are an interesting topic for headlines. For the market - not yet.
#MoonManMacro

#BreakingNews
🇻🇳 Vietnam brings crypto into the tax net
Starting July 1, 2026, Vietnam will classify crypto transactions alongside equity trading.
Individuals will be charged 0.1% per transaction, no matter whether the trade ends in profit or loss.
This move isn’t about suppression — it’s formalization.
Crypto isn’t being rejected; it’s being absorbed into the existing financial framework.
Less ambiguity. More supervision.
And another clear sign that regulators are no longer playing catch-up.
$BTC
#USIranStandoff #BitcoinGoogleSearchesSurge #WhenWillBTCRebound
#MoonManMacro

📉 BTC Historical Drawdowns: Key Insights

Over 14 years, Bitcoin bear cycles have dropped at least 75% from peaks, though each bottom tends to be less painful.

📊 Current Cycle Projection: Potential bottom around $38,000 (based on past cycles, not a forecast).

⚡️ But markets have changed: ETFs, institutional demand, and new liquidity structures could disrupt historical patterns—or reinforce them.

#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoCycles #MoonManMacro #MarketInsights

🇯🇵 Japanese markets celebrate a change of power

The Nikkei 225 index soared by 6% and set a new historical high after Takaiti's victory in the elections for the Prime Minister of Japan.

The market reads the signal simply: expectations of stimulus, softer fiscal policy, and support for the corporate sector.
A classic risk-on scenario — when political certainty immediately translates into rising asset prices.

And yes, global markets are paying close attention to Japan. Not just because of the yen.

#MoonManMacro #JapanEconomy

Circle and Tether control 84.8% of the stablecoin market

In fact, the entire segment boils down to two issuers. USDT and USDC have become the financial infrastructure of the crypto market, rather than just a "convenient dollar".

It's about liquidity, trust, and regulatory compromise.

At the same time, it's about risk concentration. When the system relies on two players, any crack becomes systemic.

Decentralization, you say? Here it looks quite conditional.

#MoonManMacro

🇻🇳 Vietnam officially enters crypto taxation

Starting from July 1, 2026, transactions with digital assets in Vietnam will be equated to stock trading.
Individuals will pay 0.1% on each crypto transaction, regardless of profit or loss.

This is not a ban or pressure – it is legalization through taxes.
The state clearly signals: crypto remains, but becomes part of the financial system.

Fewer gray areas. More control. And fewer illusions that regulators "won't catch up".

#MoonManMacro

⚡ U.S. MACRO SIGNAL: PRESSURE EASING
🇺🇸 Fresh data shows U.S. consumers are calming down.
Consumer sentiment came in stronger than expected, while inflation expectations fell from 4.0% to 3.5% — a key shift in perception.
📊 What this tells markets • The economy is being viewed as more stable
• One less reason for the Fed to stay aggressively hawkish
• Reduced macro stress across risk assets
🧠 Implications for crypto No explosive bull run — but something just as important: relief.
Lower fear = fewer panic-driven selloffs.
Markets are stabilizing not on growth catalysts, but on easing tension.
🌍 Sometimes, the absence of pressure is the signal.
#MoonManMacro #Macro #Fed #Inflation #CryptoMarkets

⚡ Signal from the USA: consumers are calming down

Previous consumer sentiment turned out to be higher than expected, while inflation expectations dropped from 4.0% to 3.5%. The market is beginning to perceive the economy as more stable.

For the Fed, this is one less argument to maintain a tough rhetoric. For crypto - no bull run, but a clear anti-stress. Less fear means fewer impulsive sales.

The market is now driven not by growth drivers, but by the easing of tension. And this is also important.

#MoonManMacro

🇪🇺 The EU has presented the 20th sanctions package against the Russian Federation. Crypto is back in focus.

Formally - another package. Essentially - yet another step towards completely cutting off financial circuits.

Key points:
1) another 20 regional banks in the Russian Federation are banned from any transactions with the EU
2) the digital ruble is officially recognized as toxic, any operations with it for EU residents are prohibited
3) crypto: direct ban on interaction with Russian crypto providers + sanctions against those who help circumvent restrictions
4) separately - pressure on banks in third countries that act as proxies.

This is no longer about symbolism. This is about controlling flows.
And about the fact that crypto has finally ceased to be a "gray area" for regulators.

The market will still digest this. But the rules of the game have once again become stricter.

#MoonManMacro